Spring wrap-up plus a very wet June start

10pm Friday…

June is here and it is STILL wet.

That said, the last 3 days were quite nice with temperatures peaking around 80 each day and dry for most of us. Portland made it to 81 degrees Thursday, one of the latest “first 80 degree days” we’ve seen

Meteorological spring has ended and we are now officially in summer in the northern hemisphere. June, July, & August are the warmest months so that’s summer. The big question: was it the wettest and coolest spring on record? Not at all. Yes, a bit cool, and wetter than normal, but not a “record-setter”. Take a look at the temperatures in Portland

March-May was only a bit below average because March was so mild. If you take JUST April plus May, it was in the top 1/3 coolest springs, but not near the record. In both Portland and Salem, it was the coolest spring since 2012 or 2011. What’s most interesting is that temperatures this spring were more/less considered “normal” during the cool decades of the 1950s through 1970s. We were warmer before and of course after that time. For someone between my age and 80 years old, this spring was a bit of a “meh, I’ve seen it before” sort of thing. How about precipitation?

It was Portland’s 8th wettest spring and wettest since 2017. Once again, not THAT bad because a drier than normal March is brought into the average. If we once again take just April plus May? Wettest since 1996 in Portland and wettest since 1993 in Salem. Both cities picked up around 9.50″ rain in those two months. For fun, I added up some REALLY big numbers. Astoria saw 13″ rain in those two months. Detroit Lake 28.04″! That’s over two feet of rain in two months. That’s why there are so many large & green trees on the west slopes of the Cascades. Log Creek, a weather station in Portland’s Bull Run Watershed (across the ridge from Lost Lake) was similar; 25.40″ precipitation since April 1st. It’s been an amazing two months of recovery over much of the region.

The reason we’ve been so wet and cool is that we haven’t seen any sort of persistent upper-level ridging in the atmosphere overhead. So a (weak) May and now early June jet stream can still send weather systems our way.

IT APPEARS THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-9 DAYS. There’s no sign of a sustained warm/dry period through the first 10+ days of June.

This evening we’ve got a relatively strong jet stream aimed at the West Coast. Look at the “Integrated Vapor Transport” showing all the moisture headed our way.

By tomorrow evening, a 150mph jet stream is sending moisture directly into the region. That’s up around 30,000′…strong for June.

So we’ve got a strong jet stream, plenty of moisture, and it’s warm-ish. That means the potential is there for significant rainfall this weekend. Latest models are sending several surges of rain inland tonight through Sunday evening. The heaviest should be Saturday evening and overnight into early Sunday morning. Evening GFS model gives all areas west of the Cascades 0.50″ to 1.50″ rain by Sunday evening!

Other models are a little heavier, or have the heaviest rain in different areas.

Regardless. ALL parts of the region will get at least some rain this weekend, just like last weekend. Our latest GRAF model shows 1/4″ to 1/2″ rain in even the driest parts of Central and North-Central Oregon by Monday morning…excellent news for you folks!

So…hunker down for the weekend, put out some more slug bait around your favorite flowers, and get ready for at least a few nicer weather days once again next week. At least no worries about fire weather!

I’ll be down at the Starlight Parade on Saturday evening and I’m expecting a soaker. Remember our coverage (on TV) starts at 8pm, probably the best place to enjoy the floats and bands!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Spring wrap-up plus a very wet June start

  1. JERAT416 says:

    I echo what some of you said, this is WAY better than 116 degrees ! I certainly am more than ready for a stable summer pattern, but this is setting us up well for not needing to water west of the cascades for a while. Water supplies are looking great including Detroit lake!

  2. Wendy Benke says:

    Summer?

  3. Weatherdan says:

    Way back in 1971 when I was 17 we had a weather pattern very similar to this. A wet and somewhat cool spring with only 4 days over 80 until the 11th of July. Then Summer arrived and we had 7 very hot weeks of weather. September and October were about average. For 1971 it was an average Summer. So don’t freak out about the lack of heat. It will come. In the meantime just take it as it comes because what else can you do. Peace.

    • UGH says:

      It’s not the heat per say…. just the gloomy, rainy, cool. We’ve had that since basically October. I’m tired of it. I need blues skies and sunshine.(yeah the last few days were nice, but what’s the reward? An AR….)

  4. tim says:

    Some good news la Nina has officially ended current 3.4 region is -0.490 C. according to tropical tidbits daily sst updates, now we just gotta wait for the atmosphere to respond.

  5. JERAT416 says:

    My instinct is this will be like one of the years I remember when July comes and suddenly after being cool on and off, a stable sunny and warm pattern arrives and stays.

  6. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Looking at long-term ensembles, had we not hit 80 on the 2nd, we might have made it to July with no 80s. Too much time left to say if we will get there again in June with any degree of certainty, but it looks improbable in at least the next 10 days.

  7. Timmay on queen st says:

    AR coming. Buy cases of Pepsi buy cases of coke. Burn the tree be free.

  8. tim says:

    Come July it will be like we never even had a cool wet spring, the heat is on.the cfs is very bullish with the heat a sight for sale eyes thank God.

    • tim says:

      Sore eyes.

      • Roland Derksen says:

        As a seasoned weather observer in the PNW, I can say with confidence that the weather is bound to change- sooner or later. However, sometimes things have to first get worse before they get really better. This AR is occurring now, and after it’s over we’ll see what happens. Could be July, when the heat comes. And, after that we might have a long stretch of dry weather through August and September-BUT that’s just a guess on my part, based on past experience.

    • Jim says:

      Month after month after month you talk about heat coming. When it does get hot you’ll say told you so. Enough already

      • tim says:

        Because typically enso has zero effect on our summer weather including la Nina which is now dead by the way. July and August are always warmer than normal historically.

        • Jim says:

          Ok if July and August are always warmer then normal then that means normal isn’t what it says or….someone help me with this before I lose my mind

        • Chris says:

          Tim, unless Yogi Berra posted when I wasn’t looking…that last sentence might be the best line I’ve ever read on this blog.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Haha, Jim and Chris. Yea, the always warmer than normal doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

  9. Opie says:

    1st week of summer at PDX
    1991-2020 average: 62.3 F
    2022: 64.0 F

    https://www.weather.gov/pqr/cliplot

    • West Linn 200 says:

      God I hate that website’s interface so much. It’s not intuitive at all relative to web standards of the last decade. They need a UI face-lift badly.

      Anyway, if you’re looking at the same thing I am, that’s the average of the entire day; low and high. That’s not the average high temperature. If you look at the observed high temperatures for the first week of June in the past decade for example, it’s typically over 70 degrees.

      • Opie says:

        Yeah those are daily averages.

        Average high for the first week of June, 1991-2020: 72.1
        This June: 72.7

        • Opie says:

          I’m okay with the graphics, what bugs me is I can’t find a similar chart for other states.

  10. boydo3 says:

    18″ of rain for the months of April and May here on the south coast of Oregon. La Nina continues…

  11. Scott Reeves says:

    Chance of snow anytime soon?

  12. Roland Derksen says:

    This morning I finally got to see something I haven’t seen since March 9th; Clear skies! I know, it’s not going to last: I’ve already seen the first few whisps of cirrus advancing from the west!

  13. tim says:

    Current 3.4 region is -0.579 and rising rapidly via tropical tidbits the heat is coming finally, Cliff mass was completely wrong about a la Nina summer😁.

  14. MasterNate says:

    The negative PDO still holding strong sitting at -2.30 for the month of May. Coldest in May since 1950. FWIW.

  15. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    The Euro also had us getting over 1.5” of rain this weekend. We got less than 1/3rd of that. So, forgive me for putting zero stock in a forecast 1-2 months out.

  16. tim says:

    The latest euro weeklies are showing above normal heights for July and August so hang there warm weather fans there’s still hope.

  17. Weatherdan says:

    Salem received .66 of rain between 4:00PM Friday and 3:00PM Sunday. As it is now partly sunny and 72 i don’t see much more in store for us. This week I expect about the same Monday as Sunday then 74-84 Tuesday- Sunday with about .25 of rain. Fairly average for June. Peace.

  18. Ken in Wood Village says:

    The atmosphere is getting active. Don’t be surprised if you get under a heavy downpour and see lightning 🙂

  19. happymedium says:

    Already 60 at 9 am! Should be a lovely day, no matter how much it rains.

  20. UGH says:

    This weather is literally the worst. Non-stop dreary, cool, wet days pilled on top of more gross, wet and gray days. I know everyone on here disagrees but the Willamette Valley weather sucks…. no doubt about it. (Yes I’ve been to and lived in other places, no I did not just move here from some sunny place). We’ve finally had enough, selling our house and moving to Central Oregon. You rain and cloud lovers can have it, I’m done with Portland.

    • Opie says:

      Central Oregon is an arid wasteland. I’d be on antidepressants within a few weeks if I was for some reason forced to live there.

      • Opie says:

        Not really, but I would definitely miss the greenery of the west side.

      • UGH says:

        It’s better than staring at clouds and being soaked for 8 or more months a year. Talk about depressing the Willamette Valley is the most depressing place I’ve ever lived. People checking the 10 day just to get a glimpse of the sun and some warmth…. ridiculous.

    • West Linn 200 says:

      Yuck. You moved to Central Oregon because of one wet year? Have you not been paying attention to the smoke maps during wildfire season? Better pack some respirators. Good luck to you.

      I would have chosen another state entirely if anything.

      • UGH says:

        No, I’m moving because of 24 wet and cloudy years. 2 months of “summer” and sunshine doesn’t cut it. I’ve never seen so many people defend such depressing weather as I have in Portland. Not everyone likes rain and clouds, especially when it carries over into the “drier and sunnier” season.

        • West Linn 200 says:

          24 cold and wet years lmao… I guess we’re just going to forget about the last 5 years or so of nice weather from March – October, let alone last year’s unprecedented dry and sunny stretch.

          Whatever makes you happy.

        • Tim D. Williams says:

          Agree with UGH, lived in Portland 30 yrs and moved to Redmond last fall. Never going back. Too many outdoor activities in Central Oregon to enjoy and not be worried about being rained out all the time. Tired of the what’s happening in downtown as well. The whole picture of Portland is going the wrong way. Several of my friends are looking to move out here as well. It’s not for everyone but let’s not pretend the weather in Portland is just fine.

        • Opie says:

          I’m crazy about Forest Park. You can hike there rain or shine all year long – equally enjoyable. Dozens of loops to choose from.

          More than makes up for any and all of Portland’s negatives IMO.

        • Opie says:

          80 miles of interconnected trails.

        • Roland Derksen says:

          Don’t move north, what ever you do. It only gets worse! 🙂

    • Weathergal says:

      I see you have never been to Chicago. Recently went and we had cold rain and wind, hot weather and a hot wind with humidity. I will take Oregon any day!

      • UGH says:

        I’ve been, at least they have true seasons. Y’all want to believe Portland’s weather is so great comparatively to other places, it’s almost funny at this point. There hasn’t been a truly nice week of weather in the last few months and you think that’s ok? I had friends visit in October from Colorado and were like “How do you live here, it’s terrible!”. After this year I concur, the Willamette Valley weather is terrible.

        • tim says:

          That’s because we’re in a la Nina year regarding the cool wet spring, apparently that 116 last summer wasn’t good enough.

        • UGH says:

          @Tim:

          Haha you think I want 116 degree days? (It was also 1 weekend, let’s not be obtuse, it’s not like we had 3 months of 100+ weather). Sunshine, blue skies and nice stretches of good weather, which is definitely lacking here, is all I want. But, please tell me how whatever models your looking at is saying it’s “going to be a long hot summer…” that’s all you’ve been saying for months. I don’t care if it’s a La Niña year, the weather here is terrible plain and simple. Keep wish casting, you’ll be right one of these years.

    • JJ78259 says:

      I second that impression!

      • tim says:

        Mark said last summer was the hottest one on record for Salem and Portland and we have several summers in a row now that we’re above normal that’s a fact just look at the records. I want hot weather too but sometimes you have to take the bad with the good it will warm up this summer just hang in there.

  21. tim says:

    Well it turns out weatherwx.com is total crap it was completely wrong about the heat so I did some research on weather.com and underground and they get there weather information from the ibm weather company which is the most accurate model from what they said even a higher resolution the the gfs and euro so I’m sticking with them there 15 day forecast is pretty good.

  22. Shelley McIntyre says:

    Thanks, Mark. I regret that folks complain to you so much, but I trust you are used to it by now. I used to hate Portland’s seemingly endless gray days, but I have grown to love them in my “old” age. My garden certainly is happier with a day like today than 90-105 degrees. Cheers.

  23. Tanis Leach says:

    Just finished up a term project and I thought I would share some findings since its partially relevant. One thing to note is that there was a ban on any item that was locationally related to the Willamette Valley so if you want me to redo the analysis for Oregon/Washington, let me know. That probably would be in video format, vs a 3-page paper like this one.

    Montana fires to Spring Precip, Summer temps, Summer precip. Without going into the fine details:
    Spring Precip: Almost no correlation (20%)
    Summer Precip: Almost guaranteed correlation (97%)
    Summer Temps: High correlation (90%)

    It should also be noted that Montana gets more summer precip than Oregon typically. Take this with a grain of salt.

    • Opie says:

      Hi Tanis,
      I’m wondering if maybe the correlation with fires and summer temperatures is more a correlation with wind, and it just so happens that windy days tend to be hot?

      • Tanis Leach says:

        Its possible that there is a correlation, but I do not have the computer processing power to do that analysis since it needs modeling. Cliff Mass has pointed that there is a correlation between east winds, and larger fires.

  24. tim says:

    Looking at the cpc week 3-4 outlook it has us cooler then normal we might escape June without any hot weather that’s fine we still have July through September.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      Hopefully June 28th is about 40 degrees cooler than last year. The 12z GFS ensembles are a thing of beauty for cool weather lovers like myself.

      • Anonymous says:

        How about average weather? If you want cooler than our average weather than go to Alaska, most of us don’t want it.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          What I want doesn’t change what’s going to happen. No need to be upset with me about the weather.

  25. Roland Derksen says:

    Nice analysis of spring 2022 in Portland, I can say similar things as well- it was among the wettest and coolest for me, but not a record breaker. As far as June goes, I recall a very wet start to June 1990, for instance, but it ended up being a warm dry summer anyway- so it’s not unprecedented either.

  26. West Linn 200 says:

    These stats don’t cover one important thing from this Spring: the dreariness index, or the number of days with clouds and precipitation of any kind. While the rain totals might appear typical, we had many days with our beloved “fine mist” and lack of sunshine. I think that’s what people are complaining about when they cry about the persistent wet weather. Not necessarily the quantity of rain in the season.
    Anybody got a link for those types of stats relative to previous years?

    put out some more slug bait around your favorite flowers
    Oh I actually need to do that. Thanks for the reminder Mark!

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