00z GFS Ensemble Chart

January 31, 2013

Looks like models are all keyed in on the cool trough the 2nd half of next week; snow levels probably down in the 1,500-2,000′ range.  Then some disagreement whether we enter a cooler and wetter period or upper level ridging takes over after that time.  This chart shows the 00z cold GFS might be an outlier. 

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

The actual operational run is the blue line; very cold with several bouts of snow in the hills (or lower) between the 12th and 16th.

By the way, I have no idea why sometimes the images post all gray like that…I know it’s annoying.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


00z ECMWF Monthly Maps

January 31, 2013

A little late, again, but here are the 4 weekly maps from LAST NIGHT’S ECMWF run:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA


12z GFS Ensemble Chart

January 31, 2013

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Interesting to note the GFS operational is colder than any of its ensemble runs later next week, but the warmest beyond 11-12 days.  Many ensemble members are hinting at ridging farther offshore for colder weather by Valentine’s Day.