Not a huge surprise, but here are the numbers NCDC just released for the month of May:
Notice it just got colder and colder the closer you got to the Rockies and then the Pacific Northwest. Some parts of the Eastern Oregon and SE Washington had their coldest May on record, including stations at Pendleton, Goldendale, and, well, somewhere else but now I forget where and don’t want to have to look it up again.
Here is the 3 month temp ranking for March-May:
Same pattern with a cold West and warmer than average East. Note it was the 3rd & 5th coldest spring on record for Washington and Oregon. You can also see why there have been such runoff problems in the Columbia, Snake, and Missouri River basins. A long cold spring delayed the snowmelt and there has been regular rainfall in the dry areas of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas due to the disturbances tracking northeast out of our west coast upper level trough. It was another month of below average 500 mb heights centered on the Pacific Northwest coastline too:
This is a pattern that has continued to sit overhead since mid February. We’ll see how much longer it continues, however notice we’ve dried out significantly this month…it’s no June like last year!
Looking ahead, I’m afraid that JUNEUARY word is going to start popping up next week. Models show an upper level trough dropping in over us the 2nd half of next week. ECMWF had the trough slightly farther east, but GFS brings it almost right over us, keeping the onshore flow and cooler than average temps going.
Enjoy the dry weekend!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
Hi everyone! I haven’t been on the blog for awhile, but I thought I’d check-in and see what the latest is.
I do have a question for those of you that understand weather better than me. At what point do we know what the upcoming winter is going to be as far as La Nina’s, El Nino’s, etc.? And I have already forgotten what last winter was, lol.
It’s been nice to see a bit more sunshine lately, and hopefully it only increases, although I don’t want the 90’s! I hope everyone is doing well! Thanks for any answers!
Traci
La Nina is dead…at least for now. We’re in ENSO neutral conditions and are expected to stay that way for a few months. Seems like CPC’s models are tilting toward a neutral or weak La Nina winter coming up.
Rod Hill’s 7 day forecast.
http://rodhillforecast.com/weather/portland-metro-7day.html
Lets do the time warp! Very cool and interesting.
Clocks in Sicily Mysteriously Jump Ahead
For over a week, the digital clocks in Catania have been perplexing owners by skipping ahead 15 to 20 minutes every day.
The inexplicable time changes caught the attention of two computer technicians in Sicily, who turned to Facebook to confirm the phenomenon.
Posing a question to ask if their friends and colleagues had noticed anything amiss with their clocks and radios established a definite pattern of electronic misbehavior.
Experts in the University of Catania’s electronic engineering department have been unable to give a singular answer to explain the irregularity. The digital misfires could have to do with the network of power generators based in Sicily, or even with an underwater electric cable that is currently under construction.
Sicilian digital clock owners will have to go back to old-fashioned timepieces, or they are destined to be 20 minutes early for all their appointments until the electrical variations can be accounted for.
.
And so it begins….the machines are going to take us over.
Maximum Overdrive, anybody?
D.T.!!
Perhaps we will have the record least 90 degree days this summer.
We must be the only place having off and on sun at random intervals.
There is a patch of blue sky to my north that’s been holding t it’s ground for the last 20 mins or so.
More of the same on global warming.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/06/scary-snowpack-stories.html
Correction*
aw darn! I forget what the phrase was!!!
It’s not global warming it’s ______.
I know that much.
That’s really a good analysis of the research. And I like his unbiased approach to the emotionally loaded arguements on both sides of the topic.
Global Warning:
I call BS… (cough, cough)
🙂
Nice, we now have some arguments against this stupid politically incorrect topic. Al Gore, need we say more???
Funny, that wasn’t even meant to rhime 😉
Global warming isn’t a political issue or a joke, and hearing opinions from various people of doing nothing to improve how we use earth’s resources is the real joke to me. I’ve come to the realization that once they find the undisputable proof it won’t really matter by then anyway 😦
Right Mike, trouble is by the time they find the indisputable proof, no one will believe it after all the crying wolf that goes on.
Picked up 0.09″ of drizzle overnight. Just a trace at PDX. As usual, the local terrain in my area squeezes out QPF.
Juneuary. There, it’s been said.
Now, onto brighter days.
True
I have been absent for a while and see all these options to communicate, so I tested the options here, interesting.
Test one complete and final.
LOL
HOLD THE PHONE!
Ladies and Gentleman if I can have your attention please I would like to proudly present tonight’s 00z ECMWF.
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Do we see a pattern shift on the horizon? 588Dm heights pushing into Oregon and what looks like a decent core of heat finally spreading west-northwest into the Great Basin region. Hmmmmm.
Eh, I wouldn’t put too much stock in it. The pattern you’re referencing is way out at day 10, and that’s not even a true four corners high setup, just a lobe of the East pacific ridge nudging inland with what looks to be another pacific trough waiting offshore at it’s heels. I would put a pretty penny on that kind of thing being gone by the 12Z run anyway.
This entire cruddy Spring I really haven’t complained much or anything, but 00z GFS SUCKS it’s pure #$(@*#(@* and _______, even some #(%***(#*(@.. Wednesday is just flat out ridiculously disgusting looking.
6/12/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:81 at CW2551 Medford(1491 ft) & CW8927 Young Lif(1631 ft)
Low: 58 at Echo(680 ft) & Blalock(280 ft)
Coldest:
High:42 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
Low: 26 at DESCHUTES PORTAB (5100 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
DESCHUTES PORTAB (68/26 ) (5100 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.51″ at DW5719 Junction City(325ft)
0.50″ at SEVENMILE MARSH(6200ft)
0.46″ at CW9669 Springfield(462ft)
I think it’s just hilarious this talk of next winter. How about we enjoy the summer that hasn’t even arrived yet. After a couple of warmer and drier months it might be time to talk of next winter. But until Labor day is past us I just want to think about warm sunny days. Besides all we have to do is look for what these so called experts call for next winter, then expect just the opposite to happen. It has lately so why not next winter too?
Does jesse work here ? Ba da ba ba ba
00Z GFS @ KTTD – No surprises here. All 16 days are cooler than normal.
2nd half of the run is even cooler. This run so far is the coolest run over all out of the last several.
The sun appeared around 8 and then there were high clouds but the sun was still visible until 1pm or so and now it’s steady rain.
🙂 😀
Nice solid cluster of showers to NW of me, and including the Willamette Valley too. Honestly, the radar reminds me of the average December afternoon. Pineapple express is another way of putting it.
Steady rain in Oregon City since 5:00. 61.5 degrees with day light at 7 pm, so I know it’s summer. Checked the calendar to make sure it didn’t say ‘2010’. Is this ‘Ground Hog’s Day’?
The rain is here…ahead of schedule.
Once again based on satellite and radar trends, rain amounts might be heavier south of Portland again. This has been the case the last 3-4 weeks or so it seems.
Nearly half an inch fell around Eugene but just a Trace in clark county. Interesting how all the systems have been passing south of PDX the last 3 weeks or so.
rain is here now
Sun has been here now 🙂
Usually a jet stream like that overhead would result in occasional cold cored funnel cloud activity. Happens every June, like last year for example. Well, looks like there is some fun to look forward to afterall!
Huge changes in the short term forecast this morning:
AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH 1.75 TO 2 INCHES OF LAYERED MOISTURE. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A 115+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC.
Hence unexpected soaking rains start this evening in the Willamette Valley. Spring 2011 curse continues.
How much is that in mph?
I calculated 93. Something
I lied. 71 mph
Now it’s the Summer 2011 curse Brian. :p
Actually having a wet June is very important in regards to keeping the upcoming fire season under wraps. A wet may followed by a dry warm June would be the worst case scenario as the vegatation statewide would grow quick and densely and then wither. A wet/cool June keeps the foliage from growing quite as fast because of the lack of sunlight and also keeps it greener deeper into the heart of summer thus making the window a large fire can start a bit smaller.
Austin, if you’re serious.
http://www.militaryfactory.com/conversioncalculators/speed_knots_to_miles_per_hour.asp
Good points Andrew!
I did say yesterday that today’s weather would be back to reality for the NW. I just didn’t expect this much rain 😦
I barely got a trace.
Yep just a little light drizzle here.
Looks like the high yesterday will be 68 and last nights low will be 53. Thx KPTV weather staffers. Paid to do NOTHING! Time to get some new weatherpeople, Mark!
Well, if anyone else is as anul as I and wishes an up to date 7 day forecast, one only has to go to KGW weather. They update theirs!
*anal*
+1 runrain. Fox 12 weekend people are just good hair and pearly smiles. Not a lot of passion for the weather.
You can tell when the 7-day isn’t made by Mark because it’s basically a copy/paste of the NWS forecast. When they even bother to update it that is.
Ha! Even I could forecast yesterdays weather. And I have thining hair and less than pearly teeth!! (TMI?)
I hate weatherpeople that do nothing. Why even bother with a person, just post the forecast.
O U T S T A N D I N G S U N R I S E A L E R T !!!
An outstanding sunrise alert has been issued across the Portland metro area due to unusual sky conditions being reported. In the event that this mornings skies may inspire shock and awe, and higher than normal BBQ useage, a return to m,ore seasonal cooler and cloudy conditions will return to the PNW. Please stay tuned to your local NOAA office for further information on what to do in the event of sunny weather….
that didn’t last long. got up for a bit at 8 it was all sunny. got back up at 9, clouds everywhere. now it’s completely overcast… isn’t that just the opposite of what it was supposed to be?
The one thing that I love most about working the graveyard shift is enjoying the sunrises’. There are so many days just like these that if you didn’t get up before the sun rose and the low clouds formed or an approaching system obscures the blue skies, you would miss the only part of the day that was nice….sigh, back to “Juneary”
Today turned out to be really nice though, hope we see more of the same. Of course it can warm up some and I am fine with that too.
6/11/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:80 at CW8927 Young Life Ranch(1631 ft)
Low: 57 at Rufus(185 ft)
Coldest:
High 44 at CRATER LAKE RIM(7050 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 28 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
CW8927 Young Lif (80/43 ) (1631 ft )
COLGATE (70/33) (3293 ft)
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.44″ at J RIDGE(5180ft)
0.42″ at FLAGSTAFF HILL(3945ft)
The GFS briefly brings snow to the elevation of Timberline Lodge a day or two next week 😆 ……I’m beginning to wonder if the snow that fell up there this season will completely melt at all before next fall comes along.
Be assured–it will melt and all be gone by August at the Lodge. There will still be last years snow remaining on Palmer snow field and in the sheltered gullies.
00z GFS is ridiculous for June…low’s in the 30’s Tuesday-Saturday next week with a 31 (!) on Friday morning , highs struggling to make or barely break 60. Egads!
Gotta love that text output. 😛
From my hike around Coldwater Lake near Mt. St. Helens.
12.2 miles, 1,600′ elevation gain. It was great but the late season snow made for an interesting hike for two reasons:
1. Crossing a steep snowbank
2. Soaking wet feet from crossing a “stream”
That lake looks cold!
Great pics as usual, Tyler. Thanks for sharing them.
You didn’t eat any of that pink snow did ya? 😉 The submerged tree trunk photo looks like a painting. Beautiful shots!
Tyler-
The water below the “G waterfall” is an amazing shade of blue, what river or lake is that? Always love the trips to Mt. St. Helens!!!! Awesome job picture taking!!!
What a fantastic early evening on tap! Rather than focus on the coming gloom let’s enjoy this while we can.
In my opinion, today ended up pretty decent. I’ve been throughout the west side (aloha, beaverton, hillsboro, etc), and it cleared up pretty well. Not a cold,. rainy, bundle up rose parade day, but not a shorts and t-shirt one either. Could be (and has been!) way worse. I just hope once “summer” gets here and hopefully stays, the rivers calm down and get nice and slow and mellow so it works for good floating!
18z is even cooler!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd
850Mb temps -2c Wednesday…. Really.
If it stays dry, I like it.
It seems that most people are very annoyed by the constant cloudy and cool weather 😦
Did you take a poll? 😉
There are a ton of people on facebook that might agree with my statement Jesse. I bet if you checked out any of the weather pages on facebook by Portland area mets you might notice posts are filled with comments like where’s the sun, when is summer going to arrive, when is Portland going to hit 80 deg again, or I’m tired of the gloom. So Jesse I don’t need to take a poll to notice how people are annoyed with the gloom.
Look outside! Tonight isn’t very gloomy.
Don’t worry tomorrow will be back to reality 😆
That’s the spirit! When life gives you lemonade make lemons, right? 😉
I guess in a climate like this low clouds are just a way of life….either deal with it or move somewhere else right??
Now you’re getting it. We’re making progress!
Ashely you’re spot on! 🙂 When the winter time blues come I go to Disney World……….virtually on YouTube as I can avoid long lines that way.
My goal is not to be pessimistic but just to alert people to the reality of our climate. so many on this blog get so worked up come winter and the vast majority of the time we get let down and disappointed. To me it seems pointless to get all excited about something that is so elusive around here.
You’re just being a weenie. There is no justification for it. You aren’t doing anybody any favors with your alarmist posts that are based on your emotions I would guess, not facts.
i can not say for certainty anything because we don’t know 100% what is going to happen but in my non-expert opinion it seems the below normal temps we have expirenced this spring does not bode well for this upcoming winter. another mild winter is what i see. the majority of the years that have have been mentioned on this blog where we had well below normal springs and a record low number of 70 or 80 degress days through june the next winter wasn’t anything to write home about. I think the yucky cycle will continue this winter. Record cold and snow east and 40 degree 1,000 foot just a few degrees away for snow portland oregon. I emphasize that this is not for certain but if i was a betting man my stakes would be on warmer and more depressing than normal
If I had to bet my money I would go for a cooler but snow less winter as in less then 1 inch within 24 hours.
If we get our January cold it will more then likely be dry with the bloggers going nuts over the GFS showing 2 solid weeks of snow and nothing happens except black ice.
Ashley, I cannot stress this enough. Don’t post unless you have the correct facts. You say that a cold spring is a bad sign for the upcoming winter. That is completely false. The only three colder sprongs than this one at PDX were 1967, 1964 and 1955. Notice all of these years are from our last -PDO cold phase, a time in which, I’m sure you realize, our winters were consistently colder and snowier. Now let’s look at the winters following those three aforementioned years specifically. 2 out of three of them had some sort of historic cold wave between November and February. December 1964 holds the honor for PDX’s all-time December record low, and of course November 1955 had an intense early season arctic outbreak. Not to mention other cold waves both those years had, as well as numerous snow events. You claim to be informing people here but you are in fact grossly misinforming them. LOOK STUFF UP BEFORE YOU POST. Honestly it’s not that hard to do.
I’ve got to go with Jesse on this one (really!). An argument should be based on facts when you’re talking about facts to start with (a cold/wet spring).
Just returned from a Mt. Rainier climb, where I could appreciate the significant effects of our historically cool wet spring. There is still a 200″ snowpack at Paradise. Despite all the snow and cold, glaciers are showing extensive crevasses, which typically reflects increase in motion; major climbing route which one would have thought lasted late into the season because of all the snow is now essentially shut down because of the opening up of crevasses. I read that for the first time since being measured glaciers on rainier are showing positive mass balance; I would expect significant glacial advance will be seen as a consequence. BTW, it was beautiful and sunny all week up there at 10000′ , could see all the June gloom below, with the exception of a 4″ snowfall one night/morning.
Sounds beautiful! I haven’t been there in some years so thanks for sharing as it brings back memories.
Getting some partial clearing, now 61.1°F.
Had a high/low of 64/48 yesterday. Currently cloudy and 55. Only 0.36″ of rain so far this month here.
So far I’m not seeing any “June Gloom” this year….
But that low next week might kick it in, but still it depends on how long it lasts.
You live in a much different climate than we do. The Cascades block the marine layer from encroaching that far inland.
00z EURO to me shows slight, subtle hints at a pattern change although I see more of the same more than anything, just small indications!
Hmmm…looks like more of the same to me. I can see another trough poised to drop down on us at day 10.
I only noticed the 576dm line bulging north at times, but 12z EURO is definitely erasing any chance of a change.
I only noticed the 576dm line bulging north at times, but 12z EURO is definitely erasing any chance of a change. ….
6/10/2011 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:82 at DW0462 Umatilla(1273 ft) & Mission(1235 ft)
Low: 62 at Blalock(280 ft)
Coldest:
High:44 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
Low: 31 at Diamond Lake (Or (5260 ft ) & MOSS SPRINGS (5850 ft ) & ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 36 degrees
Mission (82/46 ) (1235 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.78″ at FORT ROCK(4413ft)
0.74″ at BROWNS WELL(4560ft)
0.71″ at BRER RABBIT(5780ft)
Some nice rains out on the high desert!
Time for me to start looking at what the record least 70+ and 80+ degree days are by June 30th each year. We might be rivaling those numbers.
So Far:
80 days : 1
70 days: 10
Just took a quick look at last 62 year of records. The least number of 70 degree days in any year by June 30th is 18 days set in 1991. Right now we have 10 days and only 4 are predicted on the latest GFS which runs through the 26th. So it is possible that we tie or break that record. We would need 9 more days above 70 the rest of the month for this to NOT be a record.
The least number of 80 degree days in any year by June 30th is 2 days set in 1964 and 1980. Currently we sit at 1 day in 2011.
Hopefully the GFS ends up wrong about the possible trough coming next week..Oregonians are dying for more 80 deg temps sometime this year 🙂
Hopefully 00z EURO comes out tonight and has other ideas and we see a sudden change in 5-7 days. I WISH…. It’s nice that we are done with the wet season, but at the same time c’mon it’s a little too cool and a little too gray out there.
Thanks for the update, Mark. It was cold and wet! Understatement. I’m thinking this may be a typical Summer where it turns warm-to-hot after July 4th-7th.