10pm Thursday…
It’s been another extremely busy day for fire crews over and west of the Cascades. These last two days have seen an unprecedented number of large fires west of the Cascade crest.
There is one bit of bad news, but much more good than bad weatherwise this evening.
First, evacuation zones have been expanded in Clackamas County; Level 3 (GO NOW) includes Marquam, Estacada, Colton, & Molalla. Even Oregon City, Canby, & Sandy are in a Level 2 (BE READY) zone now. You can find this map on the Clackamas County page Click for a better view…
DOES THIS MEAN THERE IS A WALL OF FLAMES AND QUICKLY ADVANCING WILDFIRES DOWN INTO THESE TOWNS?
ABSOLUTELY NOT AT THIS TIME! Authorities are being very careful and proactive. They are making sure people are not in danger in these towns. An “abundance of caution” might be the best phrasing here.
But there is very good news for evacuees weatherwise…the dry east wind is gone! The most dangerous “explosive fire growth” phase of this event has ended. As a state official said at a news conference earlier today, he felt today was the day “we’re turning the corner”. That’s good news.
At this moment wind is either calm or almost calm everywhere west of the Cascades. I can’t find a wind gust over 15 mph inland from the coastline! That includes the Cascade foothills as well. And that wind is coming from a westerly direction = more moisture from the Pacific Ocean. A fire sure won’t be racing westward out of the mountains and down into the lowlands in these conditions. Check out relative humidity, way up from the teens and 20s yesterday at this time in the valleys.
The two coastal fires are now under the influence of a chilly & humid marine airmass. They are done making any advance towards the beach towns (Lincoln City).
Where do we head from here? A brief summary…
We now enter a more “normal” forest fire situation in the mountains and foothills. Each afternoon through Sunday a westerly breeze develops, but this will push those fires mainly eastward, farther into the mountains. So if a town hasn’t burned yet, it seems very unlikely it will from this point forward. But fires WILL continue to grow; these are massive fires!
To summarize…in the lowlands of Northwest Oregon.
- There’s no reason to believe any of the large fires will suddenly advance farther down into lower elevations (westward) and into more towns/cities.
- Thick smoke will be with us through Saturday, possibly Sunday as well. Air quality is hazardous in much of the metro area right now, and down into the Willamette Valley.
Now that things are settling down a bit we can take a look at the acreage…the numbers are stunning. Here are the “mega fires” burning in and along the west slopes of the Cascades. Click for a closer view on each one
The 900 square miles of public/private forestland burned hits relatively close to home. I grew up in this area and know how important timber is for these towns. My wife grew up in Sweet Home with relatives in Mill City, Gates, & Blue River. Remember that private timberlands support families and communities too, not just national forests. For some people their future income just burned up, along with a home and/or town.
That’s it for now. I’ll be on tonight at 10/11pm and the evening shows again tomorrow.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
I had trouble earlier today. It’s working now.
There could be some big winners and big losers with the rain this next week. It does not appear to be a widespread soaking.
When I click on Marks weather page it says forbidden. Anyone else having this problem?
The smoke has really cooled off the temperature here. I have a 64F reading early this afternoon. Yesterday at this time it was up to 77F. Other than that, there’s no benefit to this stuff.
Can Mark or someone please explain to me what caused the historic east winds? I know pressure gradients, etc. are involved, but, I’d like some info on what/how caused these supposedly historic winds. Thanks!
With all the fires and stuff going on I’m not surprised no one has said anything about the news that came out yesterday about the upcoming weather patterns for the Fall/Winter season.
NOAA posted yesterday that we have a 75% chance of having a La Nina Fall/Winter this year.
Here is the link to see what they said about La Nina
https://katu.com/news/local/a-sight-for-sore-and-dry-eyes-forecasters-officially-declare-la-nina-is-here
That’s good!
No thanks.
I’ve been following La Niña situation as well. We can and should only tackle one disaster at a time, but I do worry what a damp winter with lower snow levels might mean for landslide risks across these many thousands of acres that are now quite unstable. Time will tell.
Perhaps this will end our two year streak on unusually boring Nov-Jan periods with few storms, mild temps and seemingly lower than normal precipitation. I’m not going out and investing in a snow shovel down at sea level, but at least expect there will be more to talk about. Crossing my fingers we’re all spared from another Mark post in late January talking about it being among the most uneventful winters he’s ever witnessed.
Stay safe everyone!
Eloquent. Absolute corroboration!
Thank you, Mark. You are a calming voice of reason, SCIENCE, numbers, satellites, research, knowledge…. in the face of alarm. I am glad to share your information with friends faraway who are worrying about us.
The sea breeze is bringing in cooler temperatures here today- unfortunately, it’s also bringing in the smoke. This morning, while it was still calm, I could clearly see the mountains. In about an hour and a half time, they became invisible.
Man, the GFS keeps pushing early next week’s precipitation further and further north and west (last 10 runs or so). The 00z operational was a thing of beauty. 12z… not so much for the bulk of the areas that really need it. If this keeps up, the whole PNW might end up high and dry until at least the end of the week. We need rain more than ever. There is still reason to keep hope alive.
The GFS hasn’t had a good track record. I’m leaning more towards the Euro model which is giving us a little bit of rain. Also, with a good onshore flow, we have a good chance of seeing drizzle and high humidity which will help in the firefighting effort.
I’m waiting to see what the 12Z Euro has to say today.
I looked at the 00Z EPS model and hit painting a good amount of moisture for Oregon and Washington (with even a little moisture further South of Oregon). I’m hoping this could be the start of the rainy season for us but I’m not holding my breath for now. We’ll see how things progress.
The 12z ECMWF Is incredible for the western 1/3 of Oregon in the next week! The Willamette Valley and the Portland metro area get absolutely hosed. Foothills of the Cascades get plenty too. Easy to see how a pattern shift to the west can change things in a hurry though.
I do like the Euro a lot. Like you said, looks like Oregon will get hosed but I’m holding off for now about how much we will get until we get a little closer. We have seen the models showing a lot then back off up to the day of the event. It’s looking encouraging to help stomp out the forest fires though. Let’s hope we get a good amount of rain so we can say good-bye to these fires. 🙂
Give us a hurricane level rain total starting NOW through May , I say.
Hi Mark… thanks for these updates and returning to work early from your time off (and working tonight!). It’s important for people to fully understand how quickly these fires spread under high wind, and how they will slow (but not stop) with reduced winds and firefighter containment activity starting. Can you put together a time-lapse without the huge red evac zones that shows the growth and slowing … I love the IR satellite views but can’t find one close in enough for the Riverside fire to be meaningful. Today, 9/11, we honor our first responders – and note they are all hard at it right now! https://HonoringThoseWhoServe.org
Great update, Mark. Glad you clarified that the expanded evac zone doesn’t portend some massive movement of fire. That fact is getting lost on so many people. I suspect you and others would be mentioning if this if it were the case, but is there any sign of another round of heat/dry east wind on the horizon. My worst fear is that we get through this and start to turn corner after some early week showers only to see a repeat.
Can anyone explain to me why Mark Nelsen is the latest update over Clackamas County?
Seriously, this map hasn’t changed, as of 5:12 AM 09/11/2020… Why hasn’t it? I expect the fires to not burn much further… But what the heck? Why couldn’t the county let us know that, on the ground, things were slowing down?
https://ccgis-mapservice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=fe0525732f1a4f679b75a5ccf1c84b30
Thank you Mark. It’s great for us “Corbettites”
To have our own weatherman! (We were in the little red Kia next to you at graduation)
Really appreciate your service!!
Thanks for the information Mark. Reliable information has been very hard to come by. Everyone out this way thinks Molalla is a loss. I just dont see it happening with the switch in weather. Already down to 55 and dewy out.
Do those pictures load really slow for others? I read the entire post and am still waiting for some of the pictures to load.