Here we are in the last two weeks of March and the forecast looks very much like…spring! Winter is in the rear-view mirror I suppose; we haven’t seen chilly weather in 3 weeks, and today was another warmer than average day
Oregon’s Spring Break has begun and continues through Sunday the 27th. I remember lots of years like this upcoming week, a real mix of cold showers plus warm sunshine. A chilly upper-level trough moves through the region tomorrow with morning rain then afternoon sunbreaks. In fact the 2nd part of the day should be quite dry!
Showers pick up a bit Sunday and then Monday will be a gloomy/wet day as a warm front passes by. But a high-amplitude upper-level ridge finally pushes the clouds and rain north of us Tuesday for a MUCH warmer day.
A mix of sunny skies, light offshore (easterly) flow, and warm atmosphere overhead means temperatures soar…by March standards. You can see the offshore flow on the surface map for Tuesday afternoon.
How warm? Models are forecasting somewhere between +10 and +13 deg (C) at 850mb over Salem/Portland. If all remains “perfect”, somewhere between 70-75 in Portland Tuesday. The record high for Tuesday & Wednesday is 73 degrees, it could happen. Regardless, it’ll be the warmest so far this season. It appears a weak marine push (cooler air from southwest) may happen Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens and a trough passes by to the north. Most likely we’ll just see some clouds that day and temps slightly cooler.
So the first 5 days of spring break feature chilly showers, a soggy/wet day, and then 2 very warm May-like days. Nice…
By late next week, the ridging has weakened quite a bit and a cool trough is approaching.
but it’s still a bit warmer than normal at that point and most likely dry. That gives us days 6 & 7 near or a bit warmer than normal and likely dry. Beyond that point I’m guessing we’ll slip into a cooler/wetter pattern, but that’s a long way out. Right now it appears the best ski conditions will be tomorrow and Sunday, then some spring skiing (sunburn!) midweek.
Watch out for icy/snowy roads tomorrow morning and again Sunday morning
If you are headed for the coastline, tomorrow looks surprisingly nice since the bulk of tonight’s cold front rain will be gone soon after sunrise. Lots of sunshine and a brisk northwest wind will be balanced out by strong late March sun angle.
Enjoy the weekend and your spring break!