ECMWF Weekly Maps & Ensemble Charts

February 9, 2012

Fresh maps…last night’s 00z ECMWF run out to one month:

First week 500mb height anomaly from Feb 13th-19th.  This starts Monday next week.  Slightly below average heights over us and the last of weak ridging offshore:

2nd week – Feb 20th-26th.  Ridge attempts to rebuild slightly farther offshore, cool troughs drop over us for below average heights:

3rd week – Feb 27th-Mar4th.  Continued westward movement of features as cool upper-level troughing is centered a bit farther offshore.  Cool and showery March weather arrives right on cue?

4th week – Mar5th-11th.  More of the same, slightly below average heights with troughing centered a little to our west.  Continued cool and showery.

So could we see a cold blast in the next 2+ weeks? GFS and ECMWF ensemble members say it’s unlikely. Although both emphasize what you see above, cooler than average weather.  Some members from both models also suggest snow could return to the foothills at times with 850mb temps below -5 here and there.  

First the GFS:

Then the ECMWF: