A Nice Storm

February 12, 2007

Snapshot_22A change has been well-forecast by models the last few days.  The persistent split flow of the past few weeks is going away, at least for awhile.  As you can see to the left, within the next 48 hours we transition to a strong westerly jet.  Of course  you may also notice to the left that we are on the warm side of the jet at that time too.  What’s really happening is that the split is consolidating as a ridge builds along the West Coast.  Once the one storm makes it inland Thursday, the ridging takes over and pushes the rain farther north on Friday.  00z GFS keeps us dry from Friday PM until Sunday PM.  The brand new 00z ECMWF has troughing moving through by Saturday night.  So going for a partly cloudy and warm weekend is a dangerous gamble.  It would be a capital offense to make a sunny/warm weekend forecast and then revoke it in April or May.  Luckily in February I think we are afforded a bit more latitude.  There are hints on different models of a cold trough of some sort next week.  I’ll keep an eye on that to see if we’ll get a good dumping of snow (finally) in the Cascades.  I’m making plans for that Temperature Trek this Saturday Morning, we may have good clearing conditions for it.  See previous post and email me within 24 hours if you want to participate…Mark