Colder & Drier Next 7-10 Days

11pm Wednesday…This first half of November has been extremely wet to the north and west of the Portland metro area.  Here in Portland precipitation has been about average and a bit below normal (so far) in southern Oregon.

MarkRain_NW_TotalsThose Washington and coastal rain totals have been amazing.  11″ at Olympia just a little past halfway through the month…

But things are about to change…I think splitting systems and upper-level ridging nearby will be the dominant theme for the next 10 days.

Next week (Thanksgiving Week!) ridging to our northwest will allow a surge of colder air to slip south.  That happens Tuesday and Wednesday.  Models earlier today were VERY cold, and I didn’t jump on that right away.  This evenings runs of the GEM, ECMWF, & GFS are a bit more reasonable with a very chilly, but mainly dry pattern most of next week.  You get the general picture here:

MarkJetStream

Is it cold enough that we could see snow?  Possible, but as of now I’d lean towards scattered showers Tuesday and/or early Wednesday and then just turning mainly sunny and cool heading into Thanksgiving.  That’s definitely subject to change since we’re talking about something 6-7 days away, thus the reason I’m not all excited about it yet.

By the way, the 15 day ensemble charts from the GEM/GFS/ECMWF all show the ridging developing early next week hangs around for the next two weeks, but flopping more right over us or just north.  Here are the 500mb height anomaly maps for around December 3rd…two weeks from now.  Click on each for a larger view:

The good news is that the weekend looks really nice with abundant sunshine, comfortable days, and chilly nights!  We should see the most widespread frost so far over the weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

29 Responses to Colder & Drier Next 7-10 Days

  1. Boring Oregon says:

    Buzz=Killed

  2. Sapo says:

    GFS and ECMWF both looking a lot warmer..so much for that.

  3. Looks like we have a chance for snow (snowflurries to be more exact) late Monday/early Tuesday, then clearing skies and temperatures forecasted to drop down to the low 20’s the next night. Well, that seems familiar… Something like that happened late last November also. Let’s hope it doesn’t repeat what happened next in early December!

  4. runrain says:

    Solid NE winds breaking through at Hoquiam and Astoria. They’re having an interesting effect on the visible satellite.

  5. Josh "the snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

    How about “getting ridgy wit it”? Lol

    In all seriousness the longs range doesn’t appear to want to keep the death ridge in tact all next week. In fact I think we have a good chance with the cold pool being established this early. Models don’t advertise surface lows very well and we could get surprised in the next 10 days. Seen it happen way way too many times. Let’s all cross our fingers and toes.

  6. runrain says:

    Looking forward to our first miss of snow forecast. As all the old time bloggers know, that’s when I release my current version of “I Can’t Get Snow” (sung to the tune of the Stones “Satisfaction”). All new lyrics this year too!

  7. paulbeugene says:

    F R O S T

  8. W7ENK says:

    8 minutes of mayhem.

    Dash cam video of our storm and resultant flooding on Tuesday evening.

    Enjoy!

  9. W7ENK says:

    That looks like a perfect setup for a strong and prolonged fogversion. Throw down a ton of rain in the valley (check!), get the cold air in here (maybe?), then cap it in place with strong high pressure overhead. Days on end of 35 degree pea soup fog… Maybe some 70+ temps up on the highest peaks, just to add insult to injury?

    • Well, at least it would feel like winter. But fogversions tend to get old as they drag on. The past few years have caused me to get a nervous twitch each time the word “ridge” comes up.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I think in the metro area the dry/cool air coming in from the north /east will prevent that next week. This weekend too. Pretty strong easterly flow through the Gorge most of the next 10 days

  10. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Hey Mark, how much snow did you get in the gorge?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      None, I’m at the west end so a very nice 38 degree rain this morning. Looks like it was above 1,000′ only in HR Valley and Maupin/Dufur areas. Nice to see Maupin get over 1/2″ of rain, that’s rare and much needed rain

  11. MasterNate says:

    OK, I will do it. First winter bust in progress. Models trending warmer for next week. I believe that was fair play since we were in the 7 day forecasting zone. I mean, we even had Paul posting and Paul doesn’t waste his time unless it gets within 10 days. Still time for the models to revert back to super cold. It has happened!

  12. And the cold air begins to shift east per standard operating procedures for PNW cold air events.

    • I still think we’re going to get some, just because the models have all been pretty consistently trending in that direction. The question is how much. I think the ‘poose’s comments about flip-flopping will prove to be spot on.

  13. Good to get a break from the rain. i know people are suspicious that this ridge will last a long time, but I’m bettting it will be gone before the end of the month.

  14. Mark bergal says:

    This isnt the permanent ridging we saw last year, is it?

  15. jimbo says:

    First? Really?

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