9pm Wednesday
We didn’t have any record highs today, but what a beautiful day with sunshine and warm temps. We hit 59 in Portland and Troutdale hit 60. The Dalles and Redmond saw record highs of 66 & 69. It has been quite a run of warm temperatures ever since 2018 arrived; January was the 2nd warmest on record. Only two days in the past 13 have been below normal in Portland!
Another interesting fact? We haven’t seen a frost in Portland in the past 36 days! This graphic is from yesterday.
Our typical “last frost” of late winter or spring in Portland is around mid-March; that’s what happened last year.
So it’s unlikely we’re done with frost, especially since we see a cooler airmass moving down over us over the next 5 days.
The 10 days of snow accumulation in late January didn’t do much good, especially when followed by the 4-5 days of warm weather and rain. Most of Oregon has less than 50% of the typical February 7th snowpack on the ground. Most likely streamflows will be below normal this coming summer in much of the state according to the NRCS. Here’s a link to their February Water Supply Outlook Report: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/or/watersupply/2018/WSOR_2018_Feb.pdf
There is no significant change in sight right now. The upper-level ridging that has been so prevalent near or west of the West Coast since early January shows no signs of budging. It moves slightly west on Monday, allowing a chilly airmass to drop south over us. But that doesn’t bring more than a foot of snow to the mountains.
Check out the 10 day map from the same ECMWF ensembles, then the 15 day map, which takes us into the last few days of February.
It’s the same general pattern. If this is correct, February is going to go down in the record books like 2015 & 2016…very warm. It also appears that at least the first half of the month will be unusually dry too. The ECMWF model from this morning produced less than 1/2″ of rain in the next 10 days!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
40.8 for the high today at my house in OC. (against a predicted high of 52)
So, guys, what is your best guess of the overnight low in HIO tomorrow morning? Below 20F anyone? 😉
Sorry, mis-posted. Disregard here…
2/19-20, late February snowstorm? One last blast of old man winter…or I guess this winters only blast not counting Christmas Eve. Let it happen!
For the sake of weather!! Please ditch that dumb blonde weather girl. She is awful!
Don’t watch it if she upsets you sooooo much.
You live in seattle…. STFU
I don’t even live in Washington. But lol. You trigger very easily.
Hmmm, 12Z EURO is very interesting!!!
Oh, saw a Russian cargo plane fly over my area this afternoon. Haven’t seen one for awhile. I had to look closely to see what type of plane it was but when the landing gear came down I could tell it wasn’t any US plane. All the wheels were in a straight row on either side of the fuselage. It had four engines and was as big as a 747.
Let’s hope the EURO keeps up the trend 🙂
It’s a Anatov AN124. Its landed here once a month for the past 2 years.
I just happen to be outside when it went by my house. It’s the first time I have seen it. I went to the airport and took some pictures of it.
Uh oh…you’re probably going be called on by Mueller or Putin.
If I were you, I wouldn’t be ‘rushin’ to answer the door.
Well today’s quick cold snap turned in to a busted forecast. Today’s weather is just like yesterdays and the day before and the day before that.
Meet the new boss! Same as the old boss! https://youtu.be/SHhrZgojY1Q?t=7m43s The Who Won’t Get Fooled again.
The week after this upcoming week is looking cold! Pretty good model agreement too. Only 8-10 days out. Ha.
50’s and mostly sunny through next weekend.
Mowed lawn today… the grass is growing quickly with no overnight freezing soil temps are allowing weeds to also have an early start. Looks like a change coming later next weekend. The ECMWF showing this now consistently as also the GFS. Climate Prediction Center has is now below normal for temps. Only time will tell???
The 00z ECMWF last night looked really bad but this afternoon one looked much better. I wouldn’t mind low level snow but what I’m hoping for mostly is to have more snow for the mountains. We really need it badly up there. Just my thoughts 😉
some are saying Freezing, how ever weather channel has it as rain. and weather app has a few storms out in the Pacific.So I, I won’t trust future predictions over 3 days. heck, I don’t even trust the prediction for us to see sun on monday and tuesday.
Could be an epic weed season considering the mild winter we’ve been having.
Hello fellow weather watchers and forcasters, well today was an ok Day for Solar, but I won’t go in to that, but instead , let me ask this question. Any one here ever use an e-lectric mower? I can’t seem to find the gas tank on the thing..Oh..wait..its a battery..that is its fuel tank. any who, I decided I had enough with the gas guzling smoke belcing, kick the darn thing and choke the heck of out it machinees , so I went with the electric mower. glad I did to. all funnies aside, it did well handling our lawn and I just plug the charger in to our inverter and now I really don’t have to pay for fueling the device that eats the grass .
So, How about it, any one else here use one of them wierd gadjets? I hear there are some electric gocarts with mowers on them as well lol..eh aka ..Elctric riding mower..I havnt that kind of meny..but…they are cool… Our next door neighbor said it was quiet, and the yard looks nice..
simple things to repair to. So that is what I did on this some what sunny day…Get out there and mow your yard..it will bring rain 🙂
Okay, so…
I can’t decide if this is Kyle AKA “Spray and pray” it yet another new alias, or if Lee Wilson in Longview changed his alias. 🤔
Either way, someone is breaking Mark’s
Rule #2.
I’m leaning heavily toward Longview Lee, based solely on the common misspellings and overt fascination with solar/electric “gadjets.”
OK, here is the good news, you can say you heard it here first!
~ I have insider information….. a premonition if you want to call it that…..a dream from the “Great Spirit Chief” let’s say ~
“One last chance cold Artic Blast coming our way around the 20th of February….daytime highs in the mid-30’s and lows overnight around 19 degrees with a trace and up to 2″ of snow” I am still surprised as I did not think this would happen this year, but there is no use in arguing with the powers to be.”
Mushrooms for supper tonight?
Magic ones, apparently.
And perhaps a bit too much?
The Euro keeps getting more and more interesting. I do have a question if anyone can tell me. Is the ECMWF the same thing as the EURO? I’m just trying to find out if they are different models. Thanks 🙂
Yep. Same thing. Basically, the ECMWF is the European model. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.
After I posted the comment I thought to myself, “ok, this is probably really stupid” LOL. Thank you, I thought it was but just thought I would ask. I will admit, the Euro has been trending cooler. I don’t want to get my hopes up so I’ll seem not excited…LOL
Not stupid. No worries. Yea, the 12z ECMWF was pretty nice. Let’s see if the 00z keeps hope alive. The 18z GFS sucks, but who cares about the GFS anyway?
Yea, the GFS seem to change a lot and when it does it’s drastically. The ECMWF seems to be constant. We’ll see how things turn out the next few days with it 🙂
Some arctic air is supposed to come in here tonight. Good- I want to see these dreary clouds out of the way for a change.
Today’s ECMWF model showing bad door push of cold air Feb. 18th and 19th.
🤔back door
I assuming you wanted to say “back door” lol. I saw that too. It’s been trending much cooler the past few runs. 🙂
Yep, 12z gfs as well again…haha, time to get back in the model ride, until 18z 🎢
only 288 hrs out!
The NWS says to stay tuned for possible interesting weather next week. I’m interested in interesting weather for next week. This is the most excitement weather wise since Christmas Eve.
I think it is ok to ride the models one more time before Spring comes.
Then away we go, let’s ride!
I thought Spring was already here …
For all but 3 days around X-mas. I got 0.20 of freezing rain that froze the rubbish bins shut but strangely the roads didn’t ice over except higher in the hills.
Somebody’s yanking your chain and you’re falling for it! Spring has reared it’s ugly head early and there’s no going back!
Normally I’d be griping just as loudly about this lack of a winter, but we are moving to Rapid City, SD in a few months and I am pretty much guaranteed exciting winters every year. Add in 40+ thunderstorms a year and I’ll be in weather geek heaven. Bring it on!
Lucky guy!!!!
Just be sure to get a generator..and some loar panels might be a good thing to have as well 🙂 I don’t want to be reading about you in weaqther related bews lol.
Mark, you’re in for it! Good for you … hope you enjoy it.
Way too early to be talking “last frost”….heck I get frost and freezing mornings into early May on a regular basis…..it’s still winter with lots of cold rain to come before the 5th of July.
I guess you weren’t around 2 years ago when the chart above shows that, despite your unassailable store of wisdom, the last frost was Feb. 2. My calendar shows that date passed a week ago.
I’m sure the weather in your little corner of Paradise is different in all the best ways, however.
Nahtalkin – yet he persists in talkin’ – the Elizabeth Warren of the blog….
…given the depth and tree shade of the little hollow where you live, late frosts arent that surprising…
Lest we not forget, Farmer Tedward lives in a little
$#!+hole microclimate called Barton.
Strange things happen in Barton, and I’m Nahtalkin
just the weather!
Yeah it’s called micro climates. San Francisco has no less then 5 of them making it a vary interesting place to live. One side can be socked in most of the summer and never get out of the 60s while the other is in the 80s/90s and sometimes 100s just a few miles apart.
.and it’s just as fun in the winter as you can get hard frosts when other places do not as most record lows are in the low 20s.
If it wasn’t for Erik’s wry sense of humor/comments about “Nahtalkin” I would keep finding them (“Nahtalkin’s) comments annoying, if not upsetting. Of course it comes with experience too. Whenever I see the “N” word I simply override. Utterly unworthy of any reading whatsoever!
I reckon you live in the valley in a sheltered spot. There are such spots. Silverton is mostly hilly so cold air drains in low spots and can cause frost later into the year in some sections.
With these nice mild temps all winter , and after mowing my yard this week, I see a over abundance of moss all over the roof and yard. Ugh!
While I love warm sunshine, place me in the camp with all those that say “This sucks!”
It’s Winter. I want Winter, dammit!!
But oh well. After last Winter’s epic snow dump, we were pretty much destined for a crappy Winter. Besides — and I’ve mentioned this multiple times — next Winter falls into our 5-year snow cycle. Last Winter was a fluke, a mistake.
The camp welcomes you 🙂
Mowed my lawn yesterday. That’s the earliest I’ve ever mowed. Not a good thing. I enjoy the break from yard work in the winter and I’ve been shortchanged again.
While we have been seeing warmer temps the last few decades the last 7 years have been on a whole different level. Back in 2014 I mentioned on this blog that we had had 3 straight years of very warm temps. At that time Mark called it a blip and not evident of a true change. Well this is now our 7th consecutive year of very warm temps. I don’t think this is a blip. Oh sure we will have some cold years ahead. But more likely are these these insanely warm temps year around from here on out. As to what is causing these temperature rises I can’t say. I am not a scientist. I have my suspicions but will keep them to myself. But that our climate has changed seems to be self evident. Peace.
Been changing for 3-4 billion years.
Don’t bother to say it as unless you go along with the meme you are a betrayer of sorts for some odd reason. You can’t say anything unless you hate the automotive industry to hell and back never mind that horses caused more pollution in the late 1800s in big cities and horse accidents were severe when they do occur.
You’d be lucky not to have a broken neck.
The automotive industry is one area the government is not happy unless you all drive tiny electric cars where you rub shoulders like being in an ‘economy’ seat of an airplane only all the time. Not just for 3 hours to the next airport and you can get away from Mr Smelly Feet when you disembark and kiss the ground.
Hell they are hammering it in the State Legislature to push the gas tax again where if you drive more then 4 miles or some real small number like that you pay more at the pump then the person next to you whom hardly ever leaves town and want to charge people to drive on 1-5 in the suburbs of Portland. What that means is you Mr Poor wont’ be able to afford it leaving you to drive the surface streets with millions of other Mr Poors. The ultra rich will of course have exemptions BUT eventually they too will have to drive on the surface streets and be stuck in traffic worse then now.
It’s not even a solution short term or long term.
As for gas mileage taxing:
Sensors on the newer smart cars will determine how far you have driven and send data to the government to tax you at the pump each time you fill er up.
Why? Because YOU are dangerous to the planet’s eco system as in their minds CO2 must be the ONLY cause of the world dying. They manipulate photos and scream HEADLINES LIKE THIS!!!! which are click bait articles.
We gotta kill people to save people. Al Gore is one of the most BS persons out there among the group.
BTW: My reply is to Weather Dan. I love your posts WD but many do not like people who seem smarter then them. It just drives them up a wall as they are taught that “feeling” is better and if your truth hurts their feelings then you must be somehow at fault.
There’s a chance we’ll see our first freezing temperature here on Saturday night since January 3rd. Hope it happens, because as of December 21st (the official start of winter) I’ve only counted 12 days here. If that number stays the same right to March 20 (the end of the season) it’ll be the fewest days with a freezing daily minimum for me since the winter of 1991-92- and that one was an El Nino winter!
(that one had 12 also)
Maybe the meteorologist got confused and did a typo on their charts and paperwork and this winter should have been a El Nino winter!!!!
With climate manipulation going on and them not telling us who knows anymore. It’s back to 85F in southern California. They stopped spraying for one and a half month during Trump’s election time and Cali got it’s rain back in droves.
Sometime in March 2017 the spraying continued and nary a drop fell since. Just recently a month ago spraying stopped for a few days and lol and behold more rain came in. Once the allotment was used up the chems came back and it’s to the deep fryer.
Oh We got Freezing, had a lot of ice right after a rain…ouch. turned our road in to a icerink.
More bad news.
Last week of January was an awesome ski vacation with 3 day trip to Timberline overnight. Snow was the best of the season. Timberline hasn’t even broke the 90″ base mark. Work is crazy and I’m sure water well work will only get worse here in Oregon. Our water doesn’t grow on trees you know and eventually they’ll all be burned up. And we thought Wildfire season 2017 was bad…
Last week of January was an awesome ski vacation with 3 day trip to Timberline overnight. Snow was the best of the season. Timberline hasn’t even broke the 90″ base mark. Work is crazy and I’m sure water well work will only get worse here in Oregon. Our water doesn’t grow on trees you know and eventually they’ll all be burned up. And we thought Wildfire season 2017 was bad…
One thing about the % snowpack is our snowpack increases into April most locations so by the time we get into Spring those number will look horrible if March doesn’t roar like a lion. I’ll go for a long wet below normal spring & summer.
Funny I replied to my own post and it posted the entire post, maybe we should take warning ⚠️
Maybe you should get some sleep :0
What do you mean by “worse” Jason? Does that mean that you’ll get more work or that it’ll be harder for you to tap in to an aquifer?
What he means is in the coming years you’ll have to go deeper and deeper to get water if you run off of well water but you know everyone in Oregon lives in Portland right?
Fantastic. Love this weather.
Let’s shoot for that death ridge after Valentine’s Day this year, Mark!