Forecast Accuracy 2009-2022

Around 2007 I began tracking accuracy of my forecasts for a few years. Then I started posting it online in 2009.  After getting tired of the “you guys are ALWAYS wrong” calls and emails, I figured it’s time to post the stats online. What follows is data from a 13 year period ending in the summer of 2022. By that time, I realized it was pretty much the same each year; most of the time our forecasts are pretty accurate! You just remember the few really big misses (forecast busts).

The criteria I used? I tracked low/high forecast temp for PDX (Portland International Airport), a central location in the metro area.  I track just my forecasts which are generally Monday-Friday.  The forecast must be within 3 degrees of the actual temp for the following calendar day.  For rainfall it’s a bit more straightforward;  if rain is forecast and it is too little to get measured at PDX I’m wrong.  Same with a no rain forecast and rain actually arrives.  In the comments section I give my thoughts and grade myself down if the numbers down seem to represent reality.  For example:  I say it’s going to rain tomorrow by late morning.  Then let’s say the rain doesn’t arrive until 11pm, leaving the day “rainy” in the climate stats, but to any normal person it didn’t REALLY rain.  Got to mark myself down some for that.  Or there is no category for “major screwups” (2-7″ unexpected snowfall 12/2009), which don’t really fall into rain/clouds or temp columns.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen












18 Responses to Forecast Accuracy 2009-2022

  1. Mike says:

    Another big miss on the forcast today. This morning they said Sunny by noon here it is 2 and still no sunshine good job guys

  2. Anonymous says:

    Andy, it’s pouring here at Depoe Bay on the oregon coast

  3. James says:

    When is the cold weather going to finally end. This April seems a lot colder than normal. It’s one thing to live with the rain. But cold rain sucks! What does the longer term look like. Thx.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Mark, we live in Sumpter, Or., in the Elkhorn mtns. Our local channels ,on Dish or Direct TV, are Portland stations. We have notice that you stand infront of us everytime you do the weather & also barely even mention us. Hey ” we are over here”. Eastern Orego. Isnt Bend, Redmond etc. Andy atleast covers our weather & gives a detail report. We the people of Sumpter would like to be included in your forcast.

  5. Veronica De Motto says:

    Yeah well thanks for lying about the weather today!!! Just fully washed and detailed my car by hand and it’s freaking raining now in Beaverton!!!!!! Lies, all lies!!!!!

  6. Madeline says:

    Any idea what Saterday and Sunday will bring to Beaverton, just looked at your forecast of snow?


    we always watch fox12 news, but we scratch our heads over weather,we live in OTIS AND OUR TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH TH SAME AS YOURS BUT YOU ALWAYS SAY WERE LIKE LINCLN CITY?

  8. Evelyn Fuller says:

    Hey y’all, on ur weather broadcast last week and today u have wrong info Damascus is in Gresham’s place on the map. Pleadease fix it. Thank you!

  9. sajtsajt says:

    Your percentages are great, because weather predictions more then 2 days are with low accuracy.

  10. William T. Matthews says:

    There was a snow storm on March 15 2002 with hugh snow flakes
    in Columbia county, we know this as a fact because this was our first date almost 10 years ago. There was a motor vehicle accident that night 2 miles south of Rainier, Oregon due to snow.

  11. gidrons says:

    Do you track accuracy 3 days out?

  12. I am totally delighted with your weather predictions!!! .This gal has been tracking seismic activity and a quake is forecasted for the 10th by the geological service and she agrees and shows why. I thought it deserved a look!!! Please look at the video? Tx, Della

  13. bobby says:

    how long is it going to rain today???

  14. bobby says:

    great call on the no rain we are receiving right now missed that one genius!

  15. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro) says:

    Nice one! I agree with the percentages so far…

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