Quite a gloomy day today with low clouds and occasional drizzle/sprinkles all day long. Pretty mild though. I stood outside with just a fleece jacket at the KMart in Beaverton for 1 hour collecting toys for kids (via FOX-12). I never got cold, so that's pretty good for the end of November. I see we are still sitting at 50 degrees at the 9pm hour. Without much clearing it'll be a mild night too.
Dead weather this weekend with surface high pressure almost directly overhead tomorrow, then shifting to our east for Sunday. Upper level heights go nuts the next 48 hours…peaking above 580dm on the 500mb chart by Sunday AM. A very warm atmosphere on the way with 850mb temps peaking around +15 to +16 Sunday PM. Normally I'd totally ignore this for the last day of November due to inversions, but we just START with an east wind Sunday morning and skies may not clear out until that time. If we get left with no fog in the morning, some mixing from the east midday, and then plenty of sunshine, we could get surprisingly warm. So I went down the middle and went with a high of 55. That's as opposed to an "inversiony" 50 or well-mixed lower 60s.
I have a big beef with the 00z GFS rainfall totals for next week. Heights are awfully high for rain after Tuesday and each run it seems to gradually be giving us more and more longwave ridging through the end of the week. That's much more like the 12z ECMWF. In fact 1/2 of the 12z GFS ensembles showed strong upper-level ridging bouncing back midweek like the ECMWF. So I've ignored the constant rain that the 00z GFS shows from Monday night through Friday.
As for the graphic, I noticed the record low maximum for today is 27 degrees at PDX. I remember sledding on Thanksgiving Day back in 1985 (in Chehalis). Today was the date. I just looked at the maps from the 2nd half of November that year…brrr! Ah, the good old days! Mark Nelsen