11pm: Looks Snowier For Metro Area

I think there is a good chance now that widespread snow will fall in the metro area tomorrow afternoon.  If so, it could be a mess since it’ll be dry in the morning and most schools/businesses will be in session.  We sure don’t need an Atlanta repeat in Portland tomorrow evening, so please think carefully before you head out in the morning.

The big story this evening is that models have shifted farther north with the precipitation and the evening ECMWF model (what I was really waiting for) still runs a ton of moisture with a surface low directly into northwest Oregon.  That gives me enough confidence to say we’ll have our first widespread snow event in the metro area since December 2008.  Here’s what I used at 10pm:

MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages

 

MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages

Here is our latest RPM model snow forecast:

RPM_SNOWACCUM

 

I don’t have graphics showing how much the ECMWF model gives us snowfall-wise, but it appears to be enough for 3-5″ possibly.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

128 Responses to 11pm: Looks Snowier For Metro Area

  1. Cyndie Stockburger says:

    19 miles east of Salem we are sporting 6-7 inches with continuing snow showers.

  2. crazyhorse says:

    Too much east wind for snow in Portland

  3. Curtis C says:

    12z GFS insists on hitting the south valley hard this afternoon and evening. I think everyone will pick up at least 3 inches from PDX to Eugene.

  4. venersborg Jay says:

    Snowing hard in Venersborg (E of Battle Ground) @ 1100ft. ground is cover after only 20 min! Time to get the sleds waxed up…

  5. boringlarry SE of Sandy1600 ft says:

    flakes and ice needles
    sideways stingers flying hard
    February joy

  6. Taylor says:

    Temperature actually dropped here to a new low of 19 degrees here in Clackamas. Haven’t seen any snow falling yet.

  7. W7ENK says:

    20 car pileup due to snow and slick roads,
    I-5 SB at Albany.

    I-5 is closed.

  8. tracey says:

    Steady blowing snow and 18 degrees on Prune Hill in Camas

  9. Drew says:

    So far a whole lot of nothing going on in King City / Tigard area.

  10. Eugene Dave says:

    Moderate snow now in Eugene. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t cancel school. I can easily picture them canceling school in a couple of hours and thousands of parents without a snow vehicle trying to pick up their kids. Could be interesting.

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      Albany and Corvallis just canceled theirs, is proving interesting.

    • Curtis C says:

      I think today we will be on the low end snow wise. Im thinking 2-4 inches by midnight. It should pick up in the afternoon. Tomorrow is the interesting one. We’re gonna get a bunch of something: snow, freezing rain or just plain rain.

  11. MasterNate says:

    I5 closed at mp 227 due to crash

  12. snowlover says:

    Snowing in Gresham now! I can’t believe it’s happening so early! Bring it on!

  13. paulbeugene says:

    Thursday morning:

    Heaviest snow definitely Corvallis-Albany N to PDX today.

    Only very light snow falling here in Eugene. Snow may pick up later this afternoon down here but am thinking less than 2 inches for S end of Willamette Valley.

    SLE-PDX should have no problem getting 3-6 inch amounts.

    As for tomorrow, models seem to moderate layer above for S valley so that we may get freezing rain, but my hunch is that the best precip for S valley will be tomorrow, and question at this point is snow vs. ice vs. early switchover to plain rain.

    May well have been a good call to keep Eugene schools open today.

  14. Tim hostetler says:

    Just starting to snow here at St John and Sr 500 at my place in Vancouver

  15. dharmabum says:

    Light snow starting to fall here in the Barton area near the Clackamas River. Suprise, suprise!!!!!!!!

  16. Eastman(Parkrose/NE Portland) says:

    Snow flurries N portland!

  17. alohabb says:

    Sleet/graupel falling lightly in Hillsboro

  18. alohabb says:

    The commute will be a nightmare !!!’

  19. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    WHOLLY!!!! *****!!!! Look who joined the party…the WRF finally caught up!!!

  20. DEL X V says:

    Snow and blowing snow near Depoe Bay, central Oregon coast. Weather at Newporr must be near blizzard conditions,,,23 degrees and 35 mph wind gusts…

  21. boydo3 N Albany says:

    19 deg. Snowing hard.
    This cam is a couple miles east of me..
    http://www.tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/NorthAlbany_pid1489.jpg?1391674187

  22. maryinsellwood says:

    I’m really liking this NWS’s seven day forecast. How dependable is this? Any thoughts? (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1#.UvOxefldV8E)

    I too enjoy the enthusiasm of this group and will be peaking in often today. Thanks folks!

  23. Ryan says:

    12Z model updates???

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Bullseye on Portland, salem, Albany.

    • AdamInAumsville says:

      Yup.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Also, has another wave coming in tomorrow night around 4 which looks like another 4-5 inches through Saturday morning…ohhhhhh yeahhhhhh

    • Curtis C says:

      Portland looks good, doesn’t moderate until late on Saturday. Salem looks to be morning Saturday and Eugene looks to be sometime late on Friday or early Saturday. Also models typically tend to overestimate scouring out the cold air.

  24. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Is any of the moisture gonna lift north? Looks like virga up here

  25. Bagelpdx says:

    Any thoughts on what this might mean for flight out of PDX tomorrow? Just dry snow that they can fly right through, or delays/cancellations?

  26. Max in Fairview says:

    Very light snow starting here

  27. Independence says:

    It’s snowing like crazy in Independence!!!

  28. snowlover says:

    So excited! I’m going to be checking this blog all day! I don’t know anything about maps and don’t understand half of the things you all say…but I love reading the enthusiasm here!

  29. JohnD says:

    Right there with you. We live in inner SWPDX (Lair
    Hill.) I drive daily to my job in NOPO. The closest
    MAX is a 1/2 hour walk–both from our condo to the
    MAX and from the MAX in NOPO to my job. I love urban
    hiking anyway and doing the MAX is going to be GREAT
    today–camera in hand! Just not going to fight chains
    and traffic this time!

  30. W7ENK says:

    I wore my hiking/work boots and brought my snow pants to the office this morning. I fully expect traffic in the metro area to be gridlocked by 3:30 this afternoon and I’ll be walking the 8 miles home from downtown. I can do it in 1:45 when the weather is nice. I figure 2 to 2-1/2 hours in the snow sounds about right. Just enough to make me not want any more until next year. 😆

    • MasterNate says:

      How’s your garden doing? Anything peeking yet?;)

    • W7ENK says:

      Nothing yet. I mulched all my leaves and corn stalk and spread them in the garden bed back in late October. I will probably plant a few things in another couple of weeks, try to get a slight edge on the growing season once this cold air is gone. I did notice a couple small strawberry sprouts poking up over the weekend, actually.

      I had a bit of a sunflower seed incident, I’m hoping that doesn’t create too much of an issue come spring. 😕

  31. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Schools are closing across the valley. 4-8 inches sounds good! 22 and dusting here so far…

  32. Brad says:

    Radar filling in a bit from east to west.

  33. Jason Hougak says:

    Radar quickly filling in!!!!

  34. paulbeugene says:

    Light snow here near U of O in Eugene, streets turning white.

    Best accumulations this morning have been in Corvallis-Albany thus far. Eugene will probably lag in terms of snow amounts compared to places in central valley but best snow for S valley may be this afternoon.

    Best guess for day today through 8pm:

    Corvallis 6-8″
    Albany 5-7″
    Salem 5-7″
    Eugene 3-5″
    PDX 2-3″

    • Curtis C says:

      Tomorrow should be the real winner for the south valley. When do you think Eugene will moderate and switch over? Im not thinking until Saturday morning.

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