Enjoy Tuesday’s Sunshine! Rainy Season Arrives Late Week

8pm Monday…

October has been a cool but somewhat “dry-ish” month so far in Oregon and SW Washington. Just under an inch of rain in Portland and far less in Eastern Oregon. But we still have 13 days to go this month and a lot can change the 2nd half of October. The PACNW rainy season often arrives during this last half of October and it appears that WILL be the case this year.

First, enjoy your Tuesday because we have a spectacular day on tap. Offshore (easterly) surface flow plus just a few high clouds should allow temperatures to “soar” into the mid-upper 60s. We are in “peak color” in the metro area, so the combo of sunshine and yellows/oranges/reds shouldn’t disappoint. This will be the last guaranteed dry day.

A cool upper-level trough swings through tomorrow night and early Wednesday along with an associated weak front. Expect a bit of rain during this time, but less than 1/4″. Things get more interesting Wednesday/Thursday as a “bomb cyclone” develops out in the Eastern Pacific. A bomb cyclone is a rapidly deepening area of low pressure that deepens more than 24 millibars in 24 hours. This happens several times each cool season in the Pacific, but this one is a bit closer to our region. Who can forget the Thanksgiving Week bomb cyclone that slammed into SW Oregon and N. California two years ago? That one dropped about 40 millibars in 24 hours; similar forecast with this one. Enjoy the memories of closed highways and damaging wind here: https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/11/24/a-bomb-cyclone-southern-oregon-snow-storm-coldest-thanksgiving-weekend-in-years/

Here’s the 11pm Tuesday forecast from the ECWMF (European) model showing a developing low north of Hawaii. About 998 millibar central pressure. Surface pressure is the line contours, colors are upper level heights

Then just 24 hours later…11pm Wednesday. A 954 mb low about 600 miles west of the Oregon coastline. That’s a 42 millibar drop in 24 hours. This is similar to the Columbus Day Storm low pressure center. Except that storm shot south to north quickly up the coastline just 50 miles offshore!

As you may suspect, a storm of this magnitude produces strong wind and a large wind field. This graphic shows the highest wind gust forecast between now and Thursday afternoon. Some gusts around 90 mph over the open ocean, but it’s so far away that gusts 30-50 mph are the most we can expect along the Oregon coast.

Beyond this big storm offshore, a strong westerly jet sets up Saturday through much of next week. It aims first at California, then shifts a bit farther north next week.

This should give round after round of valley rain and mountain snows. This can be a pattern that leads to a windstorm. That’s IF a surface low develops on the north side of the jet and IF it comes up the coastline just right. Here’s a neat tool that allows me to quickly look at all ensemble members from one model. Each colored box and number is a peak gust for the preceding 6 hour period. Each horizontal line is one of the 30 GFS ensemble members. A quick glance shows not too many greens/yellows/reds, but there are a few. As we get closer to a possible event I would expect more to show up in a vertical line, like the gusty southerly wind that shows up midday Wednesday. Of course this is for Portland.

How much rain is ahead? Quite a bit. I see 2-4″ in the next 10 days. Just through next Monday, the ECMWF gives us about 2″ in the western valleys

And fire season will be ending very soon in the northern half of California. 5-10″ in the mountains down there during the same time period

KEY POINTS

  • Tomorrow is your last guaranteed dry day for quite awhile, for at least a week
  • Rain showers both Wednesday and Thursday will not be heavy, although it’ll be breezy Wednesday
  • A very wet weather regime arrives Friday and continues through next week, plan on a wet weekend, but there will be breaks in the rain, not all-day long soakers.
  • At this point I don’t see a windstorm or flooding setup, but will be watching closely since this is the right pattern for something to develop

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

85 Responses to Enjoy Tuesday’s Sunshine! Rainy Season Arrives Late Week

  1. Jake says:

    Currently at 0.50in of rain so far.

    Rate is 0.19~0.26in per hour.

    Pretty impressive even if the weather is mild as of late. Really hoping this La Nina goes to severe status.

    I think this Winter will have at least one good Winter event but I don’t want to jinx it hahaha!

    • Jake says:

      378
      FXUS66 KPQR 212237
      AFDPQR

      Area Forecast Discussion
      National Weather Service Portland OR
      337 PM PDT Thu Oct 21 2021

      .SYNOPSIS…Expect a very active weather pattern to bring valley rain
      and high mountain snow every 12-24 hours through early to mid next
      week. Strong winds will be possible along the coast Sunday.

      &&

      .SHORT TERM…THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT…Rain is
      gradually overspreading the area from the west, with a heavier wave
      of semi-convective activity expected to impact the Willamette Valley
      during the 4 to 9 PM timeframe. Briefly breezy winds may be possible
      with this activity in inland locations, but nothing substantial is
      expected there at this time. Along the coast and in the Coast Range,
      however, wind gusts to 40-45 mph appear likely for a period over the
      next couple of hours. Nearly continuous rain, potentially heavy at
      times, will continue over the area through late tomorrow morning,
      after which time much of the high resolution guidance is suggesting
      a brief break in activity. However, potential exists for a couple
      thunderstorms to develop in coastal and inland locations alike when
      surface heating destabilizes the atmosphere in the afternoon. Weak,
      large-scale sinking motions should be favored in cold air advection
      and anticyclonic vorticity advection behind the trough axis during
      the afternoon tomorrow, and vertical wind shear will weaken
      dramatically under the core of the upper trough. Yet, with the moist
      marine layer in place and any surface heating through cloud breaks
      (HREF is suggesting 40-60% probabilities for clouds over the
      Willamette Valley areas west), the area could see around 100-200
      J/kg of surface based CAPE which could support a few rumbles with
      isolated to scattered showers.

      Late Friday into Saturday, cyclogenesis will be favored on the back
      side of a ridge which will amplify in the wake of the bomb cyclone
      now moving northeast across the eastern Pacific. This system,
      however, will be significantly weaker than its predecessor, and the
      only effects from it expected in our area are additional rain. The
      deterministic models are now in reasonable agreement showing another
      cold front arriving onshore during the early morning on Saturday.
      Ahead of it we’ll get some gentle rain and perhaps additional breezy
      winds – particularly along the coast. Behind it, we should see more
      showers. Precipitation totals with this system are not looking like
      much in comparison to tonight’s system, with only a general two to
      four tenths of an inch expected (vs. 1/2″ to 1″ today through
      tomorrow evening) in the lowlands. -Bumgardner

      .LONG TERM…SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…A ridge tries to build in to
      bring a break in precipitation for about 12 hours or so Saturday
      night before another storm system approaches the region right on its
      heels. Whether or not showers taper early enough to provide the area
      a break in rain before more arrives ahead of the next surface low is
      not clear at this time, but it’s at least a reasonable possibility.
      Even so, Saturday looks cool, with the NBM only giving PDX a 15% of
      making it out of the 50s.

      Sunday’s forecast high is trickier, as timing, strength, and
      position of the low are still uncertain. A stronger low would favor
      deeper cloud cover in isentropic lift ahead of the front, but it
      would also feature stronger low-level warm air advection which could
      offset the inhibition of surface warming resulting from those
      clouds. A proper arrival time of the system could lead to
      significantly warmer temperatures than what is forecast as well,
      since cold frontal passage during the morning hours would clear out
      Saturday night’s radiational cooling-inhibiting clouds and allow for
      efficient surface heating. If this timing pans out, convection
      concerns would be on the increase as well, since 200+ J/kg of
      surface based instability would result area-wide in an environment
      characterized by upwards of 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear (assuming
      model forecasts from the NAM and GFS are not completely out to
      lunch).

      Models are struggling to forecast this system in general, but are in
      much better agreement compared to yesterday. The EPS system of
      ensemble members looks much less disorganized, with most forecasting
      the low deepening to 945mb to 960mb near 130W – a track slightly
      closer to shore than the today/tonight system. Despite the intensity
      of the system, its distance from the coast should prevent an extreme
      wind event there, but still several ensemble members are suggesting
      6 hour peak wind gusts of greater than 50 mph will be possible along
      the coast Sunday/Monday. Meanwhile, the GEFS ensemble is slightly
      weaker than (albeit in the same general area as) the EPS, with lows
      bottoming out in the 950-965mb range. The GFS solutions are somewhat
      more concerning though, since they are trying to develop additional,
      compact (meso)lows closer to the coast. If a small-scale low with a
      tight enough gradient can develop in sufficiently close proximity to
      the coast, then stronger winds would ensue, though this seems like a
      low-probability scenario on this time based on previous experience.
      Oddly enough, a smaller proportion of GFS members (in fact, only 4
      of 30) are forecasting high winds along the coast. One additional
      thought: The track of the ECMWF ensemble’s lows are generally west-
      southwest to east-northeast, which is not as favorable for high winds
      – especially in the Willamette Valley – as a more meridional (i.e.,
      south to north) low track. Ultimately, this system will bear
      watching in the coming days to determine whether or not impacts can
      be expected, though high winds along the coast look possible (not
      likely, but possible) at this time. Greater impacts would likely be
      from convection if it can develop in the strongly sheared
      environment east of the upper trough on Sunday.

      Monday through Wednesday, the pattern is as uncertain as (in fact,
      possibly more than) it is Sunday, with EPS and GEFS low pressure
      system tracks scattered all over the place from beyond 130W to areas
      east of the Cascades. A few solutions portray reasonably strong lows
      moving north/northeastward just off the Oregon and Washington coasts
      which could ultimately lead to another shot at strong winds along
      beaches and headlands (and possibly the Willamette Valley). Yet,
      solutions are, in general, weaker with wind speeds area-wide. At
      this time, the system with the greatest potential to have impacts is
      forecast to move through on Sunday, but more rain looks to be a good
      bet for early next week. By mid-week, 3 out of 4 solutions in WPC’s
      cluster analysis suggest an amplification and westward expansion of
      the ridge currently centered in the Great Basin. Uncertainty is
      high, but this is a promising sign for warming and drying
      conditions. -Bumgardner

      &&

      .AVIATION…00Z TAFS: Cold front is coming onshore right now.
      Winds have eased at the coast with cigs briefly falling to IFR
      along with brief IFR vsbys under the moderate rain band. Most
      gusty wind inland right now is from the easterly Gorge outflow
      affecting KTTD and KPDX. The outflow should end when the front
      arrives in the next couple hours, otherwise don’t expect much
      significant wind inland with this specific frontal passage.
      Conditions behind the front appear to bring MVFR cigs with
      trailing showers continuing through most of the remaining TAF
      period.

      For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online
      to: https://weather.gov/zse

      KPDX AND APPROACHES…Main impact will with the cold front crossing
      during the afternoon arrivals centered around 00Z. Expect a fairly
      rapid drop in flight conditions with IFR cigs under the primary rain
      band from 00-02Z. Cascades will likely remain obscured for much of
      the 12 hours following. /JBonk

      &&

      .MARINE…Current surface low is well off the Strait of Juan de
      Fuca and nearly made a direct track over buoy 46036. The lowest
      pressure at the buoy was 957 mb recorded at noon PST. This would
      give the 12Z GFS as the better performer of the NAM, GFS, and
      ECMWF regarding the surface low strength. Unfortunately, that
      particular forecast did not translate well to the observed
      strength of the winds. Peak sustained winds at buoy 89 were
      around 30 kt with the highest gust of 45 kt. That was compared to
      all model forecasted speeds of 34-41kt and much higher gust
      speeds. Winds have dropped off pretty quickly immediately behind
      the front but then the wrapped up occlusion will cross the waters
      overnight bringing another round of marginal gales. Given the
      overdone performance of first round today, feel no need to extend
      the current gale warning. A Small Craft Advisory should suffice.
      Widespread wind gusts then drop below 21 kts near daybreak
      Friday. Buoy 89 seas briefly peaked at 20 feet earlier today and
      appear to have reached the mid-teens as the front crosses the
      buoys closer to shore. Forecasted seas for this evening may be a
      bit overdone given the slightly weaker winds.

      Somewhat of a break tomorrow as surface high pressure crosses the
      waters through trailing westerly swells will keep seas 12-14 ft.
      Another front, though decaying, will bring increased winds across
      the waters late Friday night with the front crossing inland by
      daybreak. Seas will probably not see much change and remain in
      the lower to maybe mid teens.

      Models continue to widely vary with the position of the next
      strong low pressure area for Sunday heading into Monday. Each run
      seems to bring a new spread of solutions. As such, feel it is not
      time to start jumping on any single solution or timing. In
      general, however, there will be a surface low center maturing
      well off the Columbia mouth between 130 and 135W. Lowest
      pressures seem to be in the 945-950 mb range and the trajectory
      seems to be generally toward the NE and coming onshore somewhere
      over western British Columbia. Many models are indicating storm
      force gust potential over the coastal waters of Oregon and
      Washington from any time between daybreak Sunday through
      daybreak Monday. Combined seas 25-30 feet are plausible from
      Sunday night through Monday night but again, continue to see a
      wide variance of wave output. At this point, feel it is best to
      significantly push the forecasted winds and seas higher toward
      those values given the very broad model agreement, but hold off
      on fully jumping in an any single or blended solution. /JBonk

      &&

      .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
      OR…None.
      WA…None.
      PZ…Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for coastal waters
      from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

       Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for coastal waters 
       from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.
      
       Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for Columbia River 
       Bar.
      

      $$

      -National Weather Service

      • Jake says:

        I’ve not seen such a long report from the national weather service. Appears they’re quite concerned about this potential windstorm / busy weather.

        Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDPQR&e=202110212237

        • Anonymous says:

          Maybe I interpreted it wrong, but they don’t seem all that concerned with the first two systems in terms of the metro area and are only mildly concerned with the third (due to it being too far out to make any calls).

        • Jake says:

          No they for sure are. Not one but two Columbus Day storm level storms.

          First one we’re seeing off course for us bombed in less than 24hours at an unheard totally nuts pace.

          This second one is nothing short of a monster. A cruise ship sinker.

    • Hank says:

      .57 Inches so far in Salem!

  2. W7ENK says:

    Interesting to note:

  3. tim says:

    Another historic storm Sunday off our coast, cliff new post today, only if we could get a historic artic blast this winter I guess that would be asking too much tho December 1990 redux would be nice.

    • Andy says:

      There is a good chance…NOAA’s updated winter weather forecast and is predicting the NW and Southern Alaska will be cold…so maybe it’s our turn and not the east coast…

  4. JJ78259 says:

    Bomb Cyclone kinda rolls nicely off the tongue!

  5. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I’m looking at the 00Z GFS, it has that Low bottoming out at 940mb. Has anyone else see a Low that low??

  6. Anonymous says:

    These models are all over the place. The only consistent picture here is that we’ll have rain, but where, when, and how much has been deviating significantly with each run

  7. Ken in Wood Village says:

    There is a thunderstorm North of Battleground and I swear it looks like it’s rotating on radar 🤔

  8. Tom says:

    Hi all, “lurker” on this blog here, question for ya’ll on weather stations you use. I have a Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2 since 2008. In that time I’ve replaced the Temp / Hum sensor on the outdoor unit twice ($70 ish each time ) ( capacitor fail I think, humidity readings were nonsense ), replaced the reed switch that works with the tipping bucket twice, which involves breaking out the soldering iron, replaced the entire ISS transmitter unit once ( $70 ) – due to a capacitor failure, it wasn’t holding solar panel charge and was chewing through the Li battery every couple months.
    Now I have to replace the ISS again, because this time a pin in the RJ11 connector outlet on the PCB for the rain gauge has corroded out and I’m getting no rain data. This on a reconditioned ISS transmitter I got 15 months ago.
    So… am I just unlucky ( I’m Irish, I’m not supposed to be, haha ! ), or is this just “par for the course”. I bought the Davis instruments unit because it was, I thought, “Professional” quality ! Maybe after 13 yrs it’s time for something new …
    Interested to hear “weather geek” thoughts !

    • yigablademaster says:

      13 years? No wonder I am surprised your machine lasted that long! Smoke detectors are suppose to be replaced every 10 years so I don’t see why this doesn’t either. Yeah so it’s best to save again. Man you have ONE tough machine!

  9. W says:

    Typically we average around .10 rain per day in October. We are around 2.00 of rain below normal in Salem for 2021. If we get 3.00 of rain by Halloween we will be spot on average. So why wish for 5-7 inches and have flooding. How about some light gentle rains and a gradual lowering of the snow level. I don’t want nor do I need an epic weather event. After the wildfires in September of 2020, the ice storm of February 2021, and 117 degrees in June I would enjoy a nice quiet average Autumn. Some snow would be nice this Winter but nothing epic. Peace.

  10. Andrew says:

    Latest model runs suggest less chance of a wind event as the potent systems just don’t come far enough east. I suspect we will see model fluctuations over next few days. My gut tells me this is just a typical active fall pattern versus anything truly noteworthy.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      One thing about windstorms is, they develop rapidly. Mark said it best last night on the news, “we won’t know until a day or two before it happens.” Models could be having a hard time trying to figure out what will happen. 🤗

      • Patrick b says:

        Yeah, they do develop rapidly, especially in a strong jet stream thats forecast to take aim at the west coast for the next week at least. I wonder if the relatively warm area of the Pacific Ocean to the west helps intensify these storms.

    • K700 says:

      Mark mentioned on Twitter that (as of now) everything is too far offshore to bring damaging winds to the area. I may be in the minority, but I hope it stays that way. It took months to clean up the downed limbs from the ice storm in February.

      • Weatherdan says:

        Same here. Peace

      • Andrew says:

        Yeah plus i don’t exactly trust the integrity of the branches that didn’t come down in the ice storm but surely were compromised. There is probably a sweet spot where we get strong winds but not a lot of damage, just enough to satiate our weather curiosity. That said, it doesn’t take a major windstorm to lose power, which is no fun. Any time we get this pattern it’s worth keeping an eye on but smart money would be on breezy conditions and lots of rain. nothing more. Im still holding out hope for our first meaningful December snowfall in many years. Crazy to think snow comes into weather picture in a matter of weeks. unlikely as always but we’re nearly two thirds through meteorological fall and it’s definitely not unprecedented to see flakes in air come late November. Heck, a couple years ago the weekend after Thanksgiving was basically as cold as we got all “winter”, with Central Oregon getting nailed with a major snowstorm. The rest of winter was a dud.

  11. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    I smell a bust. I’ve simply seen this happen too many times to trust these too-good-to-be-true models. Wake me up when we have a few inches of standing water in the streets. Otherwise, I’m 100% sure that rain shadows are going to cut these amounts in half.

    • Gene says:

      I can understand wanting to have a few inches of snow on the ground, but I don’t get the logic of wanting to have a few inches of standing water in the streets. Doesn’t seem to me like that would be much fun for anyone.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      Mark, is there a way to stop someone else from posting as me? It’s flattering, but quite annoying.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        I think I have Mark’s email address still. I could email him about this but the problem would be, who is who. I’m guessing the only way to know who is who is by the email.

        Let me know if you like me to email him or if you have his email, you could let him know.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Thanks, Ken. That’s not necessary. I appreciate it though. I can send him a message via Twitter if need be. He could validate who is who by the email address or IP address.

      • Anonymous says:

        If you make a WordPress account like W7, that could potentially distinguish you from the fake. My guess is it’s that “wishcasting express” fella that rambles about volcanoes and what not. Or “Kyle” as W7 likes to call him. Seems he comes out every now and then to create a little havoc. I swear he posted under two names last week so he could have a convo with himself on here lol. I’m starting to think he really does have a psychological disorder like W7 says.

        • Hank says:

          His name actually is Kyle, And W7ENK Could explain how he knows the problem. But yeah he comes on here at random time’s probably when he is off his meds and goes Crazy, and he says weird stuff with random names, I Think his current attack on this comment section is over.

          -Hank

        • W7ENK says:

          I know someone who is a friend of his parents, and I also know someone who knows Kyle from a mental health perspective. I suppose you could say that I’ve been briefed.

    • Opie says:

      Something I’ve noticed in the Willamette Valley but have no explanation for…… it’s almost never really windy and rainy at the same time. And If the forecast calls for both, the rain part will usually be a bust.

  12. W7ENK says:

    Hey you guys?
    We may have a problem developing here…

    🤔

    • W7ENK says:

      Those first two somehow got out of order…

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        So what exactly does this mean?

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          I see that somebody is impersonating me. I didn’t ask that question.

          It means you better batten down the hatches if it verifies.

        • W7ENK says:

          The first two images were supposed to display the other way around.

          1) 10/25/21 6am PDT: Shows 947mb low approaching the Southern Oregon Coast, about 150 miles offshore from around Cape Blanco / Coos Bay.

          2) 10/25/21 12pm PDT: Shows 952mb low riding up the coast, only about 50-60 miles offshore from Tillamook / Astoria.

          3) Shows max wind gusts on 10/25 topping 85mph in the Willamette Valley, with the highest winds concentrated between Salem and Vancouver, with some areas topping 90mph.

          And it’s not just the EURO anymore, the other models are starting to jump onboard now, too.

          And we’re only 5-6 days out…

        • W7ENK says:

          Oh, hmmm…..

          RE: impersonation — Not cool!

        • Hank says:

          Really hope that doesn’t happen, although there is a part of me that want’s to see extreme weather, not that much, But wow thats windy!

        • Opie says:

          Matt Zaffino made a nice documentary about the Columbus Day Storm. He points out that its track, very near the coastline, is what separated it from all other PNW storms of the 20th century:

          Let’s hope this one doesn’t get too close!

      • Zach says:

        What wind speeds is the latest GFS showing?

  13. Anonymous says:

    I hope this forecast is a bust and it’s just a mild, rainy and breezy storm. We don’t need any sort of weather that causes wind damage and flooding. It baffles me why anyone would wish for that…

    • Johnny says:

      I agree. There is nothing visually great about a wind storm or flooding. Just causes a ton of damage and heartache. What kind of person would root for that?

    • Zach says:

      5-6 inches of rain spread out over 10 days or so won’t cause much flooding. Now down in SW Oregon I agree it looks a bit concerning

  14. Zach says:

    That 12z Euro is a beauty just like last night.

  15. tim says:

    12z gem still showing 950mb low offshore around the 25th wish other models would agree.

  16. W7ENK says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark. I’m glad we’re finally going into a period of potentially exciting weather!

  17. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Are you guys noticing that fall colors are especially intense this year? Vine maples are really popping compared to normal. Fiery reds and oranges. It must have to do with the cool nights, relative dryness, and decent amount of sunshine. With the grass having greened up after the late September deluge, it really is beautiful right now.

    • W7ENK says:

      I have, yes. And it’s funny, because just a couple weeks ago, KATU ran a story claiming the “experts” were saying our fall color was expected to be highly muted this season due to the Summer heat, and something they called “scorching” of the leaves. Seems KATU and these so-called “experts” had absolutely no idea what they were talking about. I’m shocked, shocked I tell you!

      Oddly enough, I think the exact opposite is true. The hot Summer and dry conditions have actually led to much more vibrant fall color this season.

      I’m not saying that this “scorching” didn’t happen, because it’s quite evident that many of our trees — especially our evergreens — were hit really hard by that early Summer heatwave. Doug Firs and Western Red Cedars aren’t meant to handle 115+ degree heat, and nearly every single one I’ve seen has bright orange/brown burnt needles/bracts, especially on their South and West sides. My box elder maple lost a quarter of it’s leaves before the 4th of July. I’ll be watching them closely through the next several seasons to see how that damage progresses or if they mend.

      Let’s hope we never see a repeat performance of that.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        One thing we can definitely agree on. I am eager to see how much of the scorched needles are shed in the spring or at lest hidden by new growth. I suppose it depends on the type of evergreen. Some hold needles longer than others.

    • K700 says:

      Definitely, the oranges and reds seem extra vibrant this year. Even the yellows seem to have a little more punch than usual.

      • Hank says:

        Never seen you comment here before, new?

        • K700 says:

          Not new. I usually publish under a different name. I’ve chosen to use a new persona from here on out.

        • K700 says:

          Um, not sure who that other person replying is, seems some troll has taken to impersonating posters here. I’ve been commenting under anonymous for a few months and figured I should stop being lazy and put a username to my comments.

  18. Lynn says:

    Bring on the storms!

  19. Anonymous says:

    I bet Joshua in Lake Oswego will stay in hiding for the rest of the month with this news.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      It’s not news, it’s a forecast. I said a few days ago that we could be entering a wet period starting later this week. The 00z models were extremely wet. I love it. We will see how much rain we actually get. It looks very promising.

  20. JERAT416 says:

    Now if we just had a 3,000ft or lower snow level until may …..

  21. tim says:

    Open the flood gates.

  22. MasterNate says:

    I think we have all been waiting for this since the June heat wave. I for one am excited about the possibilities this winter will bring.

  23. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Thank you for the update Mark. I’ll be watching the models really closely because there is potential for a possible windstorm.

    First!!

    • Anonymous says:

      You have a knack for spotting these “events” before anyone!

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        It’s a curse!! I’ve lived in the PNW all my life (54 years) and have been looking at the models for I don’t know how long. I sometimes know what a Low will or could do from past experiences.

        I think a couple of weeks ago, I said something about the strong Jet stream and if it was strong enough, High pressure systems won’t stand a chance to build and keep the PNW dry. I also said, with a strong Jet stream, there is a good chance of having a windstorm this fall/winter season. I never wish we would have these things but like I said before, I’ve seen this type of pattern before and know what to expect. Not saying it happens all the time but it’s looking more likely we could see something big this fall/winter season.

        That being said, we just need to keep an eye on those Lows the next few days to see were they decide to track. If anything, we will be breezy for awhile…lol.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          I forgot about something. I know everyone is bashing about Cliff and about the “bomb cyclone” but one thing about that strong low is, it will help create new lows (which could produce some strong lows too). One other thing, when you get a strong low pressure system, sometimes they can create secondary low pressure systems which could be as strong as the original low or stronger. I’ve seen this happen either in the 1990 or 1993 storm. I went hunting with my dad along the Coast. It was amazing to feel those strong winds. We went to a mountain along the Coast (I don’t remember the mountains name) and it felt like the truck was going to roll on it’s side.

          Sorry, didn’t mean to go off onto a story…lol. Let’s start model watching 🙂

        • Hank says:

          I Don’t get why so many people are bashing Cliff’s post, I think it was Pretty accurate. a bit of topic, the storm will help cool our winter a lot! (weaking the blob)

        • tim says:

          The blob seems very powerful I don’t think anything will destroy it unfortunately.

        • Hank says:

          https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/animation/gif/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif Tim i think it will get rid of the blob that affects us, but not the main part, it’s more west than its ever been and the cool Low pressures in the gulf of Alaska is most of the cause, And this low im confident will cool down from -140 W to our coast, And if it doesn’t ill be suprised

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