Storm #2 Ends: 11pm Update

February 7, 2014

Our models have not been doing well, our RPM has been particularly useless, so has the NAM.  That ECMWF is doing quite a bit better so I’m following it again.  That means one more round of snow/ice later tomorrow afternoon and evening.  This time we get a warmer nose of air up around 2,000′ which means many more areas west of the Cascades could get some thick ice accumulation from freezing rain.

THE HIGHLIGHTS:

  • This round of storms is probably the biggest for snow depth in the central/south Willamette Valley since the big 1968-1969 winter.  Many spots from Albany to Eugene have 10, 12, or even 18″ of snow on the ground!
  • Snow has pretty much ended with storm #2, snow showers will continue in the far eastern suburbs and west slopes of the Cascades through the night though
  • Mainly dry Saturday morning through midday
  • Snow and ice pellets/freezing rain arrives mid afternoon and continues through the evening
  • Salem to Eugene will likely be mostly freezing rain…a pretty decent ice storm is on the way for the top of your building snowpack!
  • Freezing rain also seems most likely in the south and southeast parts of the metro area.  Molalla, Canby, Wilsonville, Colton, Estacada are some examples
  • Temperatures will get close to freezing tomorrow, but then fall back to upper 20s or 30 tomorrow night.

MarkSnow_PortlandOutlookPercentages

Sunday will see gradual improvement with temperatures rising into the mid 30s.  Then the big warming comes Sunday night as a gusty southerly wind arrives in the Willamette Valley.  The Columbia River Gorge will remain frozen through Monday morning.

There is one other way this cold weather is historic.  The high temperature yesterday was 23 in Portland.  Sure, that seems really cold right?  But far colder than I thought.  In Portland there has never been a day in February beyond the 5th where the high temperature didn’t at least hit 30 degrees.  We totally blew away that number yesterday…and today.  Basically it’s pretty much unheard of to not make it to right around freezing any day this time of year.  There was ONE day in early March 1960 where the high was 29 degrees, but that’s it.  That was also a situation with heavy snow and gusty east wind.

Time to head home; roads look empty so a good time to go.  Back at it for round #3 tomorrow afternoon.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


Snow Totals: 3:30pm Friday

February 7, 2014

Time to tell us how much snow you have.  We need three things…

1. Location (City or area)

2. NEW SNOW TODAY ONLY

3. How much you have on the ground now

 

Leave all other discussion on previous posts.


Storm #2 Moving In Ahead of Schedule: 11am Update

February 7, 2014

Ah, a lovely night at the local hotel.  A quick trip for gas and now back at work.  Snow storm #2 is running ahead of schedule.  Here are the highlights:

WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MarkWarnings_Winter Wx Advisory

  • Snow has already spread north of Salem, most of the metro area will be getting fresh snow by 1pm.
  • Most roads in the metro area are still snow-covered, a few are slushy in the wheel tracks but that’s about it.  Snow will cover all roads again as we go through the afternoon since temperatures will remain below freezing.
  • 3-6″ is likely from the north Coast to Portland and into the Gorge, possibly more in localized spots.  Snow will mix with freezing rain south of Salem this afternoon, ice pellets (sleet) possible down there too.  The heaviest precipitation will be in the south valley today…what a mess.
  • This means many areas from Salem to east Portland will have MORE snow today than yesterday.  Have fun kids!!!
  • 1-3″ on the central Coast with freezing rain mixed in as well.
  • East wind will pick up a bit again, but closer to the Gorge this time.  Gusts 30-40 mph will cause blowing and drifting out east of I-205.
  • Blizzard conditions will develop in the Columbia River Gorge this afternoon/evening assuming we get 4″ or so out there.
  • Snow tapers off late tonight

The ECMWF model has done very well again, showing a 2nd very moist system moving in over us today.  Unfortunately it also sends another surge of moisture for more snow and/or freezing rain very late Saturday or Saturday night.  It would still be cold enough for snow or freezing rain at that point in the metro area.  We’ll take a closer look at tomorrow once we get through this afternoon’s storm.

Here is a real nice map of snow totals from the Thursday storm.   Thanks to the National Weather Service #hardworkinggovernmentemployeeswethankyou

Feb_6_Snow_NWS

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen