Great early summer weather pattern, but cooler with shower chance for holiday weekend

8pm Thursday…

June is just about to wrap up this evening and we’re headed into July. Temperatures this month ended up a little WARMER than average, not cooler. The heat wave really balanced out the cool weekend temps. Actually that was the main feature…4 weekends of cool/wet weather with some pretty nice weather on many weekdays.

Of course we haven’t seen rain now in 11 days, the longest dry stretch since early last September.

Yes, it’s time to start watering your lawns even though it’s hard to believe that’s the case after one of the wettest springs on record. The “faucet” has suddenly just shut off. We ended up with about double our typical June rain, and 7th wettest June in Portland.

The heatwave last weekend turned out almost exactly as expected with mid-upper 90s for 3 consecutive days. We just barely squeaked in under 100 degrees last Sunday

WHAT’S AHEAD?

The holiday weekend is just about here. Do you realize we haven’t seen measurable rain in 14 years on the 4th of July? In fact my kids (20 and 21) haven’t experienced a “wet Independence Day” yet! The last cool/showery holiday was back in 1999

This week has been nice with temperatures running near normal; a steady onshore flow of cool marine air is keeping the weather from turning hot. But now an upper-level low pressure area (a disturbed area of weather high overhead) is heading down into the Pacific Northwest. It’ll be directly overhead late Sunday into early Monday.

When that happens, temperatures cool and the chance for rain goes up. But this system seems a bit different; a bit more “moisture-starved” compared to recent setups. So I don’t think we’re talking a bit soaker west of the Cascades. In fact check out the rain forecast from the ECMWF and GEM models from now through Tuesday.

The main effect over the holiday weekend will be a very strong onshore flow. Lots of clouds west of the Cascades with below normal temps, but not much rain. Maybe just sprinkles or a light shower here and there.

Are you are headed to the Cascades, Gorge, or Central/Eastern Oregon this weekend? Watch out for thunderstorms starting Saturday afternoon. An upper-level low offshore means southerly or southwesterly flow overhead. Straight southerly flow should bring showers and thunderstorms up along the Cascade crest Saturday night through Sunday morning. Of course those storms/showers would cruise right over the the top of the central/eastern Gorge during that time too. I think any thunder west of the Cascades is unlikely and we’ll be sitting under a thick marine layer during that time too. If you’re camping in the Cascades, I’m thinking a cooldown over the weekend too

The coastline looks quite mellow this weekend, but with the thick marine layer it’ll be tough to find lots of sunshine.

Later next week will be a battle between the very hot “4 Corners High” and cool weather offshore.

We may end up in the perfect spot; enough onshore flow to keep the heat away, but not too much that would keep us mainly cloudy. We will see…enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

57 Responses to Great early summer weather pattern, but cooler with shower chance for holiday weekend

  1. Roland Derksen says:

    Showers on the forecast horizon here this weekend. Doesn’t look like much, but it’ll keep the dust down, at least

  2. Weatherdan says:

    81 at 2:00PM headed for 86. What a nice day weatherwise with more to come. Peace.

  3. Weatherdan says:

    How quickly we forget what Mark said in June about the Summer. How it wouldn’t stay crummy all Summer. Well he was right and so were the others who said Summer would get here. Here’s to you Mark and the others who didn’t panic. Now let’s hope it stays nice until October. And it just might. 77 at 1:00PM. On our way to 84. Peace.

    • West Linn 200 says:

      I don’t recall anyone questioning that. I think it was universally accepted that July is when the faucet tends to shut off. The complaint was that June was a predominantly crappy month for outdoor activities, which was true. Honestly I wish there was a nice down-pour right about now to delay the hellfire season in August.

  4. tim says:

    82 today at my house today, brrr compare to 91 in pdx can’t wait for Seattle first 100 this summer it will happen I will it.

  5. tim says:

    There are still signs of a late July heatwave hopefully it will happen if not there’s always August we deserve it after a fridge spring.

  6. Zach says:

    Nice cool down tonight

  7. runrain says:

    Already 107° at Death Valley at 8am.

  8. tim says:

    I find it hard to believe it’s 77 In Portland at midnight when it’s 60 at my house at the same time clearly there’s a glitch in the current obs.

  9. tim says:

    12z gfs is showing 95 to 100 for Seattle late July even higher for Portland the weeklies euro was right, we really need the heat to make up for a cool spring, finally.

    • Zach says:

      Way too far out to make predictions yet.

      • tim says:

        Yes, but most likely it will happen 100+ is becoming more likely each year now due to climate change.

        • Zach says:

          We have been getting more 90+ days over the past few decades however there isn’t really significant increase in 100+ days. The 2020s might change that though.

  10. Roland Derksen says:

    Perfect summer day here- sunny skies with temperatures probably ending up in the low 80’s. That’s what one should expect in the PNW this time of year. However, I’m also recalling a much different scenario here on this date(and the 12th) 50 years ago. We had a really heavy rainfall on those 2 days back in’72; most likely it was an AR. In any event we had 3-4 inches in the city (Vancouver BC) over 48 hours.It was WAY heavier just north of us in the mountains: Hollyburn Ridge (a ski resort during the winter) recorded 10.28 inches for the total amount. Just incredible! I was old enough to vaguely remember it- these figures were from what I’ve found online years later.

  11. Weatherdan says:

    As I have expected we are now starting to warm to above normal fairly slowly. Our maximum average is still slightly below for July. But by the end of the month we should be somewhat above average. I expect that August and September will also be somewhat above average. What I don’t see is a blazing hot Summer. 85 at Noon. Upper 90,s for today. Peace.

  12. tim says:

    Rapid warmup from 75 today to near 90 Monday impressive temp change, something you would see in the Midwest not so much here.

  13. tim says:

    Seattle only had three days at or above 80 this year were way behind were we should be but still lot of summer left I’m sure well get our quota in before fall arrives we need it.

  14. Roland Derksen says:

    Another cloudy start to the day here, but this weather is okay with me- temperatures in the afternoons have been up in the mid-70’s. Perfect for going on bike rides, doing outdoor work or whatever.

    • Anonymous says:

      lucky, u must be in cascades or something becaus here in valley i got 85 degres at my home

    • Paul D says:

      Topping out at 80 at my place in Hillsboro. Loved the cloud cover this morning so I could do some work on my deck without melting.

  15. Weatherdan says:

    Unless one is a skier which I’m not I have no reason to contemplate Winter at this time. I just want a nice sunny warm Summer until mid October. Then I expect the weather to be crummy anyway so I won’t complain about the endless rain and dreariness. As for those of you who want an epic Winter I too would like to see some snow and cold in a few months. But I don’t want to contemplate it on such a nice day. Chill dude, your time for snow will be here-just not now. Peace.

  16. Roland Derksen says:

    Showers this morning ended by 8am- but my count for the month now is 1.22 inches. That’s more than July 2021 and 2020 combined, and we’re only into the first week! However, I’ll calm down; I’ve seen this scenario many times before. Early July is often a carryover from June. We’ll see a change by mid-month.

  17. tim says:

    Odds are increasing with for potential extreme heat mid month cpc has slight risk on there hazard outlook, well see.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      Looks like a couple of hot days early next week and then quickly back to near normal indefinitely. We could get close to 100 on Monday.

      Let’s start talking about the triple dip La Niña coming up. Epic winter incoming. Hopefully summer is done by early September this year.

      • tim says:

        It looks marginal at best, I think a cool neutral is more likely we see are biggest weather events during neutral years anyways.

        • Anonymous says:

          decnebmer 20016, janurary 2017, feburary 2021, december 2008, and decmember 3021 want to have a word with you.

      • Opie says:

        Yeah, my prediction of a warmish neutral ENSO by fall is not looking good.

        • tim says:

          With a warm PDO now, our nights should be warmer then normal, the blob is back.

  18. Roland Derksen says:

    Unlike you folks south of the border, I can’t count on the summer switch usually turning on after the 4th- some of my heaviest rainfalls in July have come after that date.However, I’ll watch for it after tomorrow- this year, anyway.

  19. JERAT416 says:

    Rain in July (when there are no wildfires burning) – ZERO stars.

  20. West Linn 200 says:

    Woohoo I don’t have to water today! A day or two of light rain each week would be so nice

    • Anonymous says:

      this isnt enough rain to watar youre yard u know that?

      • Peter Christenson says:

        I think after my .24″ last night I can take a day off from watering.

      • West Linn 200 says:

        Not sure what you got, but I had a nice downpour yesterday around noon and more rain in the evening. It was absolutely enough rain to water for the day.

  21. Weatherdan says:

    If the weather pattern we had from April to Mid June had happened 2 or 3 months earlier we would have had a grand Winter indeed. Nevertheless I am only too happy to see it gone. I am looking forward to some fine Summer weather ahead. Peace.

  22. JERAT416 says:

    Summer starts July 7th this year ……?

  23. Jim says:

    78 degrees. What a glorious day for all the bbqs. Sky a deep blue. As often is the case in summer best weather in the whole country

    • Gene says:

      It was a beautiful day, especially considering that earlier forecasts for the 4th had weather conditions being cool, cloudy and showery. This day turned out to be much, much better than that.

  24. Weatherdan says:

    Some July heat is looking more possible today. After the big holiday weekend forecast bust. All the Portland tv mets had us at 72-74 today (as of 7,1). Instead we are likely to have a maximum of 82 with wall to wall sunshine and no precipitation this entire weekend. Now looking ahead to this week I see partly cloudy and 76-79 both Tuesday and Wednesday and mainly dry. Then a long run of 80,s or hotter starting Thursday. What I don’t see at this time is triple digits in the next 16 days. Of course this may change. Peace.

  25. Roland Derksen says:

    As of noon today, I’ve received 0.81 inches of rainfall. That’s actually a bit less than i expected, but already we have about half of what an average July in total gets!

  26. tim says:

    The latest euro weeklies are showing a big heatwave by late July 90’s for Seattle and since the euro is cool bias I think 100+ is possible but that’s still why out in la la land we are due for a hot July, 2009 was the last time Seattle hit 100+ in July.

  27. Randy says:

    Mark

    Are you sure it didn’t rain or at least shower 4th of July 2000 or 2001? I remember that specifically because I went down to see the circus at the waterfront there and it was raining. Correct me if I’m wrong sir.

  28. Roland Derksen says:

    Quite a bit of rain here for tomorrow’s forecast. We could see a soaker up to an inch. That’s not unusual- we often get one heavy day of rain in early July.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Rain started here a few minutes after 7am this morning, but it’s been mostly very light. Temperatures are cool, though- i have a present reading of about 59F.

  29. Weatherdan says:

    Next 16 look mainly to be 83-88. No heat waves but a few degrees above average. Perfect July weather. I expect some heat later this month as we gradually warm. We seem to have finally broken out of our cool and wet Springtime pattern. Enjoy the neighborhood fireworks displays. I know I will. Peace.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I wish 88 was going to be the upper limit. Looking like a week-long stretch of 90s possible starting after next weekend. Trending warmer.

      • tim says:

        Looks like the 4 corners high is gonna win this battle, not surprised of course bring on heat.

  30. Nate’s Mom says:

    Sounds like it will be a good weekend. My wonderful son Nate is taking me to the rodeo on Sunday, so hopefully no rain. I did make sure he got us seats under the cover, because originally I wanted to be in the shade, but that doesn’t seem like a big concern now. It will be nice that it won’t be hot. I’ll have Nate give me an updated forecast on Saturday. He’s become quite good at making forecasts, he’s learned so much from his weather group friends. He spends so much time online and lately in person with them. Such a smart boy.

  31. tim says:

    I’m betting on the 4 corner high giving us hot weather that’s been the case for years now as it been moving further north with climate change.

    • Paul D says:

      I’ve never seen the term “4 corner high” until this blog. Please enlighten me. Thanks!

      • Zach says:

        Dominant high pressure centered over the SW

      • Mike says:

        I lived in AZ for 37 years. The 4-corners high establishes itself this time of year and catches the moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico (easterly wind shift with the N. Am. monsoon) and pulls it up from the Mexico Sierra Madres into the desert SW. The hot weather, the instability, and the moisture combine to give S. Az half its annual rainfall in about 2 months, if that). They are on the edge, so further north, Phoenix gets about 1/2 the rainfall, and not infrequently, the monsoon may not do much at all. The high wobbles around a lot, but the 4-corners is what gives the deep easterly to southeasterly flow.

        I’ve seen 1.3 inches in an hour with the T-storms, which aren’t the 50K feet ones that Tornado Alley gets. But they sure put on a good light show, and AZ ranks about 3rd behind FL and NM for lightning days I think. The humidity is only about 30%, but with a dew point in the mid 50s to as much as 70 and ppt. water often in the 1.5-2 inch range (very uncommon here), it can really dump.

        The desert, being rather impervious to water, sheds it, and that is why there are major floods, and the “stupid motorist rule,” which means if you drive around a barricade and get stuck, you pay the bill.

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