Snow Moving In…

February 29, 2012

Here is the 3z version of our RPM model snowfall forecast.  Interesting it shows the snowfall down in the central Valley nicely…a 2″ swath through Salem too!  Snow/rain intensity has definitely been on the increase as mentioned in the earlier post.  If the 4km WRF-GFS is correct, it’ll be mostly gone by 1-2am.  We’ll see about that.  Either way, enjoy the snow down south in Salem and here in the metro area quite a few of us will get sticking snow the next few hours too.

Heading home now…Mark


The Next Few Hours

February 29, 2012

A small disturbance is moving into the Central Coast range, enhancing the showers there and they are spreading into parts of the Central/Northern Willamette Valley. This, along with cooling temps, brings back the possibility of snow sticking to lower elevations…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Weather Fit Only For Ducks Today

February 29, 2012

The best chance for widespread sticking snow this time around has passed at the lowest elevations this morning with warming daytime temps.  So far, it appears we didn’t officially have measurable sticking snow at the Portland NWS Forecast Office and most lower elevations had a dusting at best.  The gusty southerly wind isn’t helping; it keeps the air stirred up so a heavy snow shower doesn’t have a chance to cool the area below it down close to freezing. 

The snow level is up around 1,000 to 1,500′ right now.  It’ll generally stay there through this evening.

We could still see some fun this afternoon (next paragraph) then things wind down AFTER sunset.  Models are really drying us out after that time. 
Heavy showers & sun breaks, possible hail or thunder, could be a brief dusting ANYWHERE for a few minutes if you get a heavy shower, but most of us just see rain/snow mixed.  High near 43.
Showers die down or it may even totally dry out. 
A sprinkle or flurry, likely no new snow in the metro area for the morning commute, and just light dustings in Coast Range and hills.  Low near 32.

Partly cloudy, a shower or two, still cool…45

For those of you up in the hills, still many more inches to go before we dry out overnight and tomorrow morning.  Maybe 2-4″ additional up near and above 1,500′.

I have to say, I hate this weather…it’s not like a nice frozen snow event, but it’s the coldest rain/wet snow you can get and you can’t really enjoy being outdoors.  Could it just go one way or another?  A true Oregon duck doesn’t seem to mind this stuff, here’s a nice pic of Chit-Chat, or it might be Quacker.  I can’t tell, both of the ladies look the same. 

Looking farther ahead, we get more typical early March temps Saturday-Sunday and maybe Monday, but then another chilly airmass with snow in the hills later next Monday-Wednesday.  Beyond that is up in the air.   GFS keeps us cool, ECMWF is notably warmer about 8 days from now.  Interesting (or depressing) to note the GFS chart for Minneapolis (2nd chart)  is warmer than Portland (1st chart) after Monday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Snow Totals: Leap Day Edition

February 29, 2012

If you had a half inch or more this morning, put your total here.

We just need 3 bits of info:



ELEVATION (if you know it)

Thanks, keep commenting on weather on other postings, I’ll delete anything other than totals here.


On To “Showers & Clearing Periods” Weather

February 28, 2012

Okay, now that the steady precipitation has moved on, we’ve had our rain and it’s time to cool the atmosphere a bit.  So our best chance for a little sticking snow here in the lowest elevations will be the next two mornings.

This is VERY similar to what we saw last Saturday; hail, downpours, sun, maybe thunder, and just some plain exciting weather.  I’ll give it a 50/50 chance of measurable snow at the Portland Forecast Office, maybe a 30% chance of an inch or more.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

5pm Update: Rain Continues

February 28, 2012

Looks like that roast is totally cooked (see yesterday’s post); no snow event this afternoon/evening in the lowest elevations.  It’s been too warm not only at the surface but also above.  Better chance for snow late tonight and tomorrow morning.  6am-10am should be real interesting.  Here’s our forecast for this evening:

2pm Update: Mainly Rain So Far…

February 28, 2012

Things are working out well this afternoon with mainly rain showers falling below 1,500’ west of the Cascades.  At times some snowflakes have been mixed in, but all temps are between 36 & 43 degrees across the metro area and even the top of our transmission tower is above freezing now.  

NOW-7:00 PM:
Rain picks up, turns steady, could briefly mix with snow anywhere, but probably mainly or all rain.  Breezy too.  Temps near 40.

 7:00 PM – 11:00 PM: 
The rain backs off to light showers, mixing with snow up above 1,000’ later.  No sticking in the metro area, but turning snowy over Coast Range and Cascades.  Temps 35-40.

The Rest of the Night & Morning Commute: 
Rain and snow showers, snow could briefly stick anywhere by the time we get to the morning commute; very similar to what we saw Saturday.  Everyone will at least see snow in the air for GDO.  Higher elevations get 1-3”, mainly near and above 1,000’.

 Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen