The Euro model says spring is already here and we’re jumping right into typical April conditions over the next few weeks.
The last time we saw a warmer/drier than average March was 8 years ago…in 2007. I suppose we are due.
An interesting ECMWF monthly run last night. It implies that we might see our warmest March in years.
There is one map for each of the next 4 weeks, showing 500 millibar height from all the ensemble members and the anomaly (colored areas). Warm colors mean higher than normal heights and cold the opposite.
Week 1: We already know what’s happening over the next week or so. Strong ridging now continues through Tuesday, then a system to our southwest kicks out over the top of us as ANOTHER ridge pops back up over us late next week.
Week 2: This takes us into the first part of Oregon’s Spring Break. Look at the ridging over Alaska and extending down into the western USA.
Week 3: The rest of Spring Break. Looks like ridging still hanging in tight, although slightly farther west and north. Maybe a bit cooler, but still drier than normal.
Week 4: Through the first week of April. Same pattern.
By the way, the GEM and GFS both agree through 15 days out…the farthest we can see on those models. They show the same ridging on Friday, the 20th of the month
More on the ski season a bit later…
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen