Snow Tonight? Very Unlikely

February 3, 2014

The flurries earlier today were exciting; at my home it was the first time I’d seen snow in the air in two months!  That’s a little weird to go from early December to early February at 1,000′ and not see any snow even in the air.  And it looks  like that might be all we see overnight and tomorrow morning.

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If you are looking for a snow day tomorrow, I doubt it’ll happen.  Although with some wet roads and a dusting here or there maybe some of you can squeeze out a 2 hour delay?

Tuesday the cold arctic air starts pouring into the Portland metro area through the Gorge and right over the Cascades as well.  Take a look at the forecast for Tuesday (and Wednesday too) in the Cascades…extremely cold with temperatures plunging to around zero above 5,000′ and staying there through Thursday morning.  The reason for the extreme cold is the arctic air pooling up on the east side of the Cascades.

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Combine that with gusty northeast wind and windchill temps for skiers will be down around -10 to -20.  Have everything covered if you are skiing the next two days!

Down here in the lowlands the exact temperature forecast is a little tricky.  Our RPM and MOS show high temps between 39 and 42 tomorrow and then about 30 Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet the UW’s model, which has done quite well in the past, shows 32/22/25 for high temps in the metro area the next 3 days.  We’ll see.  We have gone a bit in the middle with 36 tomorrow and 28 the following two days.

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Stay warm tomorrow and Wednesday with the gusty east wind and cold temps!

Looking ahead, the setup still appears to be perfect if you want some Saturday snow to play in.  The ECMWF is a bit faster with snow arrival right around daybreak Saturday.  The GFS model is noticeably slower and not quite as wet.  We’ll see, it’s still 4-5 days away.

In case you’re worried it’s the beginning of a long snowy/icy period?  Don’t, we’re headed into a mild and wet pattern.  In fact it looks wetter than anything we’ve seen in quite a while; so finally a bunch of snow for the mountains next week!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


ECMWF Monthly Run

February 3, 2014

Just checked out last night’s ECMWF run.  It goes out to one month and I see (and share) the weekly upper-level height maps.  Consistent with the maps from Thursday’s run, showing the wet pattern next week, then some sort of ridging the 2nd half of February.  Wouldn’t that be nice to have some warm weather a week or so after the cold spell?  We’ll see.

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