Warm & Dry February Weather Continues

9pm Wednesday

We didn’t have any record highs today, but what a beautiful day with sunshine and warm temps.  We hit 59 in Portland and Troutdale hit 60.  The Dalles and Redmond saw record highs of 66 & 69.  It has been quite a run of warm temperatures ever since 2018 arrived; January was the 2nd warmest on record.  Only two days in the past 13 have been below normal in Portland!

High Temp Last 13 Days

Another interesting fact?  We haven’t seen a frost in Portland in the past 36 days!  This graphic is from yesterday.

Cold Nights Freezing Portland

Our typical “last frost” of late winter or spring in Portland is around mid-March; that’s what happened last year.

Mark First Frost Last Few Years

So it’s unlikely we’re done with frost, especially since we see a cooler airmass moving down over us over the next 5 days.

The 10 days of snow accumulation in late January didn’t do much good, especially when followed by the 4-5 days of warm weather and rain.  Most of Oregon has less than 50% of the typical February 7th snowpack on the ground.  Most likely streamflows will be below normal this coming summer in much of the state according to the NRCS.  Here’s a link to their February Water Supply Outlook Report:  https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/states/or/watersupply/2018/WSOR_2018_Feb.pdf

Snowpack Oregon Plus Facts

Snowpack Oregon Plus Facts2

There is no significant change in sight right now.  The upper-level ridging that has been so prevalent near or west of the West Coast since early January shows no signs of budging.  It moves slightly west on Monday, allowing a chilly airmass to drop south over us.  But that doesn’t bring more than a foot of snow to the mountains.

m500za_f120_bg_NA

Check out the 10 day map from the same ECMWF ensembles, then the 15 day map, which takes us into the last few days of February.

It’s the same general pattern.  If this is correct, February is going to go down in the record books like 2015 & 2016…very warm.  It also appears that at least the first half of the month will be unusually dry too.  The ECMWF model from this morning produced less than 1/2″ of rain in the next 10 days!

ecmwf_tprecip_portland_41

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

73 Responses to Warm & Dry February Weather Continues

  1. ocpaul says:

    40.8 for the high today at my house in OC. (against a predicted high of 52)

  2. oregonalex (Rock Creek, 240 ft) says:

    So, guys, what is your best guess of the overnight low in HIO tomorrow morning? Below 20F anyone? 😉

  3. Registered Nerd says:

    2/19-20, late February snowstorm? One last blast of old man winter…or I guess this winters only blast not counting Christmas Eve. Let it happen!

  4. F40 Fan says:

    For the sake of weather!! Please ditch that dumb blonde weather girl. She is awful!

  5. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Hmmm, 12Z EURO is very interesting!!!

    Oh, saw a Russian cargo plane fly over my area this afternoon. Haven’t seen one for awhile. I had to look closely to see what type of plane it was but when the landing gear came down I could tell it wasn’t any US plane. All the wheels were in a straight row on either side of the fuselage. It had four engines and was as big as a 747.

    Let’s hope the EURO keeps up the trend 🙂

  6. Nahtalkin says:

    Well today’s quick cold snap turned in to a busted forecast. Today’s weather is just like yesterdays and the day before and the day before that.

  7. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    The week after this upcoming week is looking cold! Pretty good model agreement too. Only 8-10 days out. Ha.

  8. Anonymous says:

    50’s and mostly sunny through next weekend.

  9. Jason Hougak says:

    Mowed lawn today… the grass is growing quickly with no overnight freezing soil temps are allowing weeds to also have an early start. Looks like a change coming later next weekend. The ECMWF showing this now consistently as also the GFS. Climate Prediction Center has is now below normal for temps. Only time will tell???

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      The 00z ECMWF last night looked really bad but this afternoon one looked much better. I wouldn’t mind low level snow but what I’m hoping for mostly is to have more snow for the mountains. We really need it badly up there. Just my thoughts 😉

    • some are saying Freezing, how ever weather channel has it as rain. and weather app has a few storms out in the Pacific.So I, I won’t trust future predictions over 3 days. heck, I don’t even trust the prediction for us to see sun on monday and tuesday.

    • Nahtalkin says:

      Could be an epic weed season considering the mild winter we’ve been having.

  10. Hello fellow weather watchers and forcasters, well today was an ok Day for Solar, but I won’t go in to that, but instead , let me ask this question. Any one here ever use an e-lectric mower? I can’t seem to find the gas tank on the thing..Oh..wait..its a battery..that is its fuel tank. any who, I decided I had enough with the gas guzling smoke belcing, kick the darn thing and choke the heck of out it machinees , so I went with the electric mower. glad I did to. all funnies aside, it did well handling our lawn and I just plug the charger in to our inverter and now I really don’t have to pay for fueling the device that eats the grass .
    So, How about it, any one else here use one of them wierd gadjets? I hear there are some electric gocarts with mowers on them as well lol..eh aka ..Elctric riding mower..I havnt that kind of meny..but…they are cool… Our next door neighbor said it was quiet, and the yard looks nice..

    simple things to repair to. So that is what I did on this some what sunny day…Get out there and mow your yard..it will bring rain 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      Okay, so…

      I can’t decide if this is Kyle AKA “Spray and pray” it yet another new alias, or if Lee Wilson in Longview changed his alias. 🤔

      Either way, someone is breaking Mark’s
      Rule #2.

      I’m leaning heavily toward Longview Lee, based solely on the common misspellings and overt fascination with solar/electric “gadjets.”

  11. Nahtalkin says:

    OK, here is the good news, you can say you heard it here first!

    ~ I have insider information….. a premonition if you want to call it that…..a dream from the “Great Spirit Chief” let’s say ~

    “One last chance cold Artic Blast coming our way around the 20th of February….daytime highs in the mid-30’s and lows overnight around 19 degrees with a trace and up to 2″ of snow” I am still surprised as I did not think this would happen this year, but there is no use in arguing with the powers to be.”

  12. Ken in Wood Village says:

    The Euro keeps getting more and more interesting. I do have a question if anyone can tell me. Is the ECMWF the same thing as the EURO? I’m just trying to find out if they are different models. Thanks 🙂

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      Yep. Same thing. Basically, the ECMWF is the European model. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        After I posted the comment I thought to myself, “ok, this is probably really stupid” LOL. Thank you, I thought it was but just thought I would ask. I will admit, the Euro has been trending cooler. I don’t want to get my hopes up so I’ll seem not excited…LOL

      • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

        Not stupid. No worries. Yea, the 12z ECMWF was pretty nice. Let’s see if the 00z keeps hope alive. The 18z GFS sucks, but who cares about the GFS anyway?

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          Yea, the GFS seem to change a lot and when it does it’s drastically. The ECMWF seems to be constant. We’ll see how things turn out the next few days with it 🙂

  13. Roland Derksen says:

    Some arctic air is supposed to come in here tonight. Good- I want to see these dreary clouds out of the way for a change.

  14. Jason Hougak says:

    Today’s ECMWF model showing bad door push of cold air Feb. 18th and 19th.

  15. Longview 400 ft says:

    The NWS says to stay tuned for possible interesting weather next week. I’m interested in interesting weather for next week. This is the most excitement weather wise since Christmas Eve.

    I think it is ok to ride the models one more time before Spring comes.

  16. Normally I’d be griping just as loudly about this lack of a winter, but we are moving to Rapid City, SD in a few months and I am pretty much guaranteed exciting winters every year. Add in 40+ thunderstorms a year and I’ll be in weather geek heaven. Bring it on!

  17. Nahtalkin says:

    Way too early to be talking “last frost”….heck I get frost and freezing mornings into early May on a regular basis…..it’s still winter with lots of cold rain to come before the 5th of July.

    • GTS1Kft says:

      I guess you weren’t around 2 years ago when the chart above shows that, despite your unassailable store of wisdom, the last frost was Feb. 2. My calendar shows that date passed a week ago.

      I’m sure the weather in your little corner of Paradise is different in all the best ways, however.

      Nahtalkin – yet he persists in talkin’ – the Elizabeth Warren of the blog….

    • …given the depth and tree shade of the little hollow where you live, late frosts arent that surprising…

    • W7ENK says:

      Lest we not forget, Farmer Tedward lives in a little
      $#!+hole microclimate called Barton.

      Strange things happen in Barton, and I’m Nahtalkin
      just the weather!

      • Sprayandpay says:

        Yeah it’s called micro climates. San Francisco has no less then 5 of them making it a vary interesting place to live. One side can be socked in most of the summer and never get out of the 60s while the other is in the 80s/90s and sometimes 100s just a few miles apart.

        .and it’s just as fun in the winter as you can get hard frosts when other places do not as most record lows are in the low 20s.

      • JohnD says:

        If it wasn’t for Erik’s wry sense of humor/comments about “Nahtalkin” I would keep finding them (“Nahtalkin’s) comments annoying, if not upsetting. Of course it comes with experience too. Whenever I see the “N” word I simply override. Utterly unworthy of any reading whatsoever!

    • Sprayandpay says:

      I reckon you live in the valley in a sheltered spot. There are such spots. Silverton is mostly hilly so cold air drains in low spots and can cause frost later into the year in some sections.

  18. Anonymous says:

    With these nice mild temps all winter , and after mowing my yard this week, I see a over abundance of moss all over the roof and yard. Ugh!

  19. W7ENK says:

    While I love warm sunshine, place me in the camp with all those that say “This sucks!”

    It’s Winter. I want Winter, dammit!!

    But oh well. After last Winter’s epic snow dump, we were pretty much destined for a crappy Winter. Besides — and I’ve mentioned this multiple times — next Winter falls into our 5-year snow cycle. Last Winter was a fluke, a mistake.

    • Paul D says:

      The camp welcomes you 🙂

      Mowed my lawn yesterday. That’s the earliest I’ve ever mowed. Not a good thing. I enjoy the break from yard work in the winter and I’ve been shortchanged again.

  20. WEATHERDAN says:

    While we have been seeing warmer temps the last few decades the last 7 years have been on a whole different level. Back in 2014 I mentioned on this blog that we had had 3 straight years of very warm temps. At that time Mark called it a blip and not evident of a true change. Well this is now our 7th consecutive year of very warm temps. I don’t think this is a blip. Oh sure we will have some cold years ahead. But more likely are these these insanely warm temps year around from here on out. As to what is causing these temperature rises I can’t say. I am not a scientist. I have my suspicions but will keep them to myself. But that our climate has changed seems to be self evident. Peace.

    • ocpaul says:

      Been changing for 3-4 billion years.

    • Sprayandpay says:

      Don’t bother to say it as unless you go along with the meme you are a betrayer of sorts for some odd reason. You can’t say anything unless you hate the automotive industry to hell and back never mind that horses caused more pollution in the late 1800s in big cities and horse accidents were severe when they do occur.

      You’d be lucky not to have a broken neck.

    • Sprayandpay says:

      The automotive industry is one area the government is not happy unless you all drive tiny electric cars where you rub shoulders like being in an ‘economy’ seat of an airplane only all the time. Not just for 3 hours to the next airport and you can get away from Mr Smelly Feet when you disembark and kiss the ground.

      Hell they are hammering it in the State Legislature to push the gas tax again where if you drive more then 4 miles or some real small number like that you pay more at the pump then the person next to you whom hardly ever leaves town and want to charge people to drive on 1-5 in the suburbs of Portland. What that means is you Mr Poor wont’ be able to afford it leaving you to drive the surface streets with millions of other Mr Poors. The ultra rich will of course have exemptions BUT eventually they too will have to drive on the surface streets and be stuck in traffic worse then now.

      It’s not even a solution short term or long term.

      As for gas mileage taxing:
      Sensors on the newer smart cars will determine how far you have driven and send data to the government to tax you at the pump each time you fill er up.

      Why? Because YOU are dangerous to the planet’s eco system as in their minds CO2 must be the ONLY cause of the world dying. They manipulate photos and scream HEADLINES LIKE THIS!!!! which are click bait articles.

      We gotta kill people to save people. Al Gore is one of the most BS persons out there among the group.

    • Sprayandpay says:

      BTW: My reply is to Weather Dan. I love your posts WD but many do not like people who seem smarter then them. It just drives them up a wall as they are taught that “feeling” is better and if your truth hurts their feelings then you must be somehow at fault.

  21. Roland Derksen says:

    There’s a chance we’ll see our first freezing temperature here on Saturday night since January 3rd. Hope it happens, because as of December 21st (the official start of winter) I’ve only counted 12 days here. If that number stays the same right to March 20 (the end of the season) it’ll be the fewest days with a freezing daily minimum for me since the winter of 1991-92- and that one was an El Nino winter!
    (that one had 12 also)

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Maybe the meteorologist got confused and did a typo on their charts and paperwork and this winter should have been a El Nino winter!!!!

      • Sprayandpay says:

        With climate manipulation going on and them not telling us who knows anymore. It’s back to 85F in southern California. They stopped spraying for one and a half month during Trump’s election time and Cali got it’s rain back in droves.

        Sometime in March 2017 the spraying continued and nary a drop fell since. Just recently a month ago spraying stopped for a few days and lol and behold more rain came in. Once the allotment was used up the chems came back and it’s to the deep fryer.

    • Oh We got Freezing, had a lot of ice right after a rain…ouch. turned our road in to a icerink.

  22. Paul D says:

    More bad news.

  23. Jason Hougak says:

    Last week of January was an awesome ski vacation with 3 day trip to Timberline overnight. Snow was the best of the season. Timberline hasn’t even broke the 90″ base mark. Work is crazy and I’m sure water well work will only get worse here in Oregon. Our water doesn’t grow on trees you know and eventually they’ll all be burned up. And we thought Wildfire season 2017 was bad…

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Last week of January was an awesome ski vacation with 3 day trip to Timberline overnight. Snow was the best of the season. Timberline hasn’t even broke the 90″ base mark. Work is crazy and I’m sure water well work will only get worse here in Oregon. Our water doesn’t grow on trees you know and eventually they’ll all be burned up. And we thought Wildfire season 2017 was bad…
      One thing about the % snowpack is our snowpack increases into April most locations so by the time we get into Spring those number will look horrible if March doesn’t roar like a lion. I’ll go for a long wet below normal spring & summer.

    • lurkyloo says:

      What do you mean by “worse” Jason? Does that mean that you’ll get more work or that it’ll be harder for you to tap in to an aquifer?

      • Sprayandpay says:

        What he means is in the coming years you’ll have to go deeper and deeper to get water if you run off of well water but you know everyone in Oregon lives in Portland right?

  24. Jack says:

    Fantastic. Love this weather.

  25. Let’s shoot for that death ridge after Valentine’s Day this year, Mark!

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