A chilly Valentines Day out there with numerous showers moving in from the west-northwest. We had one report of a possible funnel cloud over the Aumsville area around 3pm, but radar didn’t show any rotation. No reason there couldn’t have been one in this pattern though. Showers seem to be dying down now north of the Columbia River; or north of a line between Astoria and Longview. As that passes through this evening showers will die down. The sticking snow level seems to be around 1,500′ on average right now, of course that means 500′ in a heavy dump of hail/rain/snow, but 2,000′ freezing level otherwise.
Tomorrow will probably be the only dry day since now it appears we get total slop (clouds & light rain) most of Thursday and Friday. Then a nice little core of cold air moves overhead Saturday again for a day like today. As models have advertised for quite a while, the 2nd half of February, which begins tomorrow, will see wetter conditions and cooler than normal weather.
The only variation on the long-range maps is how close the upper-level ridge is going to be to us beyond the 7-10 day period. The trend the past two days among the 15 day maps I see (GFS, ECMWF, & GEM) seems to be to keep it a little closer to us until about the end of the month.
No models are showing an arctic blast in the next two weeks. So it appears we’re going to skate through the rest of winter without a damaging freeze; good news for fruit trees, gardeners and farmers. Bad news for the plumbing business.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen