ECMWF Monthly Run

Hmmm, the past two runs (Sunday and last night’s) of the ECMWF run out to 32 days shows the dramatic pattern change will stick around.  That’s the change from very wet to very dry.

We know what’s happening over the next week…upper-level ridging to our west and we’ll be in cool northerly flow.


But then look at the following 3 weeks, ridging slides over and/or northeast of us in southern Canada.  with action apparently going by to the south:




I looked at the daily maps on the WeatherBELL site (can’t show them here) and it definitely is not a DRY pattern, but drier than normal.  Those maps also show cooler than average temps.

There you go…remember it’s just one run (two in this case) of one long-range model.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


65 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    We gonna get any Tower Temps this winter, Mark?

  2. paulbeugene says:

    Both Euro and GFS ensembles trending colder with the cold/cool weather situation next week. This will more resemble November 1978 “minor” arctic air episode than the November 1977 episode. For those that do not remember, Nov 77 had 7 inches of snow fall in PDX. I think there was a skiff of snow that fell during 1978. Temps in the Willamette Valley did get into the teens for a number of nights in a row in 1978. Am expecting temps like 1978 plus about 5 degrees F.

    November 1985, 1955 in a whole other category.

  3. runrain says:

    The USC Marching Band is playing in Pioneer Square in downtown Portland right now. We gave them some nice LA sunshine to perform in. Well, a bit cooler than LA, but if you use your imagination. Some members were taking pictures of the MAX trains. I guess mass transportation is somewhat alien to them. Probably also wondering what are those people doing riding around downtown on BIKES?!?!

    • gidrons says:

      Was there anyone actually on the MAX train?

    • runrain says:

      ALWAYS people on those trains. I’m glad I don’t have to commute on them. Standing room only with lots of germs in the air. I guess you get immune to them.

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      Some Portlanders really have no clue that the rest of the world has passed them by. Not only do they have light rail that goes to the USC campus, it is also much faster and goes underground downtown instead of bouncing along at jogging speed stopping at every block for lights. That’s not even considering Metrolink. Too bad they aren’t playing at home, should be 85 at the Coliseum tomorrow.

    • JohnD says:

      Yeah LA is a mega city most noted for its extensive driving freeway system. But they also have an extensive commuter rails system–both above and below ground. Check it out!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Portland is just weird and that’s why it’ll never be a very thriving place.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    Brilliant sunshine today. 39 this morning. So far this Autumn no frosts and no sub 50 highs. By this time next week we will all ( or most of us ) be stuffed with turkey. Of course Chrissie will be eating a little crow. We might see a rain snow mix down to 1000 feet or even a little below that on Tuesday or Wednesday. But a sunny and cool (not Arctic) Thanksgiving. As Mark said a cool but dry pattern seems to predominate the next three weeks. We really need a good snowpack this Winter but I enjoy the sunshine. I wish you all a very happy Thanksgiving and a Merry Christmas. Peace.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Well dannie, as long as you “enjoy” it (and are willing to share your enjoyment by blathering on and on and on about it), who cares about drought and the livelihoods of those who live and work on the mountain(s). Peace.

  5. buffedman says:

    Neutral (2016) rear its head.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    Over the last 2 days model runs have trended less cold for the weather during the early and middle part of next week, but latest (12z) GFS ensemble run is not warming things up any further.

    Best guess is that we will see lows in low to mid 20s in the Willamette Valley at some point. The MM5 GFS extended shows some snow accumulation near Salem and Eugene but I think that is an artifact of the 12km resolution.

    It seems rather likely that we will feel more like part of the continent rather than the ocean in the next week or two. If we are not going to have much snow falling in the mountains, can we at least not have much fog.

    • MasterNate says:

      It appears to my untrained eye that the models are still deciding exactly how cold it will get next week and when we might see a warm up. Still time for a return to a colder solution. I enjoy reading your educated input. Thanks, and keep it up!

    • Baring a last minute change it seems like the GFS has pretty well settled into a solution. Of course, as we know, the GFS doesn’t typically flop to a colder solution. More often than not it will continue to edge warmer.

    • Wouldn’t mind a few days of cold foggy weather but yeah it gets real old when it goes on and on for a week or more. Some dry crisp days to contrast with how wet it’s been would be a welcome change. Sorta bummed that it looks like it will fall short of arctic blast range but that’s the way it goes.

  7. Longview 400 ft says:

    Christmas came very early this year, if only in words. Wunderground weather is predicting one inch of snow a week from Sunday. This gift of words made me a little giddy with delight even though the possibility is very slim. It’s been a long time since anyone put snowflakes in any forecast for Longview. At this point, I’ll take anything. LOL

    32.2 for a low here

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      With you on the I’ll take anything idea. Just gimme some flakes wandering around and I’ll be happy. Correction, talking about SNOWflakes here! (I’ll see some flakes no doubt)

    • GTS1K' says:

      Aren’t there enough right here?

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      No doubt, GTS.

      Mark will float some more around here eventually.

  8. 27F this morning, and likely to drop a bit lower yet before the sun rises. This is my coldest temperature here since January 1st! Probably will get colder (near 20F) next Wednesday or Thursday.

  9. schmit44 says:

    11/19/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:63 at PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft) & KC7RJK-2 Eugene(381 ft) & Eugene, Mahlon S(364 ft)
    Low: 51 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    High:29 at CW2313 Tollgate(5075 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    Rome (58/29 ) (4049 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.25″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    3.20″ at SALT CREEK FALLS(4220ft)
    3.11″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    2.90″ at CASCADE SUMMIT(5100ft)
    2.71″ at GOODWIN PEAK(1800ft)

  10. BlazerFan32 says:

    Well… Welcome to the El Nino pattern finally I guess because as Marks knows I am more inclined to believe everything the ECMWF pretty much.

    We have been down this road before historically. A false sense of security that the ski season may look good this year and then this happens and then lasts, and lasts, and lasts until like February when we all start waiting for the expectation of springlike weather to then happen but then it pours in March until sometimes through July 4th around here.

    Mark, I am still a bit on the fence here as to what is really going to happen with both a strong El Nino and the blob together since no one really seems to know what will happen because it has never happened before. I am still wondering if El Nino will be more enhanced and wider in coverage on the West Coast than in years without the blob.

    As several know from Brian’s group on Facebook I had some snowfall the other day here in Southeast Tacoma at 453 feet. I was expecting it because a private meteorologist I am friends with made mention of it possibly happening last Sunday morning and so did Morgan Palmer up at KIRO in Seattle. It only made the grass a little white but what is interesting is that the last time I had a trace of snowfall in November 2011 that following January I had 12.7 inches of snowfall altogether over the course of the month. Will it happen again? That remains to be seen.

    Anyhow I think we should all not expect a normal El Nino this fall winter season because if we do we may be all in for unexpected surprises. 🙂

  11. W7ENK says:

    What the hell is that??

    That’s not supposed to be there, and its certainly not supposed to be moving toward us tonight. The forecast doesn’t acknowledge that!

  12. High Desert Mat says:

    Aaaaaaaannnnnddd, another so so run. Not good but better than the 18z. Looks progressive and looks as if we kind get into a zonal pattern in the mid-range. At least we arent getting into the ridgy El Ninoish pattern as of yet.

  13. Farmer Ted says:

    Over in Salmon Idaho snow all day 28 degrees and a winter weather advisory for 6 inches more. Just got to be in the right place

  14. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    39 out here in BG.

  15. Boring Oregon says:

    Mark your new middle name should be buzzkillington. Lol

  16. Mark bergal says:

    Seriously, especially as its getting cold out. Makes me want to renew my prescription of prozac

  17. Boring Oregon says:

    It’s amazing how fast the mood changed here from one bad run of models.

  18. High Desert Mat says:

    00z initializing…… come on gfs, bring it all back please!!!!!

  19. Eugene Dave says:

    Blech. I’ve taken my snowmobile out exactly twice in the last 2 years (none last year) due to the crappy mountain snowpack. Please let this not be the 3rd terrible year in a row.

  20. JohnD says:

    ‘Works for me. ‘Could be a whole lot worse! We’ll see!

  21. Fogversion inbound!

  22. Sifton says:

    Heck, I’m down…..

  23. Sapo says:

    Ya looks interesting..not a terrible thing to be dry now after the flooding the rivers had, not sure if they need any more water lol. Would be nice to see a pattern change. Not looking like any early snow shower potential next week, sadly. 18z operational is the warmest so far of the GFS runs and the ECMWF isn’t any better. At least it’ll be drier!

  24. Mark bergal says:

    Doesnt look like a classic el.nino pattern either

    • High Desert Mat says:

      I dont know, looks really Nino ish to me. High pressure over us or north of us with the storm track south? Ya, el Nino sucks.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Looks like El Nino to me too…hope it switches back to mtn snow soon or my season’s pass goes back into hibernation for another year..

  25. Matt (Vancouver 98683 @150ft) says:

    Beggars can’t be choosers, can they? =) Got to have cold first, so we’ll take it!

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