8pm Monday…
We hit 97 degrees in Portland today, the hottest day so far this summer.
Recall that we hit 95 back on June 1st. Today was our 4th 90 degree day of the year.
Weak (and hot) easterly (offshore) flow continued through this morning, but now onshore flow (westerly wind) has arrived west of the Cascades. Temps are cooling nicely compared to yesterday, especially near the Coast Range where the cooler marine air is pouring through the low elevation gaps. This means our “mini-heatwave” has ended; tomorrow will be much more comfortable. In fact the next three days should be nice, just a little on the warm side
Keep in mind our typical high temperature this time of year is in the 70s, so we’re only “cooling” down to 8-12 degrees above normal this week. That’s because the hot ridge is weakening only temporarily…Here’s the Thursday map
Already a new ridge is popping up just to our west. But watch what happens by Saturday
A massive hot dome of air directly over the Pacific Northwest. For the geeks, 500mb heights are forecast to 594dm or higher. The 18z Euro ensemble average even paints a 597dm just north of us.
This is major heatwave territory
The big meteorological questions with 5-6 days to go:
- How strong will the ridge be and where exactly will it be centered?
- How high will 850mb temps go? Operational model runs are forecasting hottest ever recorded over Salem on Sunday (+30 to +31 on both GFS/ECMWF). Could that really happen? It’s never been above 28.3 there.
- Will there be offshore flow…or weak onshore flow? That the difference between 102 and 108 (just an example)
- How long will the hot ridge stick around?
For now, our 7 Day Forecast looks like this. Those numbers Saturday-Monday are a bit on the low side considering what we’re seeing on models:
I’ll get into more detail tomorrow as hopefully things become a bit more clear. For now…
- We have a heatwave coming next weekend. It’s TBD whether it’s a “typical” heatwave or something historic.
- Make your plans based on that information. If you don’t have AC…maybe head to the coast or Cascades?
- IF power goes out next weekend at your home, and you have a medical condition, what would you do? Start thinking about that.
- The all-time June temperature record (102) is in jeopardy at PDX
- This entire 2nd half of June is going to go into the history books as a scorcher, like 2015. Keep in mind today was the 6th day with a high temperature at/above 80 in Portland. There will be at least 7-8 more.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
Sunday temperatures in Salem/Keizer, from all sites and models.
Weather.com 112
Accuweather.com 104
18z gfs 113
18z Ecmwf 114
Timeanddate.com 108
Norway 113
Serbia-mos 114
Access-g 107
Icon 115
Weather.bug 107
Weather.gov 107
This is just crazy, I remember some point in July 2018 it was supposed to be 111, but it got denied by the smoke, this time that won’t happen, Looks like history is going to be set since our original record was 108 i think in the 30s and 1981. Stay cool out there folks.
Freddy’s is selling out of bottled water. Limited popsicle supply too. Bet A/C units at Home Depot are gone.
Man, I can’t wait for the next blog update! This is one for the all time history books! 110, maybe more????
[…] and jam session tonight to attend to. You can read excellent blogs by Charlie Phillips and Mark Nelsen on the […]
This historic heatwave might be a bust if that upper level low moves in sooner then currently then expected.
That would suck.
Let’s hope it joins the long list of busts this region has had over the past few years!
Man, I can’t wait for the next blog update! This is one for the all time history books! 110, maybe more????
New 7 day on kptv is shocking. Buckle up folks.
Just saw it. Records will be smashed.
I will be inside praying my A/C doesn’t melt into a puddle of goo.
Cliff mass new post today, historic heatwave this weekend.
Wow we may actually break the 107F record.
It’s gonna get HOT!! 🔥🥵💀
<
blockquote>
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2021
https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=58591053
…sure am glad i live on the “it’s a dry heat” side 🙂
The 12z GFS is upping the ante yet again. 121 on Monday. There is no longer a doubt that we will break our all-time temp record. The questions are: how much do we break it by and how many days consecutively do we break it?
Back down to run-of-the-mill 90s and lower 100s indefinitely after Monday.
Petition to change the Willamette Valley’s name to Upper Death Valley?
Of course, there’s never any doubt when you worst-case-scenario. (Yes, I deliberately used that phrase as a verb, because it’s accurate.)
I think my use of the phrase has been appropriate. When historic records are handily beaten, it stands to reason that a rational worst-case scenario (or best-case depending on perspective) would not account for that.
Statistically speaking, the weather we are about to have is so unlikely that it is almost not possible. Yet, here we are.
Liking the new 18z run for Monday. Dropped like 15F.
If the Euro follows tonight I will be very pleased.
Fox12 weather guy this morning says Portland’s all time high of 107° was reached 79 years ago. Wrong!
How about this:
Portland has topped out at 107 degrees three times. The first time was on July 30, 1965. It happened twice again in 1981, on August 8 and 10
Saw it on KGW
Jeezus, I’m old…
Downtown that is correct. I know it was 1942, but I don’t know which July day. I think it was the 2nd. That being said, it is still inaccurate as downtown is not Portland’s official observing station.
The strongest ridge in history possibley this weekend and seattle will not tie or break the all time record high of 103 set july 2009 the reason becaus there’s no strong offshore flow with this event.
Unfortunate.
Sad to think that our coolest day in the next two weeks is still 8 degrees above normal. When it’s all said an done, we will likely have at least 20 straight days above normal. Many 15 to 30 degrees above.
As I said regarding the dry spring, it’s worse than a worst-case scenario.
For comparison, here’s what each TV station plus the same websites from yesterday are saying for temperatures only from Friday to Tuesday.
NWS: 94, 103, 103, 102, 93
KATU: 96, 102, 103, 100, 88
KOIN: 94, 103, 102, 100, 92
KGW: 96, 103, 105, 103, 95
KPTV: 97, 102, 106, 106, 96
Rod Hill (portlandweather.com): 96, 100, 102, 98, 90
TWC: 97, 107, 107, 104, 96
Accuweather: 96, 104, 100, 86, 91
The non-Portland websites are in to compare to how conservative/aggressive they are.
If we could just get some offshore flow we could easily hit 110F.
Why would anyone want that?
People who want to witness history.
I want to witness history when the high is 30 below normal, but that never happens in the summer. It’s always the hot records. 😦
I want to witness history where there is record snow in the mountains and there is still 10 feet on the ground at skibowl by labor day …..my kind if history
Why on Earth would you want to “witness history when the high is 30 below normal”? You’d want a high of 45 in the summer? Besides being impossible, that’s just crazy talk. People like to go outside in the summer and do a variety of fun activities in the nice weather, which would not be possible in 45-degree temps
It’s a weather geek thing. 110 would be miserable. But I want to see it!
It seems like yesterday that we were in a cool, damp pattern around this time of year and people were whining because they wanted sunny, warm, and hot. Better be careful what you wish for!
Weather Underground has officially jumped into la la’ land with the weather models.
It is calling for:
Sat: 108
Sun: 108
Mon: 104
Crying and laughing has commenced.
Fox 12 has 106, so WU isn’t far off. It’s going to be a miserable next 7+ days.
They’ve got 109° now for Sunday.
Now (for Sunday) it’s calling for 111° !!
And now 112°!!
What’s gonna happen in july and august?, do things level off to the typical 80s and 90s or only get even hotter since those are the hottest months of the summer.
Its impossible to say. I don’t really trust the seasonal modeling much. I doubt the rest of summer is “cool” but hopefully at least more average mid July – August.
Too bad there is not much offshore flow. Otherwise we would have easily broken the 107 record.
We definitely might break it. Granted I agree, the offshore flow looks weak and could end up being more NW depending on where the ridge sits.
I am hoping the pacific saves the day and keeps us lower in the 100s.
“This is so nuts I can’t believe it.
The origin of this potential heatwave is a huge, high amplitude ridge of high pressure aloft (see the forecast for 11 AM Sunday. It would represent the strongest ridge in history for our region.”
Copied from Cliff Mass’ blog.
Again, F this.
F this.
Anyone else already looking forward to “fall”?
Very much. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if fall doesn’t show itself until around Halloween. Our summers seem to be getting longer on both ends. It started at the end of February this year.
Yup, I have similar thoughts about the arrival of our usual fall weather as well. I’d be okay with warmer (not hot) September and October temps as long as we get a good amount of rain. Probably not a popular opinion but I’d love an October 2016 redux.
I’m looking forward to retiring in a few years and moving somewhere that has weather like we used to.
The END is near!
This previous heatwave was clearly a taste for what Summer is going to bring. I really hope I am wrong. Last Summer was apocalyptic.
Covid-19, forest fires, heatwaves and such a dry season even the trees showed signs of drought which can reach way down.
If that occurs again I will be writing local gov. on measures to create new artificial water reservoirs in harping back to this:
https://www.opb.org/news/article/portland-oregon-water-bureau-customers-filtration-plant-tualatin-valley-gresham/
Seattle is only 34% air conditioned – lowest in the nation. Portland is #3 at 70%. This according to The Weather Channel.
#3 lowest.
Definitely gonna be HOT!! 🔥🥵
Disgustingly hot. Sure hope my A/C doesn’t meltdown.
My shit today 90 degrees in my house.
Got it fixed today… $350.00 later.
Just make sure the reactor core is properly sealed, it should be fine.
☢️
00z GFS upping the ante…
Saturday – 110
Sunday – 116
Monday – 118
Tuesday – 108
Wednesday – 104
Welcome to Red Bluff. Please enjoy your stay.
PS. Most home thermometers do NOT register above 120F.
The not-to-be-mentioned weather apps showing 106° for Sat and Sun.
Had a historic ice/snow storm in feb. now this could be historic!
I see mark keeps referencing to 2015, enough said.
As we ride this heatwave, remember to keep your hands, arms, feet, and legs inside at all times, and please, no flash photography. Stay cool everyone!
Thanks as always for keeping us informed, Mark, especially with this potentially record-breaking pattern coming up!