Nowadays I post to our station website, then when I have time I copy the post to this site.
Since this is a simple copy/paste, you’ll notice occasional formatting errors, or extra large/small text. You also can’t click on most images to take a closer look since it’s a simple copy/paste.
The reason for this is that with a company change we’ve moved to new blog composer. I like the new one much better so I write over there and then copy here for future use/research. I strongly encourage you to bookmark/use this site: https://www.kptv.com/weather/blog/ And I thank you for reading all these posts for the past 17 years!
Comments Off on Weather Blog Note | Weather | Permalink Posted by Mark Nelsen
Does it seem that this spring “isn’t so bad” so far? By that I mean we’re getting a nice mix of some wet days but plenty of dry days and sunshine too. Looking at the numbers, that IS the case this year. And it appears the very dry weather is here to stay for another week or two. Last year the first 3 weeks of April were unusually cold and wet…so apparently this is makeup for that? These stats are from April 1st-23rd LAST YEAR
We’ve seen less than 1″ rain in Portland so far this month; ignore McMinnville, that sensor has been offline for awhile.
Plenty of dry days this month too; I’ve noticed my garden is relatively dry for mid-April, that’s after a slightly dry March (compared to normal).
What a contrast to the 5″+ rainfall months the past two Aprils!
WHAT’S AHEAD?
I see more drier-than-average rainfall as we move through the 2nd half of the month.
Drier than normal weather likely continues for another 7-14 days
Temperatures will also be warmer than average since we won’t have many wet systems around to keep us cool
You need to start watering outdoor pots/containers later this week as a dry east wind arrives. Or anything freshly planted in the ground too
But don’t worry about grass/shrubs/trees, there is still plenty of water in the ground…for now.
There’s no sign of a “hot spell”. In April that would be temperatures in the 80s.
Take a look at 500mb heights; the 15 day (average) anomaly from the GFS model. The warm colors represent higher than average heights; more ridging than normal. In general we’ve got ridging over the west more often than troughing. That equals warmer/drier vs. cooler/wetter
An animation showing the same product from the Euro model ensembles. It looks similar. Technically this is a 7-day average starting one week out and going to two weeks out in time. So much orange/red! Reminds me of last summer when we saw so much of the tropics and subtropics with above normal heights.
And one more…precipitation anomaly (from ECMWF/Euro) over the next two weeks…dry West Coast! Well, not dry, but much drier than normal.
The actual numbers say less than 1″ rain in these next two weeks in western valleys of Oregon and SW Washington
That’s it for this evening…we’ve just got a few sprinkles tomorrow, then a very weak trough Saturday for a shower chance once again. Enjoy the sunshine this week!
I’m back from a road/flying trip to Dallas for the solar eclipse. It was a great week traveling through the Intermountain West and southern Rockies with my son. Three days of mountain biking in Utah, hot springs in southern Colorado, and great New Mexican food in Santa Fe. Who knew that spicy red and green stuff could be SO good? We also toured Los Alamos since I’m a big history fan.
You already know how eclipse day worked out if you follow me on Twitter or Facebook; my son and I were lucky! The flight from Santa Fe to Dallas on eclipse morning was right on time, then we headed out to one of the airport parking garage roofs. They were all full of people; apparently I wasn’t the only one with that plan. There were no high (cirrus) clouds, just puffy cumulus drifting by with maybe 1/4 sky coverage. In the last 5 minutes before totality the sun was coming and going behind those clouds. In fact in the last minute a great “Nooooo!” could be heard across the roofs as the beginning of totality was behind a cloud. But within 20 seconds, the cloud moved away, leaving us with approximately 2 minutes and 30 seconds of unobstructed viewing. It was just like August 2017, but lasted longer. As always, a surreal experience, but even more so surrounded by an active airport scene; jets taking off on both sides with all their lights on and people inside the glass concourses staring out the windows. The approach of the shadow from the southwest was more obvious to me this time for some reason. Same as when the shadow left. And that “diamond ring effect” as the first rays of light return is just stunning! Flight back to PDX was just two hours later and we were home before sunset; a memorable day!
Remember we were expecting a moderate-strong El Niño event this year and that’s what occurred. In fact we are still in moderate conditions right now. The ONI peaked at 2.0 in the November-January period, making it a STRONG El Niño event by that standard. But the MEI, another way of measuring these events, was more in the moderate category, not like the big El Niños of 2015-16, 1997-98, & 1982-83
Many El Niño winters are a bit drier and warmer than normal across our region, but this year only the warmer part worked out. All the moderate-strong winters since 1950 look like this; the typical drier PACNW and wetter California
Average wet season precipitation in moderate/strong El Niño winters
But this year the wetness was a bit farther north. That said, in general it was drier than normal to the north and wetter than normal to the south as one went from British Columbia to California.
Portland has been quite wet and it’s clear our water year will end up wetter than normal once it wraps up in late September
(kptv)
Temperatures were a bit warmer than normal this winter (minus that one week in January!). That was the story all across the USA
Mountain snow pack was surprisingly good in the end…on April 1st most of Oregon was near or above average.
And the December-February critical ski season time APPEARS to be quite good right???
But we had at least two events where heavy snowfall was immediately followed by warm pineapple express rains and melting. Government Camp picked up about 2 feet of snow in early December which all melted. The 36.5″ monthly total at Govy meant nothing because all of it melted and there was little/no snow on the ground during the two week Christmas Break. Again, 90″ of snow fell there in January. But by the first week of February only 14″ was left on the ground after unusually warm late January weather. Mid-February onward was fine though as another series of snowy storms brought the snowpack up to around 4 feet which lingered through most of March. The mountains had plenty of snow this winter, but timing was terrible and it was often followed by warm/wet weather.
That’s it for this evening. We have pretty typical April weather ahead with some sunny and warm days but some showery days too. There’s no sign of an extended warm spell OR extended wet/cool spell. Not so bad this year compared to the cold/wet weather last early/mid April.
I’ll be on vacation for the next 10 days heading to the solar eclipse in Texas (pray for clear sky!), so I figure I should write a quick check-in post before I leave.
We typically see weather “slow down” a bit in the springtime west of the Cascades. We tend to see several, or many, days of wet weather followed by a few days of warm sunshine. That has sure been the case this month! Check out the wide variation in high temperatures this month. Blue is below normal, red above, and gray near average.
It’s been a bit warmer than average this month, just as we saw in February. I just checked all “strong” El Niño” late winters and early springs back to 1950. ALL of them have featured average to above average temperatures in Portland. There isn’t a single one of those 10 years that ended up colder than average. Precipitation has been a bit below average as well. We’re ending up with just under 3″ for the month which ends Sunday evening
THE BIG PICTURE
We are in a 5 day warm/dry spell. That ends after Tuesday. Enjoy the warm sunshine this weekend! Temperatures will be chilly at night though…patchy frost is likely in outlying areas Saturday and possibly Sunday morning
At least 3 days of cool/showery weather follows Wednesday-Friday next week. Snow levels come down to at least 2,000′ in the mornings, possibly as low as 1,500′ or so. Sticking snow in (early) April is not too unusual at those elevations. At 1,000′ just east of Corbett, I’ve picked up at least 1/2″ snow (in April) 4 of the past 16 years.
There are hints that 10-15 days from now another warm (and drier) period will arrive.
Right now we’ve got a cool upper-level trough just to our south, the same one that just gave us 3 days of cool/wet weather. It’ll be hanging over California for the holiday weekend.
That trough moves away and the big ridge of high pressure to our west is directly over us by Tuesday.
That should be the warmest day of the next four. The atmosphere isn’t nearly as warm as two weeks ago with we saw some mid-upper 70s. We also don’t get any significant easterly/offshore wind over the next few days.
(kptv)
`Then by next Thursday a cold trough has dipped down over us once again. 850mb temps drop down to around -5 or -6 degC. At nighttime or early in the morning an atmosphere this cold CAN produce snow in the air in the lowlands if vigorous showers are passing over. In fact 4 of 50 ECMWF ensemble members produce 2″ snow in the northern Willamette Valley next Thursday or Friday morning. So I’m sayin’…there’s a chance!
You can sure see the rapid change from Tuesday to Wednesday on the 6hr max temp chart from the ECMWF model. Each horizontal line is one of those 50 members. It’s pretty clear-cut that Tuesday is the warmest day. Then you see some warmer members appearing again around the 9th-11th.
So our 7 Day forecast looks like this as we head into early April. I’d call that a perfect spring mix! A little something for everyone.
Alright, I won’t be posting again until around the 9th or beyond. Make sure you are following my professional Facebook page because I’ll probably post some trip pics there as my son and I head from Utah to New Mexico and over to Texas.
It was glorious while it lasted! 6 days of sunshine and warm afternoon temperatures in March. But all good things come to an end. Sure enough we’ve got a cloudy and much cooler day on tap tomorrow. Then it’s on to lots of showers as Oregon’s spring break arrives this weekend. Normal weather is back for the foreseeable future.
THE NUMBERS
This event will go down as one of the top 2-3 warm/sunny periods in March history west of the Cascades. Similar events occurred in 1941, 1947, 1978, and 2005.
It may be many years before we see this again in March; it had been 19 years since that last extended sunny/warm spell in 2005.
Portland saw 5 consecutive days at/above 70 degrees; that is only the 3rd time we’ve seen that happen in March during the 84 year period-of-record out at PDX.
Portland hit 76-77 for 3 consecutive days. When you include the low temperatures those days, it’s the warmest 3-day (March) period in Portland’s history. We tied a record high on Sunday and broke Monday’s daily record. We did NOT reach the all-time 80 degree March high temp.
Record daily highs were also set at times in Hillsboro, Salem, McMinnville, Eugene, and Astoria. The gusty east wind days (Friday/Saturday) produced 70-75 degree highs out at the coastline. A switch to onshore flow Saturday evening led to a much cooler day Sunday out there. The numbers for Saturday the 16th here.
What a change this past week compared to the first 10 days of March! Sure enough, winter was over after those cold rain/snow showers the first weekend of the month. Now the March temperature is running slightly above normal.
Of course it’s been drier than normal too; no rain for about a week and the monthly total is running a bit below normal.
WHAT’S AHEAD?
A major push of marine air is in progress this evening. Lots of clouds and much cooler weather west of the Cascades tomorrow.
A couple of weak weather disturbances bring a few light showers later Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday (wettest day).
More significant showers are likely Saturday plus two organized cold fronts bring rounds of rain/wind Monday/Tuesday.
There’s no sign of another multi-day dry spell in the next 7-10 days
You can see that by Saturday a cool upper-level trough is swinging through the region…typically we see abundant showers mixed with sunbreaks and cooler than average temps in this pattern
Then by next Monday a strong westerly jet is pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Wet and occasionally windy; this doesn’t scream “SPRING BREAK!” does it?
The big question…once we turn wet this week, are there any other multi-day periods of dry weather in sight? NOPE! Take a look at 24-hr precip from the ECMWF ensembles. Each horizontal line on top part of chart is one ensemble member out through the next 15 days.
Pretty solid isn’t it? Not many clear gaps in there.
This tells me that anything you want to get done in the garden involving dry soil should be finished tomorrow; I don’t see another significant dry period over the next 7-10 days.
We “overachieved” in Portland today, with temperatures ending up warmer than modeling/forecasts had shown. PDX hit 66 degrees, the warmest since that Pineapple Express-induced 67 degree high back in early December.
This is the just the beginning of a well-advertised warm and dry spell. We’ve been talking about this for the last 8-10 days!
HIGHLIGHTS
We are guaranteed warm/dry weather through Monday with sunny skies each day in the inland valleys of Oregon and SW Washington.
High temperatures jump a few degrees tomorrow, then a few more degrees Saturday through Monday.
A gusty east wind near the Gorge tomorrow and early Saturday goes away Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will be calm most areas.
Coastal beaches will be warmest tomorrow and Saturday. A much cooler westerly breeze will drop high temps from around 70 on the beaches Saturday to around 50-55 Sunday! Maybe a few spots of fog/clouds too.
The next chance for showers is Wednesday or Thursday. Yep, you’ve got a solid 6-7 days of dry weather in mid-March.
A strong upper-level ridge has developed just off the West Coast, looking about like this in the upper-atmosphere
By Saturday the ridge is centered over B.C.
On Monday the ridge is centered over the inland Northwest.
Then later next week the ridge has weakened and a cool northwest flow is back…showers and 50s once again in the lowlands
Surface temperature forecasts from the various models have been running colder than one would expect based on the pattern (offshore flow+sun+warm 850mb temps). It was good to see today turn our warmer than models were forecasting. That makes me think the +10 to +12 deg (C) temps WILL produce highs well into the 70s Saturday through Monday. Right now our forecast looks like this…notice only Monday is likely to see a record high for the date
The first three of those records above were set during the warmest March period on record at PDX. In March 1947 we hit 80 degrees.
IF we have 5 days at/above 70, that will one of the very few times we’ve had so many consecutive 70+ days in March.
That’s all I have for this evening. Enjoy and take advantage of a rare March warm/dry spell!
It felt like spring today with temperatures reaching 60 west of the Cascades. If you liked this, then keep in mind it’s just a preview of what’s ahead starting next Thursday. We have increasing confidence that an extended spell of sunshine plus much warmer than normal weather is on tap between 6 and 10 days from now. How warm? Possibly something similar to what happened 19 years ago on this date. It was an early El Niño spring (like this year) and a strong upper-level ridge camped out overhead. The result was some stunningly warm and dry weather. Obviously it wasn’t a real heat-wave, but 15-20 degrees above normal. Five of those daily records still stand today.
First we have to get through 4 days of cool and showery weather. Several upper-level troughs swing through the region starting tomorrow. Expect waves of light rain or showers over the weekend, plus some more organized steady rain Monday PM. Then more cool showers follow behind that front Tuesday. At least the airmass is about 10 degrees warmer this weekend compared to last; no snow/rain mix or heavy snow in the foothills. The ECMWF ensembles show good agreement on a 4 day wet period, then almost as good agreement on a 6 day dry spell (blue box). Other models are similar
What changes later next week? A big ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere builds just offshore and then slides right over the Pacific Northwest starting next Thursday. A.I. is starting to appear everywhere and I suppose this is the first time it’ll appear in my blog. This is the ECMWF AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecast System) 500mb anomaly loop from next Wednesday the 13th through Wednesday the 20th. Warm colors are higher than normal heights (warmer than normal overhead). You can see the ridge amplify, then weaken a bit over those 7 days.
It’s not just the Euro…all global models are showing the same general pattern. The GEFS 6-16 day anomaly is almost identical; a warmer and drier than normal period is ahead
I say confidence is growing because models have been showing this for days; the Canadian model’s 6-hr max temp forecast for next Thursday is between the blue arrows. Top horizontal line is forecast from this past Sunday evening, latest forecast is last horizontal line; that is some consistency!
A tool I’ve used in the warmer seasons for many years (Mark’s charts) is helpful for situations like this. It takes past PDX high temps vs. afternoon 850mb temp (temp in C at 4,500′) on the Salem balloon sounding. It works very well as long as we don’t have inversions or thick cloud cover. It doesn’t work from October through February. This data set spans 1999-2012, but I’ve found adding more data doesn’t move the line much. Models are forecasting +10 to +14 next Friday and possibly into the St. Patrick’s weekend (in yellow area). East wind and offshore flow events under full sunshine are those plot points ABOVE the line. Both ECMWF and GFS ensemble averages are about +12 next Friday afternoon. Sunshine+breezy east wind gives you a high of 71-75 at PDX in those conditions.
Those warmest days during the March 2005 warm spell? 74 and 75 degree highs were under 850mb temps of +12.2 and +11.4. So we’ll go with highs jumping into the 70s next Friday, and possibly staying there for a few days
Last year we had a cold March, a cool April start, and couldn’t find a 70 degree day until the last week of the month!
Wx Blog(kptv)
By the way, the ECMWF A.I. forecast is thinking +15 to +17 next weekend! We will see if it is on to something or way out of whack.
The big message here is that you should get your INDOOR projects done this weekend because there is a very good chance you will want to be OUTDOORS next weekend
Every year, at some point between late February and early March, it becomes obvious to weather forecasters that we’ve crossed the threshold from WINTER to EARLY SPRING in our mild climate west of the Cascades. That has now happened.Looking ahead at our maps/models over the next two weeks it’s clear you can take these actions.
I took my snow tires off three weeks ago when there was no sign of cold arctic air ahead…good move this year. Most late winters/early springs in El Niño years are mild and that’s going to be the case this year. So what are we done with for this year?
PORTLAND HAS NEVER SEEN AN ALL-DAY-LONG SNOW/ICE EVENT AFTER THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. You know, an event that shuts down the city. That’s through 84 years of weather records! So that’s an easy call.
WE’VE NEVER SEEN A DAMAGING ARCTIC BLAST AFTER THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH
WE CAN GET A MORNING LOWLAND SNOWFALL IN MARCH, OR EVEN EARLY APRIL. But life continues as normal with highs in the 40s or even 50. Just like this past weekend.
We all remember April 10/11th 2022 (two years ago) when Portland set its latest snowfall on record with 1.6″ in the city and up to 5-8″ in the hills. Yet it reached 50 degrees that afternoon!
Interesting and remarkable, but it didn’t affect our lives much in the lowlands and roads were fine by midday even in the snowy spots. That was a real freak occurrence. Then early in the morning last April 12th a dusting to several inches fell in central Clark county, although none fell in the rest of the metro. PDX dropped to 37 that morning with rain showers and it hit 53 that afternoon. Which brings up the question…
When it snows in April, is it “winter”? or…
When it’s 95 degrees in mid-May, is it “summer”? or…
When it snows in mid-November, is it “winter”? or…
When it’s 65 and sunny in February, is it “spring”?
The answer is NO to all of these, don’t be silly.
It can snow in spring, it can be hot in spring/fall, it can feel like spring in February, but we still call it spring, fall, and winter.
Hopefully you get my point…we had a great discussion about this on our First Alert Weather Podcast today as well. Make sure you check it out and have it in your podcast feed. Video version is best here: https://www.kptv.com/podcasts/weather/
THE BASICS:
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