4 Sunny Weekends? It Might Hit 70 This Time Too!

Wednesday 7pm…

Do you realize we are forecasting a 4th consecutive sunny weekend?  Amazing for late February and early March!

Starting with Valentine’s Day we have seen mostly sunny skies each weekend day. That’s due to nearly constant upper-level ridging hanging around near the West Coast over the past month.  During that time we’ve seen less than 1/2″ of rain!

With the increasing sun angle and day length, we’re getting more energy down here at the ground so that means warmer temps this weekend.  We may hit 70 either Saturday, Sunday, or Monday.  But it wouldn’t be a record because we’ve been even warmer in early March as mentioned in Monday’s post.  We don’t appear to get good offshore (easterly) flow over the weekend, which should keep high temperatures from reaching the 75 we saw back in 2005 despite the 850mb temps forecast to be about the same as 2005.  So to summarize…

THIS WEEKEND

  • Warmest we’ve seen so far this year
  • Good chance we touch 70 either Saturday or Sunday
  • Light wind continues, including in the Gorge
  • Overnight temperatures will gradually warm too

It’s very obvious that we have no rain, and hardly any clouds, on the way through Tuesday of next week.  We have some rain in our 7 Day forecast for Wednesday, but is that the beginning of “the big change”?  It doesn’t appear that way for now.  Models have been consistently backing off on cool and wet weather later next week and beyond.  Just 1-2 days ago the GFS models was giving us snow down around 2,000′ or even lower in the extended range.  As of today though all of our long-range models show some wet weather later next week but then a return to upper-level ridging of some sort after the 15th.  Take a look at the ECMWF & GFS 500mb height anomaly for 9 days from now…next Friday, the 13th:

ecm_fri

gfs_fri

Then a week later, Thursday the 19th.  Including the GEM too…this is just as Oregon’s Spring Break is about to kick in…

ecm_thu_19

gem_thu_19

gfs_thu_19

The all show either normal or above normal upper-level heights over the Pacific Northwest.  No sign of a big turnaround to a wet pattern.

So enjoy the unusually sunny early March weather…it might not happen for another 10 years!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

36 Responses to 4 Sunny Weekends? It Might Hit 70 This Time Too!

  1. It reminds me of March 1992 around my area.

  2. buffedman says:

    ENSO prediction models indicate warm neutral to borderline El Niño conditions during the February-April season in progress, continuing into northern spring 2015, with some suggestion of strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.

  3. What a change the GFS took in the last few days. Was showing maybe colder and wetter, but has since reverted back to above average. Looks like the carrot isn’t even there to chase anymore lol

  4. Sapo says:

    Pretty cloudy out right now, dang it…I’m getting spoiled :). Looking like just some high clouds though, they’ll probably mostly move off.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    Hard freeze 27-29F every night this week and unlimited sunshine.

  6. Tony says:

    Are we going to have a drought because we have no snow pack

  7. High Desert Mat says:

    I cant say I’ve ever had a “nice” sunburn. Thankfully I tan. The worst part of a burn is the……….itching in 4 days!!! Yuck

  8. moosieman says:

    A historically sunny warm winter/spring will be followed by??? Its the northwest, chill people…the snowpack isn’t coming but…it could rain most of the summer (1993). Enjoy it why you can because it always reverts back.

  9. schmit44 says:

    3/4/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 47 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: -7 at CROW FLAT (5172 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (53/5 ) (4360 ft )

  10. Got a nice sunburn today under 42-53 degree air temperatures!

    And a 35-degree diurnal swing today in The Dalles was nice too.

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    We need an omega stop to this omega block! More wells having problems due to diminishing groundwater supplies. Lower water tables cause more sand and sediment shutting of well production. Without snowpack to percolate and replenish out water tables then summer water supplies are gonna get low. But hey flowers are blooming, birds are chirping and yards are mowed, in a few months we’ll all be begging it to rain!
    Summer 2015 sun heat fire smoke smog … … …. enjoy it while it lasts!

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    Mark I hope this pattern doesn’t happen again. This better not be a 10 year occurrence. I’m praying 2025 is a strong La Niña to end this sh!t !!!

  13. oldwxwatcher says:

    Mowed my lawn today. Earliest in many years. But the most unusual thing about it is that the grass was dry. Dry grass in March? Or even April? A very rare occurrence for the Portland area..

  14. I don’t know about 10 years Mark. That is stretching it as far as the trends go recently.

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