Get ready to endure a week-long heatwave as July wraps up

10pm Friday…

It’s midsummer; best weather of the year in the Pacific Northwest and vacation time. Forecasting is typically quite easy this time of year so I’ll be on vacation next week as well. Luckily the forecast IS quite straightforward.

1) It’ll be sunny EVERY DAY Sunday through late next week.

2) BUT…it’ll be HOT starting Sunday afternoon and that continues through the end of next week.

See, that’s an easy forecast. A few highlights…

(kptv)

Our 7 Day Forecast looks like this right now

(kptv)

That’s an especially long heatwave isn’t it? For comparison, the longest stretch we’ve seen at/above 95 degrees in Portland is 6 days…we may be close. Up until 2015 & 2021, that heatwave in 1981 was the all-time hot weather event in our area. The 1941 event was amazingly hot in early July. And of course 2015 (until last year) was one of our greatest/longest heatwaves

(kptv)

How about 90+ day hot streaks? Back in 2009 we had a 10 day stretch starting in late July. That was the heatwave that gave us back to back 106 degree days. I sure don’t see that happening next week. Notice 2015 pops up again.

(kptv)

The ECMWF model’s ensemble average has been very consistent the past 4-5 days. It looks like this right now; a bit hotter than our 7 day forecast since typically these run a bit cool (ECMWF #s) compared to reality in the summer. For example we should be in the lower 80s tomorrow, not 78. This would imply at least 8 days at/above 90 degrees…a scorcher!

(CREDIT: WeatherBELL Analytics)

This is a great chart that looks very confusing at first glance, but stay with me…

(CREDIT: WeatherBELL Analytics)

It shows the last 5 days of ECMWF (European model) runs; technically this is the average of all 51 members of each run. You are looking at maximum temperature forecast each 6 hours at PDX. The most recent run (today’s) is the last horizontal line (highlighted in yellow). I’ve put in S-M-T-W-TH-F-S-S to point out Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, etc… through next weekend. The beauty of this chart is that a forecaster can quickly look at any one day in the future and see what the model has been forecasting FOR THAT DAY over the past 10 runs. For example a few days ago (circled) this model was going extremely hot (102+) for Tuesday. But it backed off in later runs. The most important message here is that for day after day models have been forecasting the heat to begin Sunday, and continue through the end of next week.

There is a sliver of good news about next week. This will be a heatwave that features a shutdown of cooling onshore breezes, but no sign of a hot east wind coming down through the Gorge or off the Cascades. That’s good for fire weather. Much of next week will feature calm or just light wind conditions. With models generally forecasting 850mb temperatures at/below +25 (Celsius) and no easterly wind, it’ll be tough to get above 102 west of the Cascades. That’s good as well.

(kptv)

Without a dry east wind, the ocean beaches should be pretty comfortable during this upcoming week. I doubt 80s or 90s make it TO the beaches, but it’ll be hot just a few miles inland

(kptv)

And you can escape the heat (just barely) up around 4,000′ and above in the Cascades. These forecast numbers for Government Camp also work for all those mountain lakes (Lost, Timothy, Clear, Trillium, Laurance, etc…)

Hot weather ahead
Hot weather ahead(kptv)

We’ve enhanced and added content to our FOX12 WEATHER APP recently. Make sure you download it.

(kptv)

Plus we’ve got a fresh podcast out discussing the upcoming heat. You can find that on your regular Apple Podcasts feed or here: https://www.kptv.com/podcasts/weather/

That’s it for now, I probably won’t be posting again until the last day of July or August 1st. Enjoy your weekend! At least until it gets hot later Sunday afternoon.

86 Responses to Get ready to endure a week-long heatwave as July wraps up

  1. happymedium says:

    There was definitely just some thunder here in Tualatin! My midwestern heart is full of hope.

  2. Andrew says:

    Thunderstorm west of Albany…maybe things will get interesting this evening.

  3. tim says:

    Both gfs and euro agree to another heatwave this weekend into the following week.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      100 is not out of the question. There are two things I know:

      The intensity of the heatwave will increase
      The duration of the heatwave will increase

  4. Paul D says:

    When we have weather like we’ve had this past week, the 7-day forecast needs to include the humidity so we can know what the day will feel like.

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    Looking forward to cooler, cloudier conditions this coming week. The air around here is getting increasingly smoggy- we need some fresh ocean air-please!

  6. tim says:

    06z gfs is showing low 100’s around mid August, this current heatwave is just the appetizer.

  7. Opie says:

    I’m not 100% sure, but I think this will end up the 4th warmest month at Salem airport.
    July 2021: 73.3
    July 2015: 73.1
    August 2017: 73.0
    July 2022: 72.9

    Hopefully Mark will correct me if this is wrong.

    • Snomanski says:

      Note how recent they all are.

    • Snomanski says:

      If Sunday is 15 degrees above normal, that would bump it into first place, I think.

      • Opie says:

        72.9 was my prediction for the whole month, based on the first 29 days observed and the last two estimated.
        Now it’s looking like that was a tad conservative. I think this month will end up tied with August 2017.

        • Snomanski says:

          Plenty warm, no matter what. Meteorologically speaking, we now live in Roseburg. I never wanted to live in Roseburg.

        • Opie says:

          I remember back in 2012, after three cool and wet summers in a row, thinking that climate change was going to leave the PNW alone.
          Lately it seems like we’re in the bullseye – at least during the summer months.

  8. Weatherdan says:

    What a great day for a picnic with a hamburger and a cold brew. And maybe a dip in a cold pool. Summer rolls on. Peace.

  9. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Not only are we going to break the all-time 95+ streak with this heatwave, but we have a decent chance at tying the all-time 90+ streak. The sharp cooldown on Monday is now gone and Tuesday looks really warm too. Maybe 3 normalish days after that and then back to the 90s. What the absolute heck?

    We’re going to finish the month with a >3 degree positive temperature departure. June was +1. August will clearly be well above normal. There is no such thing as a cool or average summer anymore. It’s just not possible.

    • Zach says:

      I think it is way too early to call August.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        I wish I could agree, but the signal for warmth through at least the first half of the month outside of maybe a day or two next week (it keeps getting condensed) is very strong. There is just no way that the second half of August will be cool enough to bring the mean down to average or below.

  10. Opie says:

    Getting a little cloudy here in Salem. Maybe a thunderstorm?

  11. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    81 with a 70 degree dew point here. PDX is 88 with a 66 degree dew point. Gross stuff. This is turning out to be a pretty historic heatwave. Hotter than Phoenix for a full week in July. We should be proud.

    • tim says:

      Today’s cpc outlook is turning up the heat for mid August maybe will break more records, long hot August nights are upon us.

  12. Tanis Leach says:

    Last update from me (includes going beyond the 7 day): https://youtu.be/DXqZWICIG5s

    Technical info 1st comment.

    • Tanis Leach says:

      Technical Info: Me being aggressive Sunday seems to have paid off. For Portland, went 2 degrees above Euro ensemble due to how it performed recently, and how I don’t think the marine push will affect Portland too much temperature wise until Monday. I do think it will affect dew points, hence my 65-70 forecast on dew points on that day. Models have been super poor on dew points, so little trust in that. Corvallis went below for high temperatures. for the opposite reason (some marine push). Rest should be a given in the 7 day, except thunderstorms is up in the air (granted its what I’m weakest at). The beyond the 7 day was based off of the 12z models, so the newest data was not included since it was already in the editor and crashed 3 times. Assuming the trend at least holds and considering the conservative bias the models have beyond 7 days (at least Euro), have decided to say there is a pretty good chance of 90+ at least once from next Saturday-next Tuesday (worded kind of poorly in this video).

      • Bethany250ft says:

        Your videos are very informative and enjoyable to watch! It seems that the 850mb temp at Salem have verified warmer than most models showed, it hit 28.2°C a bit ago. Medford also hit 114°F. Turning out to be a pretty notable heatwave.

  13. Opie says:

    112 in Medford right now according to Weather.com 113 in Central Point.

  14. Weatherdan says:

    Currently 95 with a DP of 65!. Is this St. Louis? Looks like around 100 or so through Sunday then a 4 day stretch of low to mid 80,s before another heatwave starts around August 6th. Here’s to a White Christmas. Peace.

  15. runrain says:

    Temps possibly creeping back up around next weekend? The 10 day showed 92° for Aug 7. Am sure this will change before then.

    • Paul D says:

      It will probably go higher 😦

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      We are definitely headed towards another long stretch of above normal starting next weekend. And, as Paul mentioned, it will trend warmer as we get closer to it. Anyone that thinks otherwise hasn’t been paying attention the last decade or so. Ridging in the summer always overperforms.

      • tim says:

        Weather.com is cool bias long range then it plays ketchup once the event arrives so yes low 90’s now will end up being upper or higher once the event happens.

  16. Tanis Leach says:

    Some changes, but a shorter update: https://youtu.be/3lhIKawc2Ko

    Technical info 1st comment.

    • Tanis Leach says:

      Don’t think Friday and Saturday need explanations. Sunday went 97, which is below Euro mean, accounting for similar marine push to today. Noting that this is more aggressive than TV mets. Also 12z WRF had 96.3 for Portland furthering this evidence of mid to upper 90s. Possibly leaning higher, and almost went 99. We will see tomorrow.

  17. Bethany250ft says:

    SLE just had an 850mb temp of 28.2, beating the previous record in July which was 27.6. the previous all time record before June 2021 was 28.3 in Sept 1988. Crazy how close we got to that.

  18. Anonymous says:

    Some strong thundersnotrms in the cascaydes rihgt now

  19. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Tim, the good news is that we are losing over 2 minutes of daylight a day and meteorological autumn is just 35 days away. The heat will soon be a thing of the past and unrelenting cool, wet, and dark will persist for months on end. It sounds so refreshing to think about.

  20. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Don’t think we hit 95 today…

    • Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

      Humid though

      • Paul D says:

        I was washing my car in the shade at 7am and it was 68 degrees but the humidity makes it very annoying. Too much sweating for the amount of work I was doing.

  21. Weatherdan says:

    In his monthly weather blog Pete Parsons used 1971 as an analog year to this Summer. Interesting that he should cite that year because of how close they compare. In Spring of 1971 when I was 17 we had a Spring snowstorm in March. Then a very cold and wet Spring that lasted into June. In fact Summer arrived July 10th as opposed to June 19th in 2022. But from the 10th of July until the end of August it was unrelenting heat. September was average until around the 20th when it turned cool and wet. October brought cold and early mountain snow. Will weather history repeat itself? Unknown, but the correlation is interesting. 94 currently, headed to 101. Peace.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      I recall summer 1971 very well too- so it will be intresting to see how similar it will be, going into the rest of the year as well.

  22. tim says:

    Weather.com is trending warmer for the 7th thru the 11th with low 90s add other 10 degrees once we get to that time period.

  23. Tanis Leach says:

    Updated forecast with an analysis on the possible records broken (including the 95+ streak), defusing the hype on others, and an explanation of microclimates west of McMinnville and in Corvallis that have been, and will continue to affect their experience of this heatwave: https://youtu.be/z4BBwAFCQUw

    No more midterms, so technical info will be the first comment below this.

    • Tanis Leach says:

      Technical Info: Most forecasts I have done utilize model trends in some which way or form for a while, and since Fri-Sat-Sun has been trending higher, I’m going more aggressive than what I saw the TV meteorologists doing. 103 Friday I felt at the time was the right call (seeing the 0z Euro main, I still stand by 102 or 103, but if that trend continues in 12z, I’ll consider drop it tomorrow), especially when considering Tuesday outperformed all TV meteorologist’s forecasts with similar setup, but with higher 850 temps (I am aware it’s a shallow mixing ratio, so the potential temperature of 108 is unlikely). Sunday did 96 based on partial assumption of the trending upwards continuing (0z Euro at 99, may need to go 100+).

      In terms of the video: Brain doesn’t want to work right now after midterms for summer classes. I made the video hoping to be in the 7-9 min range, ended at 12. Tomorrow’s video I’m hoping for <5 min. There may be an unintended blooper, and sorry for the disorganization. Also, don’t do 36 miles on the bike in 90+, then run 10 miles 4 hours later (granted it cooled to 75°F due to the microclimate).

      • Bethany250ft says:

        Thank you for making these videos! The microclimates in the Willamette Valley are really interesting. One thing in my area I’ve noticed is the locally higher winds in east wind events, such as this example in Feb 2021;

        • Tanis Leach says:

          Your location is in one of the prime locations for east wind funneling, assuming it’s not weak enough for the west hills to block it (Feb 9, 2019), at least by judging off the map. Granted some of that may be down sloping too, amplifying the wind. Conversely, it makes your location one of the worst when it comes to cold air damming events (Jan 27, 2021). Also, thank you for the support.

        • Bethany250ft says:

          Jan 27th 2021 had a lot of snow in the air in my location but just a dusting on the ground. The wind can make snowstorms very fun! One question I had was whether in some cases the wind enhances precipitation, like January 2017? From the NWS snow totals map it looks like the highest totals were on/near the hills. I had 13″ with that storm!

      • JohnD says:

        Your detailed in depth video presentations rock, Tanis. Much appreciated and always so informative! We’ll really miss them after you graduate. Although maybe we’ll see you on TV then?!
        While you were riding, I was fence staining in the heat. That is until heat stress related concerns began to encroach and I came inside along with my wife’s urging!

        • Tanis Leach says:

          Who said I can’t do both after graduating? Also there’s master’s degree (knock on wood), so there’s 2-3 years more. Thank you for the support.

          Sorry to hear you got heat related stresses during fence staining. Stay safe out there.

  24. tim says:

    A brief cool down next week then another warm up. Of course I’ll be August by then you wouldn’t expect anything less than hot weather.

  25. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Muggy outside. Yuck!

  26. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Portland hit at least 95 today. The record is looking more and more likely as Sunday keeps trending warmer.

  27. tim says:

    A little muggy out there dew points in the low 70’s at my house other weather stations around my area are showing the same.

  28. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Looks like both Hillsboro and PDX have hit 101F. Salem 102F

  29. Weatherdan says:

    94 at 1:30PM on our way to 103. This would be our 4th day of 100 or more in 2022. Still better than the cool wet Spring we had for two months. I will treasure memories of the sunshine in November when some tv met says with a vacuous smile of the wet and nasty weather, well at least it’s good for the skiers. Peace.

  30. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    This heatwave is going to overperform like they always do. We might be close to 100 through the weekend. All-time 95+ streak in serious jeopardy. Remember a couple of days ago when it was “a normal mid-summer heatwave”? We’re literally going to be hotter than Phoenix for an entire week.

    • Bethany250ft says:

      Not sure about the 95+ record because it looks like a we’ll cool to the low 90s by Sunday. We’ll probably tie it at least though. But it’s looking likely we’ll beat the all time July 850mb temp at SLE at some point during this heatwave.

      • tim says:

        There’s always August to beat the record if not now, there are signs of another heatwave around mid to late month, Typically August is the hottest month of the year.

  31. Bethany250ft says:

    Since it’s the middle of summer and besides the heatwave, nothing too exciting is happening, I was wondering if people had any stories/snow totals from December 2008? I’ve heard about it a lot, but I didn’t live here back then. I found a link to some snow totals here: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/stormreports/winter2008.php
    Looks like my area might have had ~23″ that month?
    Also, there don’t seem to be many blog posts from that month here, is there any place to access them if they got deleted?

  32. Roland Derksen says:

    It’s fairly breezy here this evening , but the temperature is around 85F, so it’s a pretty warm wind. Tomorrow is supposed to be the hottest of the bunch- I’ll probably see a temperature in the low or possibly mid-90’s (33-35C).

  33. Tanis Leach says:

    Only video on this that I’m making: https://youtu.be/-LdKBh9zW0M

    No technical info. I need to get my run done, make some food, and going back into insanity mode known as summer midterms week.

  34. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    This ain’t no dry heat

  35. tim says:

    Gotta admit we been spoiled rotten with cool weather so far but now it’s pay back time were due for a long hot second half of summer and current climate models support that thru September.

  36. tim says:

    Cpc is showing below normal temperature 8-14 period but it’s August by then so most likely will see our hottest weather of the season I’m expecting 100+ for Seattle, this week warm snap is just a preview of what’s to come.

  37. Tanis Leach says:

    The thing that has me concerned is that I’ve noticed the 850s have been trending upwards the last 3 runs. 12z Euro ensemble average had 26C for Portland both Wednesday and Thursday (27.5 is the record in July or August). I know we can’t tap into that fully since the mixing layer seemingly will be shallow (about 850-875 mb ceiling) but that is still plenty close. Context: 26C temperature potential at 1014 mb (12z Euro ensemble prediction) assuming no super-adiabic stuff (E wind, UHI, some more complicated things I won’t mention here) is 107F. Not forecasting 107, but a concerning trend.

    Marys River is looking mighty appealing for a 10am post run/post midterm wade in (there is one place I will not disclose that is only 18 inches deep)

    • Bethany250ft says:

      I’m not an expert at all but could onshore flow/humidity cap that temperature?

      • Tanis Leach says:

        Yes it can. Especially if it produces a cloud layer. Though humidity has less of an effect than onshore flow.

        • Bethany250ft says:

          Thankfully models are now showing a clearer end to the heatwave, we might only have 5/6 95+ days rather than 7+

    • Bethany250ft says:

      The 00z Euro ensemble average 850mb temp peaks at 27.0 at Portland now it seems, I was hoping the trend would go away, but I guess not.

      • Tanis Leach says:

        The only good thing is that there seems to be a slight onshore flow component that will keep the temperatures lower, however its so weak that the Coast Range blocks most of it (less so as you go south since its narrower).

        • Bethany250ft says:

          Yeah it’s good there’s no offshore flow. 00z ECMWF shows 850mb temps peaking at 27.8 (Ensemble mean at 27.1) so it hasn’t backed off yet. It also shows the heat extending into next week which is a bit worrying.

  38. PNW Native says:

    I want some thunderstorms at some point if we have to endure this heat and humidity.

  39. Bethany250ft says:

    If Weather.com’s forecast verifies, we’ll beat the record for most 95+ days in a row. We might have two record setting heat waves two years in a row. The models were also showing extreme heat east of the Cascades.

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