11:30pm Wednesday 11/30 – Not So Alone

Looks like Rod over at KATU and Jeff at KOIN are heading towards no sticking snow, especially Rod.  But KGW is going full speed snowstorm ahead…

I’ll admit I’m nervous…and probably a sleepless night ahead!  But TTD (Troutdale, I’m going to use those identifiers in this blog since lots of you are really weather saavy folks) is now up to 41 degrees and E 17 mph.  That is definitely NOT chilly air pouring out of the Gorge.  I think the only way we could get snow in the morning is an hour or two of very heavy, sustained precip as the east wind dies down.  It’s happened before, but I still don’t think the precip will be heavy enough.

By the way, we tried something new tonight on the newscast.  Actually it was Wayne’s idea.  Take all the other forecasts in town and stack them up.  Very interesting to see other weather folks on my station.  Like a little weather family reunion eh?  Any thoughts on that?  Otherwise it’s home for a short night of sleep.  Mark

Snow or no snow?

Wow folks…I’d have to say this is one of my toughest forecasts…I actually made the forecast at midday (for little to no snow) and then the NWS upgraded to a warning for the metro area.  I have never (in 13 years here) been in a situation where I called for now snow and the NWS actually had a warning up.  This is going to be real interesting.

My reasons?

1.  Not cold enough with cold air coming from the east.  Where the east wind is blowing as of 9:30pm in the Gorge, temperatures are only near 40 degrees!  To get sticking snow with an east wind in Portland, we need about 28-30 degrees as the Corbett Middle School sensor.  Right now it’s 38!

2.  No source of cold air to the east…other than brief overnight cooling in the Columbia Basin, there is no good supply of cold air out there…at least no more than we had with Monday’s non-event that was similar.

3.  Will we get heavy precip?  That’s what can really cause a quick burst of 1-2" even if it’s only 32-34 degrees.  Looks unlikely to me.  All in all it just doesn’t look cold enough and the precip not heavy enough.

Either I or the NWS and at least one other TV forecaster are going to look pretty bad tomorrow, but hey!  I’m going down in flames if possible!  Mark

Mark Nelsen’s latest forecast

Today is a sort of "calm before the storm" across the region. Except for a few scattered showers, most areas remain dry. High near 45.

A strong storm is developing offshore and should spread lots of snow & rain across the region beginning late tonight.

The big question of the day…will is snow in Portland. I don’t think it will be quite cold enough for sticking snow below 1000′ in the metro area. Snow will mix with the rain Thursday morning, but no sticking snow for most of us…Mark Nelsen