Cold and Colder

February 21, 2007

Snapshot_23A slightly earlier post tonight since I got my graphics all finished.  Lots of weather to talk about eh?  In the short term…nice plume of moisture moving north out of California bringing rain and snow north all over Oregon.  A good snowstorm in progress across the southern 1/2 of the state.  6" reported from Ray Nelson in Christmas Valley (rare for that dry desert location, no relation either).  This is a wave on the back of yesterday’s front.  It moves off to the northeast after daybreak.  Then we wait for a very visible trough out around 130 West to move inland tomorrow night.  Our RPM model here pushes the snow level below 1000′ tomorrow night.  Looks like a guaranteed dusting to 1000′ and possibly a bit lower too.  As we know, precipitation intensity is most important, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dusting by Friday morning everywhere above 500′.  Then a quiet Friday.
A strong westerly jet punches into the Northwest Saturday and Sunday, slamming the mountains with heavy snow…probably 2 or 3 feet again.  Snow levels both days stay above 2,000′.
Then the coldest airmass yet moves inland Monday with cold showers.  Depending on the setup, this could produce sticking snow below 1000′.  Each model run from every model has been a bit different.   Seems to me that the GFS is heading more towards the ECMWF the last few runs.  By that I mean much more digging of an offshore trough into California Monday-Wednesday next week.  So my 7 Day forecast is based on that…drying us out after Monday.  That could easily be wrong of course…but I can always change later…Mark