A Windy and Rainy Night

March 5, 2014

Lots of rain today, in fact as of 10pm Portland has seen record rain for the day…1.16″ and counting.  Here are some other totals:

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

Luckily not enough to cause anything other than localized flooding.

The wind has picked up too with gusts around 30 mph in the western valleys.  Strongest wind will be around daybreak or just beyond both at the Coast and in the Valleys.

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys2

MarkWarnings_Wind_Coast_Valleys

Once we get past midday, the showers and wind will calm down dramatically west of the Cascades.

There are strong hints of more mild early spring weather on the maps.  The ECMWF and GFS have slowed down the arrival of precipitation for Saturday now.  To at least 4pm or even later.  If so, we have two very nice days coming up Friday and Saturday…maybe time for me to clean up the mess on the driveway left by Sunday’s ice storm.

Next week is looking mild as well as some sort of upper ridge develops along the West Coast.   Whether it will allow a system through the middle of next week for rain is up in the air.  But the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM all show mild conditions through about 10 days.  You can see the 12z ECMWF only had about .30″ in Salem from late Sunday through the following 6 days.

imageControl

And lots of days in the 55-65 degree range.

Then take a look:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

models are indicating the ridging pushing much farther west after that time for a cool pattern again starting around the 17th.  You can see it on the 00z GFS ensemble chart.  The red line is the ensemble average; it plunges from around +7 on the 16th to -3 a few days later.  The operational run (blue) is likely too cold, but all the main models show the same cooling in the 3rd week of the month.  So enjoy the mild weather the next 7-10 days because then it’ll probably turn cooler again.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen