I just found this little chart (I really like charts and graphs) on the NCDC site. It shows global land/ocean temps since 1950, so obviously a relatively short record. BUT, what’s most interesting is how this past year’s La Nina had little effect on global temps, or at least less effect than in the past. In fact, 2011 was the warmest La Nina year during that period of time. Interesting eh? Of course we’re talking about all of 1/2 degree difference, but interesting nonetheless.
This one comes in late tonight and tomorrow morning…but it won’t be nearly as wet as last week’s deluge. Check out our RPM rain forecast. Luckily just an inch or so here in the Valleys tomorrow and Wednesday. Heavier amounts in the Coast and Cascade Ranges could set off minor river flooding on either of the usual North Coast Range rivers (Wilson & Nehalem).
No signficiant wind coming up with this system other than the usual gusts 50-65 mph on the coastline, much lighter here in the Valleys.
There WILL be another shot of snow in the central/eastern Columbia River Gorge. Plenty of snow cover to the east, a cold night, then precipitation moves in over the cool air around 8am. Model soundings say snow is possibly from start to early afternoon. POSSIBLY a period of freezing rain in the late afternoon; no dramatic warming until late tomorrow night with a return of the west wind. So I see 3-5″ possible for Cascade Locks to The Dalles from 8am-3pm.
Starting Thursday, it appears we are headed for a big slowdown in the weather again, similar to what we saw for the 7 weeks before mid January. A few weak systems for very light rain here or there, but that’s it.
The GFS (a bit unreliable this winter in my view) shows strong ridging off and on over the next 2 weeks. The ECMWF isn’t quite as much a “blowtorch”, showing occasional systems moving inland and no real strong ridging. Both say little or no chance for lower elevation snow, no arctic blasts, and no windstorm/flooding events.
Here are the two 850mb ensemble temp charts for the next two weeks from both the GFS:
and the ECMWF, note they both have some sort of chilly troughing (briefly) about 8 days from now, around the 31st.:
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
In case you were wondering, our local chapter of the AMS (American Meteorological Society) rescheduled the OMSI Global Warming Meeting for this week. It’ll be coming up this Wednesday at the Airport Shilo Inn.
The point of this meeting was to offer the other side (those that are unconvinced humans are the cause of global warming) a chance to be heard. I am on the executive board of our local chapter and while I don’t necessarily agree with their views, I did want to hear what they have to say and thought they should be heard. As with any other topic we cover at AMS meetings, we are expecting the speakers to stick to science; this isn’t a political meeting.
Here are the details:
WHAT: Come take a look at the science, both the logic and the evidence. Is human caused global warming the greatest scientific myth of our generation?
WHEN: Wednesday, January 25th 2012 from 7-9 PM. Please plan to arrive early. A large turnout is expected. There will be a no-host social hour in the Shilo restaurant from 5-7pm. Come eat dinner and/or have a beverage. Catch up with friends and colleagues!
WHERE: Portland Airport Shilo Inn Convention Center Ballroom 11707 NE Airport Way, Portland, OR 97220. Hotel directions: http://www.shiloinns.com/hotel_details.asp?PI=PASOR
COST: Free and open to the general public.
GUEST SPEAKERS: Former Oregon State Climatologist George Taylor, Meteorologist Chuck Wiese and Physicist Gordon Fulks, PhD.
AGENDA: Come hear Mr. Taylor, Mr. Wiese and Dr. Fulks explore what they consider to be the many problems with the theory of catastrophic human-caused climate change. They will also present their own forecasts for the next decade, century, millennium and beyond. There will also be a public Q & A session at the conclusion of the meeting.
The Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society has no formal position on the subject matter of climate change. Our society is committed to our mission statement which reads: The purpose of this society shall be to advance professional ideals in the science of meteorology and to promote the development, exchange, and application of meteorological knowledge. To that end, we are planning to host a future meeting with the opposing side of this subject matter. Please stay tuned for additional details.
I will not be able to attend this meeting because of my schedule, I’ll be on the 6, 8, 10, & 11pm newscasts that night.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen