An extremely busy evening both on TV and off means my email Inbox is jammed…I’ll get to those later this week.
As mentioned this morning, models have come into good agreement and it’s even better on the new 00z runs. More on tomorrow night’s big system in a minute.
This evening everything is going according to plan, a deepening surface low to the north is giving us a gusty southerly wind. Temps are near their daytime highs as a result. We just hit 36 at the station in northern Beaverton, the high for the day. Our KPTV Tower temps have been rising since early afternoon and mesoscale models show the low level atmosphere maybe warming another 2 degrees by daybreak. That mostly eliminates the chance for sticking snow at the lowest elevations. One hitch is much heavier precipitation forecast to arrive between 7am and 10am. This will be similar to this afternoon; heavy wet flakes will stick lower than they will tonight. That’s why I said Trace-1″ at the lowest elevations by morning and 1-3″ up around 1,000′ and above. The southerly wind may die down right around that time as well.
The rest of tomorrow looks similar to today temp & precip-wise. With a light south wind we rise up to around 40 degrees, or at least the upper 30s.
Good news for tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning. All models now move the surface low up to somewhere near Astoria or a little farther north. As the steady precipitation settles in after sunset tomorrow, the sticking snow level will probably be up around 1,000′. Then a switch to light easterly flow between 10pm and 4am could allow the column of air overhead to drop to 32 degrees all the way down. Model soundings are still showing this, just like I showed on the previous post. It’s a very close call, but considering there will be no influx of cold/dry air from the Gorge, I’m not excited about a big metro-wide snowstorm. I won’t be surprised if there is only a trace or less once again across the bulk of the lowest elevations from the Columbia River south. I feel the best place to hold onto the cold air will be up against the Coast Range and then north of the Columbia River, up into Clark County. Forget about it Salem…too mild down there (just barely). The WRF-GFS and our RPM do not show accumulating snow in Portland, but it’s quite close! Check out the WRF-GFS snowfall accumulation graphic valid from tomorrow at 4am to Wednesday 4am:
Once again, best chance north and west of Portland.
Here’s the forecast graphic I used at 10pm for that period:
A southerly wind should move into here Wednesday midday at the latest. Depending on the depth of the surface low, we could either have just southerly breezes or a significant wind event. We can worry about that tomorrow.