Typical spring weather for Oregon’s Spring Break

9:30pm Friday…

Here we are in the last two weeks of March and the forecast looks very much like…spring! Winter is in the rear-view mirror I suppose; we haven’t seen chilly weather in 3 weeks, and today was another warmer than average day

Oregon’s Spring Break has begun and continues through Sunday the 27th. I remember lots of years like this upcoming week, a real mix of cold showers plus warm sunshine. A chilly upper-level trough moves through the region tomorrow with morning rain then afternoon sunbreaks. In fact the 2nd part of the day should be quite dry!

Showers pick up a bit Sunday and then Monday will be a gloomy/wet day as a warm front passes by. But a high-amplitude upper-level ridge finally pushes the clouds and rain north of us Tuesday for a MUCH warmer day.

A mix of sunny skies, light offshore (easterly) flow, and warm atmosphere overhead means temperatures soar…by March standards. You can see the offshore flow on the surface map for Tuesday afternoon.

How warm? Models are forecasting somewhere between +10 and +13 deg (C) at 850mb over Salem/Portland. If all remains “perfect”, somewhere between 70-75 in Portland Tuesday. The record high for Tuesday & Wednesday is 73 degrees, it could happen. Regardless, it’ll be the warmest so far this season. It appears a weak marine push (cooler air from southwest) may happen Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens and a trough passes by to the north. Most likely we’ll just see some clouds that day and temps slightly cooler.

So the first 5 days of spring break feature chilly showers, a soggy/wet day, and then 2 very warm May-like days. Nice…

By late next week, the ridging has weakened quite a bit and a cool trough is approaching.

but it’s still a bit warmer than normal at that point and most likely dry. That gives us days 6 & 7 near or a bit warmer than normal and likely dry. Beyond that point I’m guessing we’ll slip into a cooler/wetter pattern, but that’s a long way out. Right now it appears the best ski conditions will be tomorrow and Sunday, then some spring skiing (sunburn!) midweek.

Watch out for icy/snowy roads tomorrow morning and again Sunday morning

If you are headed for the coastline, tomorrow looks surprisingly nice since the bulk of tonight’s cold front rain will be gone soon after sunrise. Lots of sunshine and a brisk northwest wind will be balanced out by strong late March sun angle.

Enjoy the weekend and your spring break!

54 Responses to Typical spring weather for Oregon’s Spring Break

  1. tim says:

    Mondays storm could be interesting potential wind event.

    • Zach says:

      That, and possibly big snow in the mountains. I have my doubts it will be terribly wet in the valley though.

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    Hurray- finally got my first 60+ temperature for the year this afternoon. Not a clear day, but enough sun to allow temperatures to climb. When’s my first 70? probably not until the third week of April.

  3. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    W7, you sure about that one good day of rain before the month ends? What about us not being warmer than normal? It’s not even like it’s small amount. We’re 1.5 degrees above normal. Pretty big anomaly. We will be >25% below normal for rainfall when it’s all said and done too.

    Like I said, warm and dry.

    • Zach says:

      Hey at least not as dry as 2021. Should finish around 3″ as opposed to 1.55″ last year. Its interesting that we haven’t had a “wet” March since 2017.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        True. Let’s hope our April is nowhere near as dry as last year. We don’t need another 6-7 month summer this year.

  4. Ken in Wood Village says:

    There’s a decent shower just South of Detroit. I don’t see any lightning from this shower yet but it’s a start 🤗⛈️

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    We’re not done with the rain here yet- i see more periods of precipitation tonight and tomorrow. The spring here is indeed starting off wet.

  6. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I haven’t been online talking about the weather for awhile because I started a new job almost two months ago and been focused on my work. I’m writing because I see something a little interesting for tomorrow into Monday. It’s the upper air flow, it’s coming from the South to Southwest. When I was watching Jeff in the morning, he was showing a model run that had pop up showers coming from the South. Normally when we have a low pressure system off the Oregon/California border, we get moisture coming from the South which turn into thunderstorms. I think we could see thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon or late evening tomorrow into Monday. I haven’t had a chance to really look into what the models are showing but I think we should keep an eye on the weather tomorrow 🤔 🍩⛈️

    • Hank from Salem (524' Elevation) says:

      I agree, been keeping an eye on it. Joseph dames from KOIN 6 also agrees.

      Evening HIGH-RES models should be interesting.

  7. Oliver Watson says:

    I dont know what any of these forecasts are seeing but it’s apparent we are not going to h e a very wet or cool spring. As these rain events get closer they just fizzle out. I feel we are chasing a dangling carrot and grasping for straws. So begins the long hot, dry, and firey season

    • tim says:

      Well at least we don’t have to worry about green tomatoes anymore those days are long gone thanks to climate change.

  8. tim says:

    Looks like March will end up being wetter then normal after next week rain in Seattle, time to turn the faucet off until next fall it’s been a very wet water year in western wa.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      What rain? Looks pretty much completely dry through the end of the month.

      • tim says:

        The 00z gfs is dryer then previous runs but the euro and gem is a bit wetter so two out of three ain’t bad I’m going with the wetter two, they really need to update the gfs it’s pathetic.

      • W7ENK says:

        I hope you’re just being facetious, but I highly doubt it…

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          It ain’t going to rain this weekend. The rug has been pulled for a while now. We might get a spritz on Monday. Looking almost completely dry for the next 10 days. Hopefully summer can start in March this year just like it did last year.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Ha. Why are you showing the 850 temp map? Did you mean to post the 500 anomaly map? In any event, you can dismiss the Euro if you’re trying to say that we won’t be almost entirely dry over the next 10 days. The GFS is the new king.

        • W7ENK says:

          Oops, yes.

          But still, this clearly illustrates Sunday’s cool trough, and still has moisture on tap. So no, your assertion that it will be “…completely dry for the next 10 days” is very likely to bust.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          We shall see

        • tim says:

          Pete Parsons new outlook has us cool and wet thru April the in May we start warming up.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Well, March is going to end up warm and dry, so….

        • W7ENK says:

          OMG, please stop with your conjecture.

          Where do you come up with the basis for that statement? Portland’s average High for March is 56. Our average high for this March so far has been exactly 56.0F

          Average low for March is 43, so far this March 40.9F

          So, I’m not sure where you get the warm bit, but as for the dry bit, we’re ~1 inch under our March average with a full week left to go, and at least one good day of rain before then.

          https://www.weather.gov/pqr/cliplot

          Just stop it.

        • Jim says:

          And it continues

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          We’re running .8 degrees above normal for temp and we are .2” below normal for precipitation. Those are facts. There is more warm and dry weather coming up. We will end up warm and dry. I’ll put money on it.

  9. Roland Derksen says:

    The next few days are really not looking any better than what we’ve been having since last week: more rain and clouds. Temperatures have climbed somewhat (a high of 54F for me yesterday) but it’s SUN that I want to see. i doubt we’re going to come close to March 2017 or 2007, but it’s definetley looking like we’ll have at least 8 inches by the 31st!

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Well, I wrote too soon yesterday. Skies cleared out wonderfully in the afternoon, and we had a really beautiful evening. This morning still is sunny, but high clouds are moving in already.

  10. tim says:

    I’m lost for words on why the cfs is being so bullish with la Nina thru the summer when all other enso models are showing either neutral or el nino, the cfs used to be warm bias but it must have been updated to be cold bias for whatever reason.

  11. tim says:

    Looks like el nino is starting to develop with warming in region 1.2 the cfs model appears to be too cold with keeping la Nina around this summer, not that it matters since enso has no effect on our summer weather 🥵.

  12. Hank from Salem (524' Elevation) says:

    Because today is the day of spring that feels like spring, happy spring!

  13. West Linn 200 says:

    Still got significant cloud cover here, but I can tell the sky is starting to turn brighter so it must be burning off.

    Last night I was pondering if today would be a a bust given how much cloud cover and moisture there was even at 11PM. We all know how stubborn those clouds can be, but looks like the sun is going to peak through soon.

  14. Hank from Salem (524' Elevation) says:

    Temperatures going up fast! Been checking it every 10 minutes for the last few hours now and it goes up a degree every time I check it. Low temp 48.1 at 7:48 AM and already 64.4! Bring it on!

  15. Roland Derksen says:

    6.42 inches of precipitation is my amount up to 10 pm last night for the month. That’s above normal-even here, so if (or when) that warm drier air comes up from the south, I’ll be cheering it on. I’ve even seen fog here this morning!

  16. W7ENK says:

    Tomorrow is looking fantastic! Too bad I have to work all day… though I have meetings all afternoon, so maybe I can get away with taking the laptop outside and soaking up some of that warm sunshine?

    On the other hand, everything in my neighborhood is blooming right now, so it may turn into an all-out assault on my eyes and sinuses, and I may die… (not really)

    Ooooooof!!!

  17. Roland Derksen says:

    Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise up to around 60F here next week. That’s cool compared to Portland, but it will be nice enough here. I don’t like this cold rain we’ve been having in recent days.

  18. lurkingsince’14 says:

    Love to see that North Coast forecast! Well, other than Monday 😏

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      W7 can apologize anytime now for pooh-pooing my forecast from 5 days ago.

      • Eeek! says:

        I quite agree. I love seeing your rain stats and views as it goes along with my obs. I think the warm stretch is on life support now as a positive bust.

      • W7ENK says:

        Apologize for what? You said:

        “…the GFS has been insistent on developing the ridge and parking it off of our coast early next week…”

        “Parked” for all of — what, 2-1/2 days? That’s transitory at best, there’s nothing “parked” about that. You made it sound like we were about to slip into a July pattern, and that simply isn’t true. What the models were showing last week most certainly isn’t coming to fruition, so I ask again, what do I need to apologize for?

        You take things so personally when someone disagrees with your forecasts, jeez. If the prof mets did that every time they busted a forecast, they’d never stop apologizing. Relax, it’s just weather.
        Get outside and enjoy it, while you can!

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          I’m just poking the bear. I never take disagreement personally. I’m very far from a professional, so nobody should take my forecast seriously. You seem to get uptight, defensive, and even hostile quite frequently, so I can’t help but give you a ribbing. Plus, you go out of your way to disagree with 100% of the things I say.

        • Jim says:

          I agree with both of you 100% of the time. How’s that?😙😁

      • lurkingsince’14 says:

        To be fair, Wednesday fell apart and turned into a soaker apparently. At least it’ll be mild!

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          We will get less than .10” of rain. Probably close to zero. It won’t be a soaker.

        • lurkingsince’14 says:

          North Coast tho, guess we’ll see 🤷🏻‍♂️

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Oh yea. Maybe .10” – .20” there.

        • lurkingsince’14 says:

          Well not sure what the total was but only damp from 11-3 today in Manzanita. Mostly mist, few bigger showers. Sun’s coming out now 😎

  19. Paul D says:

    WOOT! First.

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