Nice Weekend Ahead

Looks like a perfect early July weekend ahead.

Ridge of high pressure still centered well to our east this evening (Utah/Colorado).  Southwesterly flow between it and a trough way offshore sent a disturbance up across Oregon today.  Nice series of storms developed mainly in the Central Cascades and then again over far eastern Oregon where they are still in progress as of 8pm.

Lack of onshore flow for one day really allowed the temp to spike today.  91 at PDX gives us our 5th day above 90 already by June 30th.  In an average summer we could expect 10 90+ days from July-September.  So it’ll be interesting to see if this is a taste of the rest of summer, or just an unusually warm start.

Onshore flow is up quite a bit this evening as gradients from OTH-PDX and PDX-DLS are quite a bit stronger than Thursday evening.  This should push our temps back down 3-6 degrees tomorrow.  At least that’s the FIRST LIVE LOCAL forecast plan for now. 

As for thunderstorms, I don’t see a good trigger to give us storms anywhere west of the Cascades this weekend.  One disturbance may come through Sunday afternoon, but it’s quite similar to today’s.  I expect storms will remain over the Cascades each afternoon in south or southwesterly upper-level flow.

ALL models have a cooldown by the middle of next week.  I see that last 2 GFS runs have a sharp shortwave trough and at least a few showers Thursday/Friday.  We could use a bit of rain since it’s been 2 weeks dry at PDX.

Enjoy the long weekend…I know some of you have a 4 day weekend planned!  Mark Nelsen

125 Responses to Nice Weekend Ahead

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Hey I can still post here, somebody else look at this and post already because its still open! haha

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Why the heck are comments closed, well back to the old June 30th blog retreat, but doubt anybody else remembers… πŸ™‚

  3. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://weathergeeks.spaces.live.com/
    Hey, this is a good forecast huh.. Did my comment get deleted? If so thats fine, I only used this so I could chat with loyal posters who don’t cause problems.

  4. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Mark opened comments so I guess we will leave this for now, but if we are ever blocked for a time again, we should return to this thread. Until then..

  5. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    As of 9:05 I’m down to 33.1. 30 min ago I was at 36. Humidity 66%, dp 23.
    Tyler

  6. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Suddenly 39.4 and dropping quick. I would rather wake up to 26 and winds gusting to 45mph than hit 19 or something but I would take either. lol

  7. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Gradient at 3.6mb now and increasing. Temp down to 34 at the dalles now, I am still running 6 degrees behind them. So lets hope they get especially cold so we keep dropping. I am still thinking they get down to at least 18-22. Is that agreeable? If so we should still fall to 24-28. Hope so!

  8. Derek-West Gresham says:

    40.1. Nice to see that I am about to dip into the thirties, but with a light east wind, just strong enough to keep the temp up.

  9. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    My east wind here has very slightly increased up to about 25mph. Holding between 40.8 to 42.2 the last 3 hours.

  10. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    36 even at my house right now. No wind still, the humidity is up to 59% with a dp of 23.
    Temp has dropped about 2 degrees since 8.
    Tyler

  11. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    Gradient 3.2ish MB increasing slowly. I will more than likely be updating this every hour with my thoughts, and wind reports from various observations/locations all night Lol.

  12. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    Yeah I agree.. I keep looking out my window to the southeast looking for CU building up and t-storms Lmao Ok not really.

  13. Jesse says:

    Well, I’m going to have dinner at a friends house. I should be back on around 10pm or so. Hopefully I will be down in the 20s by then with NO east winds, lol. But we’ll see. Also hopefully Mark will have a new blog posted we can comment on. It doesn’t feel right posting stuff about 20 degree temperatures the June 30th blog, lol.
    Down to 36.3. Peace.

  14. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Makes sense, winds build all night. So it will really be ripping tomorrow morning. Maybe we make it to like 34 or so, hopefully lower, but with 45-50mph winds it will feel like about 0. πŸ™‚
    BTW I still can’t believe I figured this out and we are doing this. LOL

  15. Jesse says:

    I wouldn’t mind insanely strong east winds tomorrow, that would allow for a cold night and keep tomorrows highs down. I really hope the east winds hold off till morning for most of us though.

  16. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    Wronga Shelby showed the insanely long east wind arrows after 7:00 AM Lol…

  17. Derek-West Gresham says:

    When are these gusts supposed to occur. Like at 2Am or something or ??

  18. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    Both KATU and KGW said 20-40mph higher gusts. Every single time I can remember they forecasted east winds in that area we would end up with 50-65mph obviously Corbett, Larch Mtn.(Washington) would be at the extreme end. As far as the ‘thermal trough’ that’s what the NWS says Lol

  19. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I still don’t know for sure whats going to happen. But it does seem as the airmass to the east of the cascades gets colder its going to try to find that gap known as the columbia river gorge. Probably east winds will spread to the spots prone to them. Gusts to 35mph seem possible. Gradient holding steady at 3.3mb right now.

  20. Jesse says:

    I haven’t heard any thing about a low building up our coast. I thought this east wind was basically a response of the depth of the Canadian High Pressure out over the Columbia Basin. But hey, you’re the east wind guy πŸ™‚

  21. Derek-West Gresham says:

    If I had dead calm winds for two hours I would hit 25, thats how dry this airmass is. But that probably won’t happen. If your east winds don’t kick up-in fact anywhere where it stays calm all night will probably fall to 15-22 or so. Get ready for a bone chiller out there. As for where the east winds keep going, hopefully when its 20 in the dalles tomorrow that cold air will drop us below freezing. It should, and it will feel bitterly cold. Tomorrow night assuming it stays clear will be the coldest night for all of us. Low twenties at best. lol Well the airport stands a good bet of breaking the record or getting pretty close. Rob, what exactly did the east wind forecast that KATU showed have on it again, time frame, etc.

  22. Jesse says:

    36.9 now, dewpoint holding steady around 22.5, a couple light breezes from the east about every five minutes.

  23. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    Well there’s going to be a ‘thermal trough’ building up the coast and with the very cold air in the columbia basin in response to high pressure building in and strengthening I expect the winds to increase rather dramatically late tonight lasting through Halloween.

  24. Jesse says:

    I think it was Ryan who was mentioning that the MRF model keeps throwing a snowstorm our way November 9-11. I know it is way out in lala land but the last couple runs of the GFS begin bringing a really cold arctic trough over us by next Wednesday the 8th with Northerly flow. If it is showing this and models are still in sync 3 or 4 days from now this may bear watching. I can see it now, “The Great Veteran’s Day Blizzard of ’06”! hahaha.

  25. Jesse says:

    That’s a good sign Derek since you’re out near Troutdale, Portland may be on the way to a record low even if winds calm for just a couple hours.

  26. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Nevermind, wind started blowing a little and the temp rose a little.

  27. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Actually almost no wind here now, perhaps explaining my temperature drop.

  28. Derek-West Gresham says:

    41.0 and a sudden massive tanking of my temp.

  29. Jesse says:

    I’m really hoping the winds let up. They may get in the way of what could be a record cold night in many locations. Any sign of the wind letting up Rob? I was out in Corbett and Larch mountain today and it was just a light breeze.

  30. Droppin(Rob)-Southeast Portland says:

    I just checked the gradient is up to 3MB now and increasing. 41.5 here with a 15-25mph east wind.

  31. Jesse says:

    Wow, my dewpoint is down to 22.5 now and winds have been completely calm for about the past five minutes. Down to 37.2 as of 7pm. 12 or 13 more hours of cooling to go!

  32. Jesse says:

    I also see no reason why tomorrow night won’t be just as cold as tonight. Tomorrow may even be slightly colder than today with the colder start tomorrow morning compared to this morning.
    I’m hoping that it will at least fall below 31 at PDX , if so, we will break a record for coldest Hallween morning temp since records have been kept there (1941).

  33. Jesse says:

    It is 37.5 here now Derek, with a stray E. wind gust that mainly just lowers the dewpoint and doesn’t really last long enough to change the temp. I may have a shot at the teens tonight if that wind stays away.

  34. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Gradient is slackening slightly. I wonder what will happen in the coming hours. Any other updates anybody?

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