00z GFS Ensemble Chart

January 31, 2013

Looks like models are all keyed in on the cool trough the 2nd half of next week; snow levels probably down in the 1,500-2,000′ range.  Then some disagreement whether we enter a cooler and wetter period or upper level ridging takes over after that time.  This chart shows the 00z cold GFS might be an outlier. 


The actual operational run is the blue line; very cold with several bouts of snow in the hills (or lower) between the 12th and 16th.

By the way, I have no idea why sometimes the images post all gray like that…I know it’s annoying.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

00z ECMWF Monthly Maps

January 31, 2013

A little late, again, but here are the 4 weekly maps from LAST NIGHT’S ECMWF run:





12z GFS Ensemble Chart

January 31, 2013


Interesting to note the GFS operational is colder than any of its ensemble runs later next week, but the warmest beyond 11-12 days.  Many ensemble members are hinting at ridging farther offshore for colder weather by Valentine’s Day.