Pleasant July weather until further notice, plus slow fire season start…so far

10pm Thursday…

It seems quite far back now that many of us were complaining about the rainy weather. I was talking about slug bait, no staining of the deck, and waiting to plant some of my veggies. Now, looking back, it’s obvious our seasonal (and normal) summer dry spell began on June 19th this year. We’ve only seen one wet day since that time…July 6th. This is about as normal as it gets folks! The remarkably reliable switch from “regularly wet” to “unusually dry” happened right on time. That also means it’s the slowest time of the year for meteorologists. July through September is quite boring for the forecasts around here. A good time to take vacation (I just did) and you’ll notice very few weather blog posts during this time. My family and I camped at both Trillium and Paulina lakes last weekend and early this week. I made it about 3/4 of the way around the Newberry Crater rim bike trail. Quite the view!

Dry weather continues
Dry weather continues(kptv)

Temperatures are running just a bit above average for July, and June was near normal.

Dry weather continues

This summer is NOT turning into a repeat of those cool summers of 2010 and 2011. I was thinking it might happen after the excessively wet/cool April & May, but apparently not. This loop shows 500 millibar heights over the next 2 weeks.

Warming atmosphere in late July
Warming atmosphere in late July

Notice we have a weak upper-level trough (brings in cooler marine air) this weekend, then the hot upper level high over the Rockies pushes closer to us through the next 10 days or so. I see increasing orange/red that last week of the month. This is the ECMWF (European) model ensemble forecast; average of 51 ensemble members. The GFS and GEM models are similar through the next two weeks. This implies we have somewhat typical temperatures over the next week, then it MAY turn hotter as we head into the last week of July. Most important; there’s no sign of unusually cool upper-level troughing across the Pacific Northwest. And that means little or no rain. Notice the ensemble average total rain for the next 2 weeks is basically spots of marine drizzle. Less than .10″ for most models

Dry weather continues
Dry weather continues

To summarize: real summer weather (warm and dry) continues the next couple of weeks. But no sign of a heatwave for at least the next week.

This is good news for fire season 2022. The Pacific Northwest is at Level 1 Preparedness Level, a bit below average. Last year we went all the way to Level 5 by mid-July and stayed there for two months! You can check out all the previous years back to 2005 here: https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/content/products/intelligence/NW%20PL%20YTD%20&%20Historical%20Charts.pdf

Dry weather continues

There has only been one large fire in Oregon so far this season. That was 40,000 acres way over southeast of Baker City…mainly on range land.

Dry weather continues

I don’t see a setup for widespread thunderstorms over the next week, that’s also good news. The result will be fuels continuing to dry as the month progresses. I have seen years where we have little or no fire activity in July and then August goes wild. It’s all about the temperatures and thunderstorms. We will see.

That’s it for now…enjoy your dry summer weather!

36 Responses to Pleasant July weather until further notice, plus slow fire season start…so far

  1. Zach says:

    The euro and the gfs seem to be converging towards the middle for next weeks heatwave. Still really hot and a 2-3 100+ days seem likely but I don’t think exceeding 105 looks as likely now.

  2. Roland Derksen says:

    So far, it seems like pretty normal summer weather over the next 2 weeks. We may see some pretty warm temperatures but nothing exceptional.

  3. tim says:

    There’s still time for models to go even higher with temps during nextweek heatwave , currently showing 100S for portland and mid 90s for seattle.

  4. Patrick says:

    Last week of July and the first two weeks in August, typically are the hottest weeks in the Northwest. If this high stays to the southeast and an upper level low sets up shop off the California coast, maybe a good thunderstorm pattern , although it looks like this high is right over Oregon, hot weather.

  5. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    18z GFS on board with triple digits.

    • Zach says:

      At this point I would be shocked if we don’t end up with a few days in the 100s.

  6. Weatherdan says:

    Great day for work in the garden, sunny and 85. We all knew the heat would come this Summer. It always does anymore. Still it won’t be humid like most of the rest of the country so we should consider ourselves lucky. Enjoy the Summer now for within 3 months it will most likely be wet and cool. Peace.

  7. Zach says:

    Honestly, what the h***. There is a massive disconnect between the euro and the gfs.

    PDX Monday 25th

    GFS: 82F
    Euro: 106F (LOL)

    That is only 6 days out and a 24F spread between the models.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      The 12z Euro ensemble run is pretty crazy hot. 7+ days with 850mb temps above 20c. The operational is of course even hotter until it’s end 10 days out. I’m leaning towards the operational. The ensemble mean is brought down by a few straggling members that have almost no chance of verifying.

      The GFS is quite a bit cooler with the ridge slightly further west, but still gives us a long heat wave.

      • Zach says:

        I think it is wise to just expect the worst. Last year set a completely new standard so none of this seems unlikely to me. Although last year it was the gfs that outperformed the Euro as I recall. It latched onto the trend like 8 days out showing extreme heat.

  8. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    12z euro lmao

  9. Zach says:

    Idk, the Euro is just going nuts. Back to crazy temps above 105 for Tuesday. Not sure I trust it because it is fluctuating like 10 degrees between runs while the gfs is much more stable.

  10. Roland Derksen says:

    Well, it looks like we’re done with the clouds and showers now- the next week will be sunny and warm. Could see temperatures up near 90F by the end of the week.

  11. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    The Euro backed down to 101 next Tuesday and back to the 90s on Wednesday. Looks to me like the most realistic scenario is 7+ days at >90 including maybe 1 or 2 around 100. The 6z GFS delays the heat a little, but then is hotter than previous runs. July is going to end on a very hot note.

  12. Weatherdan says:

    Patchy AM clouds allowed us to drop to 52. 74 and sunny at 1:00PM. On our way to 84 today and 92 Tuesday. Peace.

  13. Zach says:

    12z GFS shortened the prospective heatwave. Hope it continues to trend that way.

    • Zach says:

      The 12z Euro gives us hell next week lol.

      • Andrew says:

        yeah! doesn’t euro usually undershoot temps by a few degrees too? If that’s case, 100-105 seems possible by midweek.

        • Andrew says:

          Worth noting, a pretty big discrepancy between Euro and GFS. The latter “only” gives us mid to upper 90s.

        • Tanis Leach says:

          If its undershooting, then it looks like 107-110 is possible. The PDX weather analysis group just posted a picture showing all the models with the Euro at 110°F on Tuesday the 27th (ensemble mean 104°F). The all model mean is at 96°F.

          Looks like this will be summer 9 in a row above the climate trendline.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        The Euro and GFS ensembles are much cooler than the operational runs. The Euro operational is the second hottest member. The control is way up there too.

        Either way, it’s going to be hot for a while. The Euro operational is just ridiculous. Back to back 105 degree days next week. And that’s with a cool bias. Extreme heat seems to verify more often that not, so I’m betting on two 100+ days bookended by a bunch of 90s.

        • Zach says:

          Yeah, I am convinced 3-5 90+ days are highly likely. I think this Euro run might be a pretty extreme solution though since it is fluctuating massively between runs. Hopefully the 00z is more like the GFS.

        • Zach says:

          The sad thing is back to back 105F days still pales in comparison to last year.

  14. Roland Derksen says:

    Feels like we’re right back into a “June-like’ pattern here; I’ve seen showers the past few days. Not heavy ,but they are there under cloudy skies. Not my favourite kind of summer weather, but it’s better than the heat they’re getting over in Europe.

  15. Zach says:

    The weather channel shows a lot of 90+ days in the 7-14 day range. Must be unusually high ensemble agreement that far out.

    • tim says:

      That far out and showing 90’s you just know it’s gonna be even warmer than that once we get to that time period, The door slammed shut on any possibility of a cool summer for those who were hoping.

      • Zach says:

        I actually agree. Might turn into one of those week long heat waves like we had in Summer 2018.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        There is no such thing as a cool summer anymore. All we can do is brace ourselves for the worst and hope we can avoid extreme heat, drought, and fires.

        I hope consistent rain appears by September. I would bet against it.

  16. JohnD says:

    110’ forecast high in LAS tomorrow. Hot even for them—but not at all uncommon at certain points during many summers there.
    It still is utterly amazing that the all time official high in Las Vegas @ 117’ is only one degree higher than the 116’ @ PDX.

  17. tim says:

    It’s only a matter of time before we get some extreme heat this summer we’ve been spoiled so far with normal temps but there are signs of hot weather late July and early August, finally.

    • tim says:

      Or should I say unspoiled for those who like the heat, it’s been a terrible spring we need the hot weather.

  18. Weatherdan says:

    This is about as great a weather pattern as you can get around here. Sunny and warm but not too hot. Pleasant nights. Warm but not too warm too sleep. My vegetable garden is catching up with where it should be so I am happy. 88 yesterday and 85 today. Can’t ask for a better night to watch a baseball game. Peace.

  19. OC550 says:

    I’ve got no complaints about the weather so far this summer. Nice to get the rain in the spring and now enjoying summertime temps. I don’t love temps above 90, but as long as we don’t have many strung together and can avoid 100’s, I’m fine. A rather nice summer in my opinion.

  20. JERAT416 says:

    I’m loving this weather. Stay safe out there everyone!

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