Active Weather Ahead

SnapshotFinally, the slow weather is going to come to an end over the next few days.  A mix of low level fog along with higher clouds again tonight.  I’m thinking that increasing cloud cover overnight actually should lift the fog a bit by morning.
Tomorrow should be another gray day with a mix of fog and clouds.  00z models are more insistent on holding off cold-front related rain until well after sunset Friday, even at the Coast.  This system races inland with maybe .20-.40" in the Valleys and double that in the mountains by Saturday morning.  The strong westerly flow opening up behind the front should squeeze all available moisture out of the airmass Saturday in the mountains.  When the flow runs perpendicular into the mountains, we get good snow totals.  Maybe a foot total from tomorrow evening into Sunday A.M.
The next system is looking quite a bit stronger for Sunday.  In fact I had already imported this coast graphic before I saw the 00z MM5-NAM & GFS versions both have 45 knot surface wind moving onto the Coastline during the day on Sunday (I’m watching these things closely for some reason).  So we may end up with 60 mph gusts easily if trends continue out there.
This illustrates a good point for next week;  with a fast westerly flow and numerous shortwaves moving through, expect frequent model changes with respect to low pressure centers and "wind zones".  For that matter, the snow level is relatively low (2,000′?) several times during the upcoming week, so we need to keep an eye out for any "offshore" flow events that could lower the snow level farther.  That said…nothing really sticks out at me on the maps as a big wind storm or snow event through the middle of next week.  But keep tuned!  Mark Nelsen   

175 Responses to Active Weather Ahead

  1. John - Aloha says:

    It looks like the coast has some wind with the frontal passage 62mph at Cape Meares
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/graphob.php?sid=AS612&num=48&tstr=11&graphtype=1

  2. Lonewolf >Vancouver, WA says:

    Coldwater Ridge at 3260′ elev on Mt. St. Helens reporting 38 deg. http://www.nwac.us/~nwac/products/OSOMSH
    Frz level seems quite a bit higher there than it does around Mt. Hood.

  3. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    John,
    Yep I also see that near 48N, 128W
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12

  4. John - Aloha says:

    Dr. Rob, it looks like there is a second low forming on the current system. Do you see that?

  5. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    Mark said tonight watching closely for any wind event/storms or low land snows and I believe that has to be due to the jet being as far south as it is.
    I’m already watching the system for Sunday.
    [IR Loop]
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common_full+12
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12
    48.7N, 159.2W
    It’s moving ESE-SE. This may drop a bit more SE than models are now showing. We could see a S wind event 35-45+mph from this. Well these are my initial thoughts anyhow.

  6. Mat - ne portland says:

    No, its the whole paragraph before that. lol
    Thanks for the tips onthe names 🙂

  7. Lonewolf >Vancouver, WA says:

    Mat, is it the part where he says “nothing really sticks out at me on the maps as a big wind storm or snow event through the middle of next week” that makes you think there might be a surprise in the future…?
    JK 🙂
    BTW, I like slayer instead of killer: i.e. fishSlayer or salmonSlayer or troutSlayer.

  8. Heatblizzard silverton Or near the gardens says:

    You’ve said it Mat. What’s funny is we never had any source of cold air it was fake cold from inversion or just a bit of east winds which have also been unusally aggressaive? Anyone Want to know what happened at Port Townsend on our trip if so Do you want me to post it here or PM one of you? I will tell you a brief version now and more tomorrow because if I get tired soon I will type bad like a drunk.

  9. Mat - ne portland says:

    One run guys. It may come back. Strong jet, may push it south.
    By the way, model-riding sucks.

  10. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    VERY impressive. When we were down 70-59 in the 3rd quarter I was getting a little concerned. Then Nate called a 20sec time-out and we got our shizzle together again. Travis Outlaw the man!
    Back to weather.
    As of 10:00 PM
    PDX-EUG -1.8
    TTD-DLS -5.2
    Look for S-SW winds showing up in the valley soon.
    As far as the snow/wind situation…..
    I am already banking on better odds of a S wind event/storm happening rather than snow if you are south of Kelso.

  11. Tornado Aly (Vancouver) says:

    Sometimes Mark will update between his 10:30ish segment and the 11:00 show.

  12. Mat - ne portland says:

    I did get a little slushy drops on the way home. It was clear as day on the windshield. Just weird how many times we’ve flirted snow with this year

  13. Ryan (Walnut Grove/Van Mall) says:

    Me Thinks we won’t hear from Mark until after he reviews the 00z.
    🙂

  14. Ryan (Walnut Grove/Van Mall) says:

    Looks like we are about to get nailed by a nice deluge.

  15. Mat - ne portland says:

    Come on Mark, how about a shoutout, I saw it graupeling in ne Portland tonight.

  16. Mat - ne portland says:

    I love me some halibut.

  17. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    how ’bout…Mat Fishkiller !!

  18. Mat - ne portland says:

    Okay so I’m dropping the salmon killer. Cause I really catch lots of variety.
    Maybe it could be Mat Fishing the West already. No, thats dumb, maybe beerMat.

  19. Mat, The Salmon Killer says:

    Read the headline of todays blog(from last night) and I think Mark is trying to subliminally tell us something. Especially the second half. Sounds like maybe there could be a surprise out there in the near future. I like veddy much.

  20. Camas Mom says:

    Jerry – and you got out of Logan with snow on the ground? Are you kidding me? They close Logan for a drizzle it seems like!

  21. Camas Mom says:

    One must have excellent hearing….

  22. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    As of 9:00 PM
    PDX-EUG -0.7
    TTD-DLS -4.9

  23. K(p)=k(c)(RT)^n says:

    There are flurries falling from a 90% clear sky here. I don’t even get it but since they don’t stick at 20F what good are they? I seriously think they have heated sidewalks around here.

  24. gratefulduck (weather blog lurker) says:

    I dont know Cherie.. on our way home this afternoon from out there I swear I saw some mixing in the couple of heavier showers that we drove through that came through earlier this evening… I was actually just gonna ask if you were seeing anything based on the radar I was looking at..
    Again.. it was great to meet you today and put a face to the name. We are going to try to make it out again but have a few things we need to take care of with our situation still.

  25. Dr. Rob -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    As of 8:00 PM
    PDX-EUG -0.9
    TTD-DLS -6.1
    E wind has definitely increased here.
    [00z GFS]
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml
    Well unfortunately it has now taken the low now north of PDX. It has now introduced the idea of perhaps a south wind event/storm by placing a 989-992mb low off the southern Oregon Coast moving NE moving onshore near Long Beach/Ocean Shores. The low isn’t very strong, but we need to watch this. I really hope this is just an outlier, but I am fearing my previous thoughts of a northerly trend with the low may be coming to fruition. Another low follows a similar track for Thursday.

  26. stevied (North Portland.... formerly Steve D) says:

    PDX-DLS gradient at -5.9 at 8pm. Highest of the day I think.

  27. stevied (North Portland.... formerly Steve D) says:

    Hour 90 on the 00z GFS run… significant change/flip back to what the GFS showed a couple days ago… the low due west of Astoria and then making landfall in Western Washington. 992mb low. Gusty wind event, but the low is not that deep. Over the last several runs that low went from the Bay Area in California back up to the NW Coast of Washington. With 3.5 days out, that thing could end up in Alaska.

  28. Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

    I’m just about due west from Muncie.. I’m 25 miles NW of downtown Indy on I-65..
    This could be the second big winter storm this year, had 17″ back in February of this year (Valentine Blizzard).

  29. stevied (North Portland.... formerly Steve D) says:

    Well, the 00z is running. I’ll miss the 18z run… it showed 522 thickness, -7c 850mb temps, and plenty of moisture… on December 25th…a white Christmas. C’mon 00z… keep it coming!

  30. jerry says:

    it was truly something amazing. Sean i hope you get dumped on!

  31. Tyler in NW Vancouver (Hazel Dell) says:

    Sean…where is Lebanon compared to Muncie? Do you know? I have a friend that lives there. Says they may issue blizzard warnings etc…
    A balmy 41.5 here!

  32. jerry says:

    When I get home tonight I’ll post some pictures of the snow storm I winessed in Boston last night. In 7-8 hours we got 10-12 inches! At times it was snowing 2 inches per hour!

  33. just curious C’Mom…how does one hear a picture?

  34. Runrain says:

    I just hope I don’t miss too much weather action the next couple of weeks. Heading down to AZ next week and, while the weather affords a nice break, I’ll be jealous if I see I’m missing some good stuff back here!

  35. Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

    I have both sets of batteries for my camera charged and ready to go.

  36. Camas Mom says:

    And Sean, we want to hear and see pictures!

  37. Camas Mom says:

    You know we’re kidding you! So we’re a little jealous. But we’ll get snow soon. 🙂

  38. Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

    Not here to rub it in, wanting to share.. 🙂

  39. Sean (Lebanon, IN) says:

    I wish you guys could get in on the action.. But your turn with the snow is coming!

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