Pitiful Attempts At Rainfall

February 8, 2007

Snapshot_21Another system that we thought would give us decent rainfall is practically falling apart over the Northwest this evening.  Sure we’ll see some rain, but this seems to be the story this week.  I’m not too surprised since this sort of setup (weak waves moving inland to our south and then swinging north) never seems to give us much rainfall anyway.
I see two big trends in the models over the next week.  In the short term the wet weekend with a possible windy day Sunday has completely fallen apart with Saturday being a mainly partly cloudy day and Sunday just a showery day at best.  This is a first this winter, but the NAM is doing better with these weak systems, showing drier weather than the GFS the last few days.  It shows only .03" rain over Portland from 4pm Friday to 4am Monday!  Hmm…then the long range.  The 00z GFS has gone much drier with big signs of a splitty flow after Monday.   I don’t usually jump on one model run, but considering our recent past and the weaker than expected weekend system, I see no reason to doubt that the trend may continue next week. 
If so, I think we can safely say now that we have slipped into an "El Nino" wet season (the 2nd half of this wet season at least).  Do you realize the weather has been mainly dry "dead" for over a month now?  Sure, that one system slipped through and gave us the 3-5" of snow in mid-January, but that was less than .50" of precip…the temperature just happened to be cold enough to give us snow…Mark