Interesting to note the GFS operational is colder than any of its ensemble runs later next week, but the warmest beyond 11-12 days. Many ensemble members are hinting at ridging farther offshore for colder weather by Valentine’s Day.
Interesting to note the GFS operational is colder than any of its ensemble runs later next week, but the warmest beyond 11-12 days. Many ensemble members are hinting at ridging farther offshore for colder weather by Valentine’s Day.
This entry was posted on Thursday, January 31st, 2013 at 10:33 am and is filed under & Graphs. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
THE BASICS:
Commenting on this blog is open to anyone with an interest in or fascination with weather. Here at FOX-12 we're happy to provide you a space to "geek out" with fellow Pacific Northwesterners. But please don't abuse the privilege.
1. POSTING LINKS/VIDEO:
It's okay to insert video or pictures, as long as the link points to something appropriate for the general public. No politics, obscenity, etc...
2. CHOOSE A NAME ONCE:
Choose a name or identification once and stick with it. The very first time you comment it is held for moderation. After it's approved, that EXACT name will be allowed to comment at any time. Note that this applies to your IP address too. So using the same name but on Grandma's computer will require a one-time hold as well. This keeps the spam out.
3. NO PROFANITY:
This is pretty obvious, but avoid being rude or taunting others too.
4. NO RACISM, OR VIOLENT THREATS:
This will get you kicked off quickly. Please report this to me at mark.nelsen@kptv.com if it happens here.
OC550 on Unusually dry April; much diff… | |
Roland Derksen on Unusually dry April; much diff… | |
WEATHERDAN on Unusually dry April; much diff… | |
X from Aumsville on Unusually dry April; much diff… | |
Roland Derksen on Unusually dry April; much diff… |
00z GFS looks good to me ridging seems to start off close to us then heads north west somewhere between 160and 150w allowing some cold air to spill down to the PNW not sure if there will be moisture but I like this trend we have seen it on three straight GFS runs:) but it is the the GFS???? Almost to the point when we will start seeing if the euro follows this trend:)
I’m getting some sort of hope again, but Euro models need to show something before we get serious.
I agree Ben:)
GFS just doesn’t cut it alone anymore. She’s a tease. She never keeps her promises.
Lol that’s definitely one thing I’ve learned but as winter is getting closer to an end ill reach for any hope especially when models haven’t really shown any kind of real cold this year!:)
Haha same here. Watch, we’ve been saying no snow and now we’ll get dumped with 2 feet haha 🙂
CPC has the right idea for February-march-April. I’d suggest leaving the barbecue in it’s snug cover in the garage until after fourth of July. Repeat after me: PEE DEE OHH
Maybe by 2021 or 2022 we’ll actually have a slightly-above-climo Mar-June period. Which by then should be easy to pull off, after the 30-year climo is revised slightly downward due to all these cold springs!
Didn’t we have the same weather when it was OHH DEE PEE mode? Trend has been cold late winter/spring no mater the nina’s. Summers have been later arriving and lasting longer and traditional winters the same for a while now. I’m sure they have science to back up their prediction but there has to be a human element in there (and possibly a large one) where they are considering recent history.
Looking forward to winter 2013-2014….(the modern
1949-1950). Better luck then. Before that, let’s bring on SUMMER!!!!
Oh, yeah…
NOW he’s back to the “cold side”.
It seems like only yesterday — wait, it was TODAY — that Winter was over for W7EEYORE.
Fickle, I say; not unlike the weather.
To paraphrase (I mean quote) him: “Don’t be so quick to jump.”
Conflicted, methinks.
18z ensemble!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png
Lots of cold members on here:) operational not as cold tho!
Come on end of the month snow storm !!
Figures..i just had my snow tires taken off..
If I take my faucet covers off, does it mean cold and snow???!!
Can some one tell me how to read these maps and what they mean?
The left side numbers are degrees in celcius we want at least -6 or -7 degrees celcius for low land snow. As far as all the squiggly lines those are called members I believe and the blue solid line is the operational run. Mark would be able to give you more info than I would, but this should help:)
Thanks your not the only who has been asking that lol. But I have been looking online for weather blogs and I found this site witch, she is a storm chaser and rights blogs about weather maps ect, http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2011/11/weather-forecasting-part-2a-weather.html.
Writes
Thanks Marcus!
18z ensembles are still cold:). Winter is not over yet!!!:)
18zgfs looking nice lets hope this continues:)
wont happen.. ridge access will end up way to close to us and we will get squat..
At least I got a small taste of real winter here in Minneapolis this week.. sitting at 1deg with wind chills -20 to -35 .. heading home tonight though.. so much for winter
weather satan is waiting to pick me up at pdx
You have to pay to get the high res Euro stuff. PaulB was paying for a while. You can see out to 6 days at http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 and pick ECMWF under Model Data in the sidebar.
I meant to post that under the first quote.
yeah, and you can get low res to 10 days too.
http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ecmwf&map=na&run=00&lang=en
And really pretty pictures out to 7 days at Nexlab.
Actually pretty pics on several models.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Come snow come!
I like the trend!!!
Precipitation and cold and precipitation and cold is what we need, so we can see yellow icicles when my dog has peed!
I like that one –15C member on VD! Now, if we could just get the rest of the ensemble to follow suit… and bring in some moisture, too? 🙂
Actually, it’s 10 days early. The last two winters have featured a transitory cold snap on 2/24. I fully expect February 2013 to continue this trend. 😆
You mean it’s 10 days better. If we end up repeating last late-Winter/early-Spring but 10 days sooner? I could live with that. Spring and Summer showing up 10 days earlier than last year would make me a happy camper.
From what I’ve seen, the Euro performed a lot better this winter than the GFS. Its almost to the point where I quit looking at the GFS past 5 days.
You in!
Seems like the euro does do better than the gfs. But I sure like getting the better res from the nam and gfs. Don’t have access to the “forbidden” ecmwf stuff that Mark has. I think you have to be fluent in French or German or something to get all the goodies 😉