Cold & Snowy

February 19, 2007

Snapshot_25Sorry about the delay in posting this evening.  I had a crisis when I realized Battlestar Galactica didn’t come on at it’s normal time for recording tonight.  But, it’s on tomorrow night…whew!  I’m too cheap to pay for the channel at home so I record it here.  But that’s WAY too much information about my personal viewing habits. 
Long range models last week showed a substantial change to our dry winter weather pattern and apparently they were correct in showing this change.  A cold flow from the west and northwest will dominate our weather through the end of the month (next Wednesday) at least.  Twice between now and early next week we get a very strong westerly jet punching right into the Northwest.  This is a perfect setup for 2 feet of snow in the Cascades each time.  Add in the lighter snowfall inbetween and the middle of next week?  You get 5-7′ of snow by the end of the month.  This could make up all the snowpack we’ve been missing since mid-January.
So the big question…how low will it snow in the next 10 days?  The lowest 850mb temps on BOTH the GFS and ECMWF is -7 deg.C.  That can bring snow to 1000′ this time of year, possibly lower IF everything works out just right.  New 00z GFS has a -8 deg. the early part of next week.  Assuming that’s a bit cold, as the GFS usually is that far out, I’m guessing no snow in Portland.  Something to watch daily though.  Those of you at or above 1000′ have a very good chance of flirting with snow at times over the next 10 days…Mark