3 Nice Days, then Very Wet!

Oregon’s Spring Break has begun and it looks glorious for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.  We’ll see slight warming over the weekend, then a warming overhead atmosphere combined with offshore flow and Monday will push temperatures up to the warmest we have seen so far this year.

MarkHeadlines_SpringBreak

The GFS, ECMWF, and WRF-GFS show temperatures just shy or at 70 degrees for a high Monday afternoon.  That wouldn’t be unusual because about every other year we hit 70 at some point in the month.  Maybe similar odds to hitting 98-100 degrees in July?  OR, maybe we’ll just top out at 68 as my current forecast shows.  Either way, try to take a sick day Monday to enjoy the warmth.  Because then we turn very wet.

All models are in strong agreement that we’ll be seeing several weather systems Tuesday through at least the following weekend.  The ECMWF shows rain beginning Monday night with no 12 hour period dry for the following 7 days!

salemrain

That graphic shows the actual rain accumulation in blue on the bottom chart and the ensemble average as green; note ensembles are quite close to the deterministic forecast.  The chart on the top shows each individual ensemble member’s rainfall accumulation.  By the way you’ll notice I use Salem instead of Portland since the terrain on the ECMWF seems to shove heavier Clark County foothills precipitation too far southwest into the metro area,  The GFS meteogram shows the same thing; this is the 00z run this evening:

gfs

Probably not such good graphics to use on TV eh?  Might be mildly confusing.

So enjoy the next 3 days, and then hunker down for lots of rain and some windy systems too.  It IS possible to have a weak windstorm this late in the season, but right now I don’t see any real deep lows close to the coast or strengthening as they approach.

On another note, our overnight temps should warm a bit the next two days.  There were record low temps in Pendleton, John Day, and Burns this morning.  12 in late March…that’s chilly!

PLOT_Lows_ORWA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

41 Responses to 3 Nice Days, then Very Wet!

  1. schmit44 says:

    3/24/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:80 at EW4053 Myrtle Po( 417 ft) & MT. YONCALLA(1822 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 53 at SIGNAL TREE(3294 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 12 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (70/14 ) (5000 ft )

  2. Rob - Southeast Portland says:

    For Willamette Valley-Portland/Vancouver metro area
    Convective Outlook for Tuesday

    Model run: 21z SREF
    LIFTED INDEX: -1
    SBCAPE: 250-350J/kg
    MUCAPE: 250-350J/kg
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7 to 7.5C/km
    0-6KM BULK SHEAR: 50-60kts
    EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR: 25-30kts
    PWAT: .50″ to .75″
    500MB TEMP: -28c
    EQ LEVEL TEMP: -20c to -22c
    12 HR CALIBRATED T-STORM PROBABILITY: 20-30%
    24 HR CALIBRATED T-STORM PROBABILITY: 30-40%

    00z WRF CAPE model 300J/kg with pockets up to 500.

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    70 degrees in Salem this afternoon. Probably the last time until April. March 2014 has been both warmer and wetter than normal. Kind of strange but we needed both the warmth and the wet. I imagine the farmers are happy right about now. Peace.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Sifton, beware the bent back occlusion! How about a couple Stray Albino Donkeys. Hahaah!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      232 PM PDT MON MAR 24 201

      THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION WHICH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAS ALSO FORMED A SURFACE LOW NEAR 40N/140W. THE CORE OF
      THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 50N WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY AND DRIVES THIS LOW NORTH AND EST OF THE AREA…ALLOWING A SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THROUGH. WITH IT COMES SOME WIND ALONG THE COAST…THOUGH BELOW WARNING LEVELS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST…THERE IS A
      BIT OF A BENT BACK OCCLUSION THAT STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR THE COAST…SO AFTER A PERIOD OF SOUTH WINDS…EXPECT SOME GUSTY S-SW WINDS IN THE
      AFTERNOON FOR THE COAST. THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER…WHICH WILL BRING SOUTH BREEZES TO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY AS
      WELL…THOUGH MOST MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE COUPLED WITH
      SOME CLOUD BREAKS. IN SPITE OF SKINNY CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS…WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -28 DEG C…LIFTED INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE…AND DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT…NO REASON TO DEVIATE
      FROM CURRENT FCST AND THE GENERAL THUNDER CHANCE FROM SPC…THUS POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

    • Sifton says:

      Thanks, but but bent back doesn’t concern me……..only Brokeback would!

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Looks like a big pile of volcanic ash to me. No bedrock. No wonder it collapsed.

  4. 69, 70 is a lock now. Also picking up a decent southerly wind.

  5. schmit44 says:

    WARM SEASON WEATHER CONTEST FOR PDX
    I have submitted my guesses. Entries close at noon tomorrow.
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/SPRING2014_CONTEST/add.php

  6. schmit44 says:

    3/23/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 46 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & EW3480 Ashland(2333 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 8 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (62/11 ) (4360 ft )

  7. AdamInAumsville says:

    Check out the radar. The birds are in full force tonight!

  8. David B. says:

    Looking good for breaking the monthly rainfall record for March up here, then.

  9. Jason Hougak says:

    Enjoyed a chilly spring morning yesterday smelt dipping in the Sandy River followed by lunch over looking the Columbia Gorge from the Womens Forum. After lunch we hiked Lauterell Falls loop and hiked below the upper waterfall. My daughter hiked the whole loop. The forest was lush with spring growth. Trilliums, wood sorrell, and corydallis. Afternoon was spent mowing lawn and edging. Late afternoon we hiked property and kids got soaked in our stream. Still too chilly to play in the water. Looking forward to fresh spring snow to run the ski season to late May at Timberline.

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    I’m most likely the biggest winter diehard on this blog. I never give up on snow. I just don’t see any lower elevation snow coming up but the cascades will pickup some for spring break! I know I have a chance for snow here well into April.

  11. Sapo says:

    GFS slowed down the precipitation arrival by about 6 hours…WRF-GFS doesn’t really have it arriving until 5 AM Tuesday, then a stronger surge of precipitation around 11 AM. Looking forward to a sunny Sunday and dry, warm Monday!

  12. schmit44 says:

    3/22/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & EW1735 Central P(1285 ft) & MEDFORD PORT #2(1858 ft)
    Low: 46 at EW3480 Ashland(2333 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:31 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 3 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (56/6 ) (5000 ft )
    Horse Ridge (US (54/4) (4160 ft)

  13. WEATHERDAN says:

    62 this afternoon after a low of 30. 12th day this month over 60. Normal in Salem in March is 10. So we are having a warm March so far. Our first day at or above may be Monday. I have noticed of late even the Winter weather diehards seem to have given up on more snow. Well next December is only 9 months away. In the meantime baseball is back and so is the nice weather. Since the mid 90,s our first 80 degree day usually arrives in April. So in about 4-6 weeks I would expect to see it 80 or warmer in Salem. So far we have had about double the frosts of 2012-2013. But we have had less sub 50 degree highs. It was all those frosty nights but mild days from mid December to early February that helped to make this past Winter so memorable. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat (Model Rider) Redmond Or says:

      Dan, how long have you lived in Salem? I lived there about 15years ago for about 6 months and that’s all I could take so I moved back to Portland. I hated it and so did my friends. I could list ten pages of reasons why I didn’t like it. I just don’t get that town.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Matt I was born in Salem in 1954 and have lived here all my life. I have traveled to almost every state and almost every part of Oregon and I wouldn’t live anywhere else. I usually travel to central Oregon once a year and it’s a nice place for a vacation. However I prefer the valley as a permanent residence. Last Summer I spent a weekend in August at the Malheur Caves Southeast of Burns. Again it was a nice visit but I was glad to be home. Nothing wrong with where you live Matt but I just prefer where I live. I can be in Portland to watch a concert at the Rose Garden in 45 minutes. I can be at the U of O in an hour to watch a game there. I can be at the coast in 75 minutes or in Central Oregon in 150 minutes in the Summertime. But I like where I live. Salem/Keizer is about 200,000 now, just the right size for me. Yes it would be nice if it was a little less rainy and a little less foggy but no place is perfect. It sounds like you like where you live so we are both happy. Peace.

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      Mat was born in Salem too!!! He is a closet Salem fan as well, kind of like his sexuality…

  14. Jason Hougak says:

    Past mornings are chilly 29.8F and currently 29.1F. Looks like Mark rebuilt the blog layout. Thanks mister now our writing width is alot longer than deep… Hahaha! 🙂

  15. Jason Hougak says:

    I won’t complain about 60’s at all! I know the 70’s and hotter will come. All I know is that the hotter and drier it gets, the more work on wells we’ve got. Arctic weather and heat waves are major busy times in the well pump business. Spring and fall have a consistent amount of work but nothing like the extremes! Come on March roar like the lion you are!

  16. W7ENK says:

    Really looking forward to that possible 70 on Monday!! 🙂

  17. schmit44 says:

    3/21/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 46 at Brookings (US 10(150 ft) & EW3480 Ashland(2333 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:22 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 5 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Lorella (57/13 ) (4160 ft )

  18. carnyfriday says:

    Love the zoo in the rain!

  19. Sifton says:

    I’ll take it!!

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