Active Weather Returns

A brief break tonight through tomorrow, then it’s back to the wet stuff tomorrow evening through next week.  A large and cold upper-level trough will gradually approach the West Coast Monday and Tuesday and then move overhead Wednesday.  Looks like lowest snow levels on Wednesday will be below 2,000′, possibly as low as 1,000′ at some point between Wednesday AM and Thursday AM.   Then more westerly flow and troughs follow after that.  February is going to end colder and wetter than it began.  Of course we CAN still see snow in the last 10 days of February (remember last March?), but you have to get 850mb. temps down to -6 or preferably below.  500-1000mb thicknesses must get down to 522dm or less as well.  I DON’T see any cold arctic air or a windstorm setup in the next 7 days.  So I plan to pull the mulch off of my plants tomorrow during the very brief dry spell…Mark

This entry was posted on Friday, February 16th, 2007 at 10:52 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

105 Responses to Active Weather Returns

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  1. Derek-West Gresham says:
    February 19, 2007 at 11:06 pm

    Just thought I would also say Steves analysis looks good and I am surprised at what the GFS is showing. I expect snow showers on Wednesday, Thursday Night to Friday, and then perhaps something more substantial starting sunday. I will return tomorrow night for an update. Later guys.

  2. Steve Pierce - Vancouver says:
    February 19, 2007 at 11:00 pm

    Hummmmmmmmm, this makes me think about getting the sled back out. Look at all that precip from Sunday the 25th to the following Friday on the 0Z GFS,,, with 850mb temps right at the critical value as well as heights at or below 524dm for quite a while. If this run were to verify, someone around PDX will be getting a lot of the white stuff. The question is, how low will it go? This run would put snow just about on the valley floor. “IF” this verifies. “IF” being the key word. Never in my 33 yrs (soon to be 34 yrs on Feb 26th) of life have I seen sticking valley snow on or after my birthday here in the PDX metro area, below the west hills. Could this be the year???
    GFS Y Files FORECAST FOR: PDX LAT = 45.60 LON = -122.60
    00Z FEB20 * – APPROXIMATED
    SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 3/6 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU HR HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    TUE 00Z 20-FEB 4.1 0.5 1011 97 91 553 544
    TUE 06Z 20-FEB 4.4 -1.0 1010 98 83 0.17 550 542
    TUE 12Z 20-FEB 3.4 -0.3 1006 99 98 0.48 543 538
    TUE 18Z 20-FEB 1.4 -4.5 1010 100 54 0.49 536 528
    WED 00Z 21-FEB 1.8 -5.0 1012 100 89 0.09 535 525
    WED 06Z 21-FEB -0.4 -5.3 1014 99 89 0.06 535 523
    WED 12Z 21-FEB -0.8 -5.2 1013 98 86 0.07 534 524
    WED 18Z 21-FEB 0.7 -4.6 1013 99 93 0.05 535 525
    THU 00Z 22-FEB 3.0 -3.3 1009 98 78 0.04 535 528
    THU 06Z 22-FEB 0.4 -2.4 1006 97 89 0.02 535 530
    THU 12Z 22-FEB -0.1 -2.5 1004 99 97 0.10 534 531
    THU 18Z 22-FEB 1.9 -4.2 1006 99 89 0.12 532 528
    FRI 00Z 23-FEB 2.5 -4.6 1007 99 80 0.05 531 525
    FRI 06Z 23-FEB -2.9 -5.0 1012 99 35 0.01 533 524
    FRI 12Z 23-FEB -5.5 -5.2 1014 98 34 0.00 534 523
    FRI 18Z 23-FEB 1.1 -5.4 1018 96 63 0.00 539 524
    SAT 00Z 24-FEB 2.9 -4.9 1019 93 81 0.02 546 531
    SAT 06Z 24-FEB -0.4 -4.3 1020 96 91 0.02 551 535
    SAT 12Z 24-FEB 0.6 -2.9 1018 96 99 0.09 552 537
    SAT 18Z 24-FEB 2.6 -0.5 1016 99 98 0.25 549 536
    SUN 00Z 25-FEB 2.3 -3.7 1016 100 69 0.27 543 530
    SUN 06Z 25-FEB 0.4 -5.5 1020 100 93 0.23 541 525
    SUN 12Z 25-FEB -0.3 -6.2 1021 100 96 0.19 539 522
    SUN 18Z 25-FEB 0.3 -6.7 1021 100 94 0.19 537 520
    MON 00Z 26-FEB -0.1 -5.2 1017 100 94 0.31 537 524
    MON 06Z 26-FEB -0.7 -6.1 1015 100 64 0.10 537 524
    MON 12Z 26-FEB -1.8 -5.1 1007 99 97 0.12 534 528
    MON 18Z 26-FEB -0.6 -4.1 1001 100 98 0.24 528 527
    TUE 00Z 27-FEB -0.4 -5.6 1001 99 94 0.24 524 523
    TUE 06Z 27-FEB -2.6 -7.2 1005 99 89 0.11 521 517
    TUE 12Z 27-FEB -2.4 -7.7 1008 99 97 0.17 522 516
    WED 00Z 28-FEB -0.4 -7.6 1014 98 86 0.18 528 517
    WED 12Z 28-FEB -0.8 -6.6 1013 98 93 0.35 531 521
    THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.0 -6.6 1014 98 90 0.42 533 521
    THU 12Z 01-MAR -1.0 -7.4 1016 98 90 0.31 532 519
    FRI 00Z 02-MAR 0.0 -7.4 1016 98 90 0.20 534 521
    FRI 12Z 02-MAR -2.0 -8.3 1018 98 64 0.20 537 522
    SAT 00Z 03-MAR 0.0 -8.2 1020 97 71 0.02 543 527
    SAT 12Z 03-MAR -6.0 -6.2 1020 98 58 0.01 547 531
    SUN 00Z 04-MAR 0.5 -3.7 1017 99 98 0.06 552 538
    SUN 12Z 04-MAR 1.3 1.3 1014 99 98 0.52 556 545
    MON 00Z 05-MAR 3.1 3.7 1012 100 98 0.45 556 546
    MON 12Z 05-MAR 2.7 2.6 1007 98 73 0.25 549 543
    TUE 00Z 06-MAR 2.3 -1.5 1008 99 98 0.26 541 534
    TUE 12Z 06-MAR -0.9 -7.6 1019 97 53 0.22 544 528
    WED 00Z 07-MAR 2.3 -6.5 1024 97 20 0.03 555 535
    WED 12Z 07-MAR -4.8 -5.3 1026 97 65 0.00 559 538
    THU 00Z 08-MAR 4.0 -2.0 1022 90 59 0.00 561 543

  3. Derek-West Gresham says:
    February 19, 2007 at 10:53 pm

    🙂
    I guess I make Timmys day even when I am gone. Just checking in to say I am taking a break and am NOT banned. I dont like the way that people get bashed for thinking differently, and that comment is not just to the ones who upset me before. Oh well, back to lurker mode.

  4. Mark says:
    February 19, 2007 at 10:41 pm

    Hey timmy, what the heck is your problem? Its pretty obvious that your not liked that many and yet you continue to bash others and display your one sided mind. Quite frankly, all the actice participants in the blog have left because of you and some others. If you wanna come here to discuss weather, fine, but thats ALL that should be discussed here. Thanks for ruining the blog Timmy, we really appreciate it.

  5. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:
    February 19, 2007 at 10:16 pm

    *Sighs*
    This is exactly why I have not been around and have been refraining to post.
    I have hardly even read the Blog.
    I will say that Winterhawk, really nice posts lately very informative.
    I will not comment on the negative side of things as ummm remember 6 months ago or so and even further back when this Blog started?
    Yeah I do, and we discussed WEATHER.
    As far as that goes……
    Decent S winds in my area.
    Gusts 30-40mph
    –
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KOLM+KEUG
    KOLM-KEUG (I like to call the ‘South wind storm’) gradient is hovering around -9.3MB.
    –
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KPDX+KEUG
    KPDX-KEUG (Valley gradient) is hovering around -4.1MB.
    Some moderate S gradients developing.
    I will especially be monitoring the KOLM-KEUG gradient to see if it gets beyond -10MB later for gusts 40mph+ overnight.
    Rob

  6. timmy - scappoose says:
    February 19, 2007 at 10:12 pm

    this pattern will give us a nice boost snowpack and reservoirs even if we dont see snow down here. 00z is looking nice.

  7. Weatherer says:
    February 19, 2007 at 10:01 pm

    Please leave the drama off the blog guys. Thanks.
    How bout that 00z run? Looks pretty decent for snow chances next week 😉

  8. timmy - scappoose says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:57 pm

    neither of us are bashing anyone. from the sounds of it, you are on your chat though. you may control the chat, but not this blog. thank you.

  9. Antipex (SE Gresham) says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:53 pm

    Please refrain from bashing others. I don’t know how many times we have to go through this on here, and Mark gets upset and deletes things and bars comments from being made. Timmy and Ben – if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. Thank you.

  10. timmy - scappoose says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:36 pm

    id be interested to know what it says. id also like to note that when personal issues get in the way of good weather, its a pain. that was never my intention.

  11. Ben says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:27 pm

    Type in Timmy on that “Weatherchat” forum and see what happens…real mature.

  12. timmy - scappoose says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:22 pm

    the extended does look like we could see flakes, but even with 850mb temps at -9c we could still be above freezing at the floor between showers at least. but snow is still fun to see. has Clinton been around lately?

  13. salemphil says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:11 pm

    OMG!!! LOL, Nuff Said!! LOL

  14. timmy - scappoose says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:10 pm

    http://www.northwestwx.com/chat go here if you like a communist one sided environment.

  15. Mark says:
    February 19, 2007 at 9:09 pm

    Hey, Tiros and other’s that are nice, you can come to this site for some weather chat.
    http://www.northwestwx.com/chat

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