7pm…
We’ve seen a relatively dry and warm spring so far (March and April) so it’s only fair that we get a soaking at some point right? That’s the case over the next week as we see several weak weather systems bring rounds of showers inland over the Pacific Northwest. I sure don’t see unusually cold/wet weather heading into early May, but just a bit cooler and wetter than normal.
Some key points:
- I don’t see a significant dry period (3 or more days) through at least Wednesday May 8th
- BUT, there will be a few mainly dry days over the next 7-10 days.
- This Wednesday and Friday have the best chance for staying dry
- There are hints that a warmer/drier pattern could return heading into the 2nd week of May
By the way, I tend to post far less often in the warm season because…well…the weather is often very mellow and boring. That’s unless we get a heat wave, freak thunderstorm, or fires.
Another 6-12″ snow is likely in Cascades late tonight through Tuesday. That’s quite a snowstorm to wrap up April…in the end we’ll see 15-30″ snow out of this storm! Last year Government Camp picked up 60″ of snow in April…this year should end up around 20-30″
Check out April rain so far in Portland…noticeably drier than average with many dry days. That was an unusually dry 2+ week period with almost no rain. We actually needed the rain when it finally returned last Thursday. Tomorrow should be a soaker as an upper-level low passes overhead, but we sure won’t be getting 1.50″ of rain so it’s obvious April will still end up drier than average this year
The month has been warmer than average too, I think this is one of my favorite weather geek graphics. Each bar represents one day’s high/low in Portland. April has consisted of very warm days mid-month sandwiched between a cool start and cool end.
What’s Ahead?
We have a series of upper-level troughs (dips in the jet stream) swinging across the Pacific Northwest over the next week or so. One went through today, another tomorrow afternoon, then three more. Each of those brings a round of showers (sometimes heavy, sometimes light), then drier or all dry in-between. You can see the two troughs on each side of us on the 500 millibar anomaly chart here
Another trough swings through Thursday morning, which may or may not slide mainly south of us. Positioning determines how much of the day is wet. Then a deeper trough is right over us this Saturday. I’m thinking that could be an active weather day with downpours…possibly thunder too? The same chart for Saturday…keep in mind blue = lower than average heights = cooler than normal.
A 3rd trough arrives Monday for renewed showers/rain
Finally, hints that the troughing goes away the middle of NEXT week. The chart for Thursday the 9th looks better with higher than normal heights
Apparently I’m in an A.I. mood this evening because these charts are from the ECMWF model’s A.I. forecast. But other models are similar. You can see the solid agreement for regular rainfall this coming weekend through the middle of next week from the regular Euro ensembles (area in the gray box). Then lots more break in the rain starting about 10 days from now…fingers crossed!
The GEFS (GFS ensemble average) chart for the next 10 days also shows above average precipitation (rain). It’s makeup time for all those dry April days!
That’s it for this evening, soak up the rain because you know it’ll get very dry at SOME point in the next two months.
FOX 12 Weather Blog 