ECMWF Monthly Run

November 19, 2015

Hmmm, the past two runs (Sunday and last night’s) of the ECMWF run out to 32 days shows the dramatic pattern change will stick around.  That’s the change from very wet to very dry.

We know what’s happening over the next week…upper-level ridging to our west and we’ll be in cool northerly flow.

500za_week1_bg_NA

But then look at the following 3 weeks, ridging slides over and/or northeast of us in southern Canada.  with action apparently going by to the south:

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

I looked at the daily maps on the WeatherBELL site (can’t show them here) and it definitely is not a DRY pattern, but drier than normal.  Those maps also show cooler than average temps.

There you go…remember it’s just one run (two in this case) of one long-range model.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen