3rd run in the past 10 days showing quite a bit of ridging lingering near us to the north and east. Very interesting that WeatherBELL forecast this “classic” El Nino pattern for a winter average.
Weeks 1-4, click on each for a larger view
While examining the dailies it looked less ridgy to me in that last week, with heights actually a bit below normal overhead. The 32 day rain total for the Willamette Valley is about 4″ with the ensembles and only around 2″ on the control run. That control run only showed 1′ or so of snow in the Cascades…we’ll hope that’s not the case. The ensembles had 2-3′ of snow in the Cascades by Christmas Eve (Day 32)
Big picture: Warmer than normal mountain temps are possible along with drier than normal weather through the next 2+ weeks.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen