This July Is Sure Different!

9pm Tuesday…

It finally happened!  Tuesday I received my first two “I HATE THIS SUMMER” emails.  Actually they were more like “WHAT’S GOING ON?” emails lamenting the lack of warm weather this summer so far…  Here’s one, click for a better view:

Capture

Let’s look at the facts first.  Temperature anomaly (departure from the average) for the past 10 days:

anomaly_10days

Coolest part of the USA compared to average is right over in the NE part of Oregon and northern Rockies.  July so far…

anomaly_july

Same general idea with a good chunk of the USA cooler than normal.  Now back 30 days; that started just a few days after our 100 degree Sunday!

anomaly_30days

This coolish pattern has been going on awhile…as mentioned in previous posts, it appears some sort of climate “switch” was switched on/off after the first week of June.

But we haven’t been all that cool; in fact Salem and Eugene have seen perfectly normal temps for July!  The coast has actually been warmer than normal.  So it’s not like we’ve seen a “chilly” July.   I think we have just become comfortable with warmer than normal temps of the past few summers, or at least we get used to it.  Specifically many of us have expected we can go out and enjoy those water sports just about any day in July and not be chilled.

This one graphic  tells the story:

Mark_80DegreeJulyDays

Last year 25 days at/above 80 degrees, this year it appears we’ll see 5-6 at most in the first 20 days of the month.  That’s MUCH different than the past 3-4 years!

The reason we are seeing the much cooler temps?  A flattened western USA upper-level ridge along with cool upper-level troughs wanting to hang out near the West Coast.

WHAT’S AHEAD?

Models beyond the 7-10 day period have been quite poor at forecasting this pattern.  They have been continuously pushing the ridge back to it’s typical summertime position in the 10-15 day timeframe.  So confidence on a switch to normal or above normal weather is quite low until it shows up within the 7-10 day period.  That said, we do have some warmer and sunny weather the next 3 days, then models have backed off a bit on the upper-level low this weekend.    The ECMWF ensembles keep us near/below normal for the next 10 days.

ecmwf

The GFS ensembles are a bit warmer, but I’ll trust the ECMWF for now and assume this pattern will continue through at least the 20th-22nd of the month.

By the way, there was quite a bit of frost in south central and southeast Oregon Monday morning.  Burns dropped to 30 degrees, although not as cold as the record July cold temp…25 degrees back in July 1986.

MarkTemperature_BurnsRecordLow

Winter is never TOO far away in Burns is it?

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

22 Responses to This July Is Sure Different!

  1. dt says:

    What happen to liana brackett? I see nora back in weather again. Other ch’s are using traffice and news reporters for weather. Is this a new trend coming to save money?

  2. Jesse-SW Portland Suburbs says:

    I’m guessing you have probably gotten a lot of e-mails praising this summer’s weather too, Mark. I follow the Portland NWS on facebook and the majority of the comments have been something along the lines of “Thank god it’s back to normal!”

    But, since you hate cool summer weather you will highlight the e-mails complaining about it. To be expected, I suppose. 🙂

  3. Anonymous says:

    It’s been raining on the coast since a month after that early odd winter storm in late sept or October last yr. Are you sure non stop rain from nov to June is normal. Last summer was beautiful here in Depoe bay area,I’d just moved here then.Need to know if non stop rain for 8 months is normal,if so maybe I’ll have to move back to Beaverton. Thz ahead of time all who may answer me this.

  4. JJ78259 says:

    It is truly amazing how one gets used to the past few years weather. It took at least 5 years for people to get over thinking that another epic 2008 winter is bound to happen again. I am assuming this will happen the past warm years also. Normal Oregon Summer is cool with dabs or rain just as Mark has said normal temps are happening. Weather Dan is Correct in couple of months it will be raining and normal.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    So now it seems that when we have normal Summer temperatures some people on this blog go on and on about how cold it is. I even saw a Julyuary comment recently. Well it is a lot cooler than the last few July’s but it is not cold. In fact as Mark said we are about average. We continue to have very warm nights this Summer. Though a little cooler than last Summer. So far for May 1 through July 13 we are still above normal for temps and below normal for precip. These are facts not denial. It may seem like a chilly wet Summer but it is not. We still have 2.5 months of Summer left. What will they bring? We shall find out in about 2.5 months. However if you feel the need to bloviate on this blog go ahead. Whatever I read here is far more enjoyable than all the party political ads on television or in print. Peace.

  6. Dizzyland says:

    If it weren’t for global………I mean climate change or is it now climate disruption I wonder if this month would’ve actually scored a below average departure?

    Models were showing heights over the GOA at insane values a week ago for this time frame and now we are just AT neutral.

    It seems to take a lot of forcing now just to stay neutral which I can’t help but feel it’s contributed to climate change. Perhaps the smog from China is effecting us as they still use the really dirty coal that has almost zero emissions.

    In Russia the word emission control doesn’t even exist in their dictionary and they’ll look at you like your an alien with two heads if you bring it up.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      They would no doubt welcome a warmer climate there.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      This is the problem with you people. Even when you are seeing below normal departures in a huge area of the country, you turn around and blame it on global warming and say “well, it should be colder.” It is just so ridiculous to me that you actually think you have a legitimate argument when you’re basing things off of what they could be. Or maybe you know you’re wrong but you’re just trying to latch onto any little thing to make reality seem otherwise.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      It’s really not an argument here. Its just an observation.
      As if an marching band is marching down the street and their pants are falling off revealing their underwear. The spectators along the street begin to notice that their pants are in fact, falling off! Whatever the cause of such an incident, the truth is the band is marching along with their pants around their ankles! And the spectators are getting quite a show… 🙂

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    Beautiful day in progress. Already up to 73 on our way to 82. So just a tad above average. Stays this way through Saturday. Actually our mid range outlook 7-16 days looks dry and mainly in the lower 80,s as well. We do however have a slight chance of showers around next Sunday or Monday. Despite what some malcontents think I am enjoying this Summer weather. So enjoy the Summer weather while Ir’s here because another rainy Winter is coming in Just a few months. Peace

  8. Yes, this July is different- but from my position north of the 49th I can say it’s not all THAT different. I’ve seen wetter and cooler Julys before. As we’re still not quite halfway through, I’ll wait a while, before making a bigger statement on it.

    • Dizzyland says:

      Well put. So far I haven’t seen any negative departures as was advertised.

      Models are always going to be wrong if they use bad data which in this case is the old law of averages which no longer apply at least to the extent since the 90s and pre 2010 era.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Headed up your way Monday-Wednesday for mountain biking at Whistler…hope it doesn’t rain much!

  9. Maybe they should rename their town “Freezes”.

    Ba-dump-BA!

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

      Maybe they did that to attract tourism, kinda like “Greenland” did way back when…lol They just forgot to add that instead of sun Burns, it will be freezer “Burns” you have to deal with!

  10. Lynn says:

    I’m so sick of people wanting heat. If they want hot days – move to So California, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico etc. This summer is much BETTER than the last few summers have been. I like it when it’s not as HOT.

    • Katie says:

      I wholeheartedly agree w Lynn’s statement! Thank you Lynn. I, too, am so tired of hearing people complaining bc it’s not ‘hot’ like the last few summers! Bring on the cooler temps Mark, no complaints here! ❄⛄⛄☔💧☁

    • Paul D says:

      RIGHT ON Lynn & Katie!! There’s just one problem with the July weather we’re having: I’m on vacation and not home to enjoy it!!! 😦

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I’m in!

  11. Anonymous says:

    Baffles me that someone would make a large purchase based on the weather a year before. Also goes to show that people don’t realize that mother nature does whatever the f#*k she wants regardless of the time of year. Get over it and move on. Mother nature knows no calender.

    Also, stop sending stupid emails.

  12. Lee Wilson says:

    Thanks for sharing that about southeast Oregon.
    I posted a video on that one.

    Glad to see I was a nutcase.

    My garden is having issues as well.

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