ECMWF Says Ridging Continues Through March

4pm Thursday…

The Euro model says spring is already here and we’re jumping right into typical April conditions over the next few weeks.

The last time we saw a warmer/drier than average March was 8 years ago…in 2007.  I suppose we are due.

An interesting ECMWF monthly run last night.  It implies that we might see our warmest March in years.

There is one map for each of the next 4 weeks, showing 500 millibar height from all the ensemble members and the anomaly (colored areas).  Warm colors mean higher than normal heights and cold the opposite.

Week 1:  We already know what’s happening over the next week or so.  Strong ridging now continues through Tuesday, then a system to our southwest kicks out over the top of us as ANOTHER ridge pops back up over us late next week.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2:  This takes us into the first part of Oregon’s Spring Break.  Look at the ridging over Alaska and extending down into the western USA.

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3:  The rest of Spring Break.  Looks like ridging still hanging in tight, although slightly farther west and north.  Maybe a bit cooler, but still drier than normal.

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4:  Through the first week of April.  Same pattern.

500za_week4_bg_NA

By the way, the GEM and GFS both agree through 15 days out…the farthest we can see on those models.  They show the same ridging on Friday, the 20th of the month

gem_fri_20 gfs_fri_20

More on the ski season a bit later…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to ECMWF Says Ridging Continues Through March

  1. Lee says:

    I wonder if the Arctic Warming has anything to do with this?
    A study s stating due to changes in the Arctic (Arctic warming) it is making the jet stream “Waiver” thus causing Fluctuation in the jet stream.

    Also another report is stating that parts of the Ocean’s Conveyor system (The Thermohaline circulation has slowed in areas and is effecting weather in areas as well as raising the ocean in areas.

  2. Garron near Washington square says:

    I noticed in the “science” section of today’s paper that the recurring droughts in California can be blamed on global warming according to Stanford U. Does anyone think that we may be experiencing our warmest weather due to the spread of Californians’ northward, and I hear they even have an In and Out burger joint now in Medford??? The next thing you know palm trees will be sprouting up in The Dalles…lol, Just sarcasm and having fun! I love all my non native neighbors from the south. But, I hear that the snow in Florida WAS actually caused by all the people moving south along the east coast to escape their dreadful winters’! Enjoy this weather and weekend.

  3. Purplehaze says:

    I’m believing Dan more and more about pollution from China amplifying our death ridge which in turn makes it more snowy back east as they get our storms due to the jet stream going north thru Canada/Yukon then dropping dead south over the Midwest/East Coast.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    The ski season of 2004-2005 had a rebound in the later half of March. I’m saying this year is worse, no hope in sight.
    ” I wonder if he’s using the same wind we are using?”
    ” he’s no concern of ours… sail on!”

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    And circumzenithal arc and a superlateral 🙂

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Here is another one showing the circumzenithal arc etc…

  7. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Wow! Never in my 17 years of photographing have I ever captured so many optical events at the same time!

    I may be incorrect in labeling some of these, but in this photo:

    Halo, Upper Tangent Arc, Upper Suncave Parry Arc, Parhelion and Parhelic

    In addition, there was a very bright circumzenithal arc today as well as a superlateral.

  8. Chris s says:

    I guess I would maybe ask what it is that the models keep seeing when for literally days if not a full week straight they show a pattern change, only to do a complete 180. It seems as though it’s happened way to many times this year. I realize models do tend to flip and flop a bit, but I have never seen it like this when they advertise something for quite a while then do the 180… What gives? What were they seeing that changed, and why does it keep happening so frequently now?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The ECMWF has been doing pretty well with very few of the ridiculous swings back and forth we see more often on the GFS. Another point: Often you’ll see an extreme solution on a model (remember the cold and almost snowy GFS a few days ago?). When I see that the first thing I do is look at all its ensembles to see if there is any support for that. In the case of a few days ago the very cold GFS was out there all by itself with its ensemble average temps much warmer. The ECMWF was much warmer as well. We have far more info available nowadays then in the old days (5-10 years ago) when we could only look at single model runs. Another example, from my posting 10 days ago, here’s the week 4 map: https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/500za_week4_bg_na4.png Compare that to the week 2 forecast now 10 days later. Upper level ridge is just to our northwest in both instances and 10 days later still no indication of a wet pattern.

  9. BoringOregon says:

    I’ll take that!

  10. Ski season? When was that this year? 🙂

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