Oregon’s Spring Break has begun and it looks glorious for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. We’ll see slight warming over the weekend, then a warming overhead atmosphere combined with offshore flow and Monday will push temperatures up to the warmest we have seen so far this year.
The GFS, ECMWF, and WRF-GFS show temperatures just shy or at 70 degrees for a high Monday afternoon. That wouldn’t be unusual because about every other year we hit 70 at some point in the month. Maybe similar odds to hitting 98-100 degrees in July? OR, maybe we’ll just top out at 68 as my current forecast shows. Either way, try to take a sick day Monday to enjoy the warmth. Because then we turn very wet.
All models are in strong agreement that we’ll be seeing several weather systems Tuesday through at least the following weekend. The ECMWF shows rain beginning Monday night with no 12 hour period dry for the following 7 days!
That graphic shows the actual rain accumulation in blue on the bottom chart and the ensemble average as green; note ensembles are quite close to the deterministic forecast. The chart on the top shows each individual ensemble member’s rainfall accumulation. By the way you’ll notice I use Salem instead of Portland since the terrain on the ECMWF seems to shove heavier Clark County foothills precipitation too far southwest into the metro area, The GFS meteogram shows the same thing; this is the 00z run this evening:
Probably not such good graphics to use on TV eh? Might be mildly confusing.
So enjoy the next 3 days, and then hunker down for lots of rain and some windy systems too. It IS possible to have a weak windstorm this late in the season, but right now I don’t see any real deep lows close to the coast or strengthening as they approach.
On another note, our overnight temps should warm a bit the next two days. There were record low temps in Pendleton, John Day, and Burns this morning. 12 in late March…that’s chilly!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
3/24/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:80 at EW4053 Myrtle Po( 417 ft) & MT. YONCALLA(1822 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
Low: 53 at SIGNAL TREE(3294 ft)
Coldest:
High:42 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 12 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
FOSTER FLAT (70/14 ) (5000 ft )
For Willamette Valley-Portland/Vancouver metro area
Convective Outlook for Tuesday
Model run: 21z SREF
LIFTED INDEX: -1
SBCAPE: 250-350J/kg
MUCAPE: 250-350J/kg
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7 to 7.5C/km
0-6KM BULK SHEAR: 50-60kts
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR: 25-30kts
PWAT: .50″ to .75″
500MB TEMP: -28c
EQ LEVEL TEMP: -20c to -22c
12 HR CALIBRATED T-STORM PROBABILITY: 20-30%
24 HR CALIBRATED T-STORM PROBABILITY: 30-40%
00z WRF CAPE model 300J/kg with pockets up to 500.
70 degrees in Salem this afternoon. Probably the last time until April. March 2014 has been both warmer and wetter than normal. Kind of strange but we needed both the warmth and the wet. I imagine the farmers are happy right about now. Peace.
atmospheric river approaching PNW
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/TPW_Animation.html?product=EAST_PACIFIC_TPW
Sifton, beware the bent back occlusion! How about a couple Stray Albino Donkeys. Hahaah!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
232 PM PDT MON MAR 24 201
THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION WHICH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAS ALSO FORMED A SURFACE LOW NEAR 40N/140W. THE CORE OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 50N WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUESDAY AND DRIVES THIS LOW NORTH AND EST OF THE AREA…ALLOWING A SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THROUGH. WITH IT COMES SOME WIND ALONG THE COAST…THOUGH BELOW WARNING LEVELS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST…THERE IS A
BIT OF A BENT BACK OCCLUSION THAT STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR THE COAST…SO AFTER A PERIOD OF SOUTH WINDS…EXPECT SOME GUSTY S-SW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE COAST. THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER…WHICH WILL BRING SOUTH BREEZES TO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY AS
WELL…THOUGH MOST MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE COUPLED WITH
SOME CLOUD BREAKS. IN SPITE OF SKINNY CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS…WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -28 DEG C…LIFTED INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE…AND DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT…NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM CURRENT FCST AND THE GENERAL THUNDER CHANCE FROM SPC…THUS POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.
Thanks, but but bent back doesn’t concern me……..only Brokeback would!
If you live here, you know you may be washed away!
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-meteorological-background-for.html
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hQRKvlXEuUc/UzB1-OEyaHI/AAAAAAAAZxs/poYon5PELZ8/s1600/wall.tiff
Looks like a big pile of volcanic ash to me. No bedrock. No wonder it collapsed.
69, 70 is a lock now. Also picking up a decent southerly wind.
WARM SEASON WEATHER CONTEST FOR PDX
I have submitted my guesses. Entries close at noon tomorrow.
http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/SPRING2014_CONTEST/add.php
3/23/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:72 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
Low: 46 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & EW3480 Ashland(2333 ft)
Coldest:
High:31 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 8 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
CHRISTMAS VALLEY (62/11 ) (4360 ft )
Check out the radar. The birds are in full force tonight!
Looking good for breaking the monthly rainfall record for March up here, then.
Enjoyed a chilly spring morning yesterday smelt dipping in the Sandy River followed by lunch over looking the Columbia Gorge from the Womens Forum. After lunch we hiked Lauterell Falls loop and hiked below the upper waterfall. My daughter hiked the whole loop. The forest was lush with spring growth. Trilliums, wood sorrell, and corydallis. Afternoon was spent mowing lawn and edging. Late afternoon we hiked property and kids got soaked in our stream. Still too chilly to play in the water. Looking forward to fresh spring snow to run the ski season to late May at Timberline.
I’m most likely the biggest winter diehard on this blog. I never give up on snow. I just don’t see any lower elevation snow coming up but the cascades will pickup some for spring break! I know I have a chance for snow here well into April.
Dude, It’s over. The valley floor won’t see another flake until next Fall.
Mike I live at 1300 feet and have had 4 inches of snow in the middle of April 2007 so I’ll never doubt it can happen up here. As for the low country I’d say yes.
Tell you what I wish was over.
All pop-up comments by Mike, suddenly granting us his superior knowledge of the coming weather!
Dude, take a long walk off a short pier!
Poose!?! What is up wit U?!? I like snow too but it’s over,……it’s over Johnie!!
The ensembles say snow chances are over. My comment was based on supporting evidence and not a guess.
And Pappoose should go jump off the pier first. No wonder why I hadn’t posted here in a long time. Because of rude comments like yours Pappoose. Have a nice day.
I hope your lack of posting habits continues, Mike.
You have obviously lost your sense of direction, Mike.
Please continue down the short pier.
Huh? My lack of posting is because I’ve been busy taking care of my Dad following a large stroke he suffered. Thanks for being a jerk 😦
I’m very sorry mike, been there done that, please accept my apology.
Obviously you’ve never met Mike. The guy is a class act. Grow up poose.
Clearly a good idea marinersfan, growing up is hard to do. I’ll give the growing up a shot!
Whoa… WTF?!? O_O
What do you think might be going on here, W7?
Well, since this is completely out of character for you, I can’t help but wonder if your WordPress account hasn’t been hacked? That’s what I initially thought might be going on.
Probably not, but still…
GFS slowed down the precipitation arrival by about 6 hours…WRF-GFS doesn’t really have it arriving until 5 AM Tuesday, then a stronger surge of precipitation around 11 AM. Looking forward to a sunny Sunday and dry, warm Monday!
3/22/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:70 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & EW1735 Central P(1285 ft) & MEDFORD PORT #2(1858 ft)
Low: 46 at EW3480 Ashland(2333 ft)
Coldest:
High:31 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 3 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 50 degrees
FOSTER FLAT (56/6 ) (5000 ft )
Horse Ridge (US (54/4) (4160 ft)
62 this afternoon after a low of 30. 12th day this month over 60. Normal in Salem in March is 10. So we are having a warm March so far. Our first day at or above may be Monday. I have noticed of late even the Winter weather diehards seem to have given up on more snow. Well next December is only 9 months away. In the meantime baseball is back and so is the nice weather. Since the mid 90,s our first 80 degree day usually arrives in April. So in about 4-6 weeks I would expect to see it 80 or warmer in Salem. So far we have had about double the frosts of 2012-2013. But we have had less sub 50 degree highs. It was all those frosty nights but mild days from mid December to early February that helped to make this past Winter so memorable. Peace.
Dan, how long have you lived in Salem? I lived there about 15years ago for about 6 months and that’s all I could take so I moved back to Portland. I hated it and so did my friends. I could list ten pages of reasons why I didn’t like it. I just don’t get that town.
Matt I was born in Salem in 1954 and have lived here all my life. I have traveled to almost every state and almost every part of Oregon and I wouldn’t live anywhere else. I usually travel to central Oregon once a year and it’s a nice place for a vacation. However I prefer the valley as a permanent residence. Last Summer I spent a weekend in August at the Malheur Caves Southeast of Burns. Again it was a nice visit but I was glad to be home. Nothing wrong with where you live Matt but I just prefer where I live. I can be in Portland to watch a concert at the Rose Garden in 45 minutes. I can be at the U of O in an hour to watch a game there. I can be at the coast in 75 minutes or in Central Oregon in 150 minutes in the Summertime. But I like where I live. Salem/Keizer is about 200,000 now, just the right size for me. Yes it would be nice if it was a little less rainy and a little less foggy but no place is perfect. It sounds like you like where you live so we are both happy. Peace.
Mat was born in Salem too!!! He is a closet Salem fan as well, kind of like his sexuality…
Past mornings are chilly 29.8F and currently 29.1F. Looks like Mark rebuilt the blog layout. Thanks mister now our writing width is alot longer than deep… Hahaha! 🙂
I won’t complain about 60’s at all! I know the 70’s and hotter will come. All I know is that the hotter and drier it gets, the more work on wells we’ve got. Arctic weather and heat waves are major busy times in the well pump business. Spring and fall have a consistent amount of work but nothing like the extremes! Come on March roar like the lion you are!
Really looking forward to that possible 70 on Monday!! 🙂
3/21/2014 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:64 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
Low: 46 at Brookings (US 10(150 ft) & EW3480 Ashland(2333 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft)
Coldest:
High:22 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 5 at Horse Ridge (US (4160 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
Lorella (57/13 ) (4160 ft )
Love the zoo in the rain!
I’ll take it!!