Some heavy snow showers are rolling through NW Oregon and SW Washington this morning. When they hit it looks like your neighborhood briefly inside a snow globe doesn’t it?
Our forecast has been working out perfectly so far (surprise!) with most lowland locations getting either nothing, or just a light dusting. Coolest temps have been west and north metro and that’s still the case at 10am:
That southerly breeze is still going which is almost always a snow-killer at the very lowest elevations:
Quick look at ODOT and WADOT cameras shows most areas bare at 9am, and all roads clear in the lowlands too
The forecast remains the same today…we can just chop off the morning part:
NOW THROUGH 6PM
– Snow showers continue, lots of sunbreaks too. In fact it may be just partly cloudy the entire 2nd half of the day for many of us.
– NEAR/ABOVE 1,000′ Some light accumulation at times since temps remain closer to freezing up there. Slushy or wet roads up there
– LOWER ELEVATIONS Wet or dry roads, snow in the air at times…we top out in the lower 40s
THIS EVENING AFTER 6 PM
– Light snow showers could stick anywhere and then eventually end. If you get lucky, a heavy shower could pass right over your neighborhood and you get a quick inch! This happened during a very similar weather pattern January 1st, LAST YEAR. A line of heavy showers dropped up to 2″ snow from Canby over to Molalla while most of us got nothing or just a dusting.
TOTAL SNOW BY THE TIME IT DRIES OUT TONIGHT?
- NOTHING TO 1/2″ Most likely for lowest elevations of Western OR & Clark County
- TRACE-1″ more likely Kalama to Longview (slightly “wetter” up there)
- 1-3″ near/above 1,000′
*** I’ll be on the air 5-6 PM on FOX12, then 8-10PM on FOX12 PLUS (the old PDX-TV 49 or 13 on cable), then 10-11:30PM on FOX12. Lots of newscasts on weekends now too! ***
– Dry skies, frozen ground/streets. If no snow falls in your neighborhood this evening, then it’ll just be scattered icy spots for AM commute.
REST OF MONDAY Roads dry out, chilly and mainly sunny
Nice surface low is spinning down through Western Washington right now and will pass right over or just north of the metro area by early afternoon. I have a feeling someone will get lucky in the metro area and see a quick dump of 1-2″ snow under a heavy shower band…sometime between now and when it dries out this evening. But of course I don’t know where.
Late tonight through Tuesday midday is an easy forecast…cold & dry. 850mb temperature forecasts have been consistent showing at least a -11 deg. at 850mb during the daytime tomorrow. As usual, the NAM is on the cold side, but GFS and ECMWF have been more reasonable. Getting to -10 or below is somewhat rare, even in winter here. In fact if the Salem sounding site gets down to -11, that might be the coldest in a few years. I don’t recall that happening last winter, most of that cold air was low-level for each of those events.
12z models (haven’t seen ECMWF yet) have backed off a little on possible widespread snow Tuesday night in NW Oregon and SW Washington. The ECMWF and GEM went full-on snow event for Tuesday night & Wednesday AM. No warming southerly low-level wind and a dry airmass (for evaporational cooling)
Note the 2-4″ snow in metro area followed by clearing and frozen conditions Wednesday AM! Remember this is last night’s run. That “BC Slider” forecast to come down the coastline is a bit farther offshore on the NAM/GFS this morning, while the morning GEM & ECMWF still sends snow over us. I’ll be watching it closely!
See you on-the-air this evening! Well, actually it’s a one-way thing. You can see me but not the other direction.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen