Chilly October = Pass Elevation Snow & First Frost In Lowlands

9pm Sunday…

We’ve all noticed the change. After 6 months of warmer than normal temperatures, October is running well below normal temperature-wise. For the first 10 days. During the last 10 days of September we saw 3 days in the 80s in Portland; it’s hard to believe that less than three weeks ago we saw highs around 90 in the metro area! Of course it’s normal to see temperatures drop off in October; no other month changes as dramatically in the Portland area. But going from above normal temps to below normal has accentuated that change this year. You can see that we are a bit alone in the Pacific Northwest, the rest of the country has seen a very warm start to fall.

The coldest airmass of the season so far has arrived this evening behind last night’s cold front. For the first time since spring, it’s snowing hard and sticking at Government Camp

Sticking snow should fall about 1,000′ lower than this elevation, down to around 3,000′ by sunrise. I expect 1-2″ at Govy and 3-5″ higher up at Timberline (6,000′). We’re in a showery airmass that dries out by sunrise, thus not expecting a ton of snow.

The reason it’s been cool? A weather pattern we saw this past spring; not especially wet, but cool. Take a look at the current 500mb heights and the anomaly (blue colors). Well below normal for October 10th as a cool trough or “dip” in the jet stream is passing overhead

A warm/strong upper-level ridge is out in the eastern Pacific and COULD move over us the next few days. But instead another cool trough flattens that ridge, and drops right into the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s another round of (light) rain and (light) mountain snow. Models say the following few troughs coming eastward on the jet stream will dig farther west; putting us in a milder southwesterly flow late this week and beyond. Wednesday the 20th…

So temperatures may turn a bit warmer the end of this week and beyond. As for rain, I don’t see a tremendously wet pattern over the next week, just showery at times. The same ECMWF ensembles show the near to below normal precipitation the next 7 days (brown = drier than average)

Then significantly wetter NEXT week; northern/central California may get its first soaking since late last winter

By the way, October 2019 was very cool and a bit dry. So there’s no reason to think that a cool October leads to a cool winter. Winter 2019-20 was mild & boring (no snow/ice/windstorms) with only a dusting of snow in mid-March in the lowlands.

Tomorrow night we get lower relative humidity, clear sky, calm wind, & a leftover cool airmass. That combo SHOULD give us the first frost in some outlying areas. No, not a big “pipe-busting” overnight freeze, just cold enough to end the growing season in spots. I’m going 36 in the city, which means some upper 20s in the coldest outlying areas. The NWS has just issued a Freeze Watch for tomorrow night for this reason for many areas west of the Cascades.

That’s it for now, I won’t be posting as regularly since I’ve been busier and we’re short two weather people. I’ll try to get it done once per week and more often if something dramatic happens.

Within the next two weeks I’ll get my winter thoughts together as well. We know it’s La Niña and a cold PDO this season. Hmmm…we will see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

155 Responses to Chilly October = Pass Elevation Snow & First Frost In Lowlands

  1. W7ENK says:

    Hallowe’en eye candy…

    Not gonna happen, but it’s a fun though experiment.

    • Andrew says:

      woah! that would sure be something. next week looks active. probably nothing crazy unusual here but lots of powerful storm activity out in pacific.

    • Opie says:

      I did some digging, just out of curiosity, and found that the global SST map for summer 2010 was eerily similar to what we see now (refer to Hank’s post), blob and all. I then decided to check Mark’s post for late October of that year. Coincidentally,

      “W7ENK says:
      October 28, 2010 at 11:27 pm
      939 mb??? Jeezuz! Let’s get one of those to ride up the coast from Cape Blanco to Forks at a range of 50 miles offshore, and then see what happens! 😈”

      • W7ENK says:

        Heh…

        Yeah, I’ve been at this for a long time. With the exception of April 2017, it seems like it’s been that long (longer, actually) since we’ve had a real good windstorm blow through here.

        I’m always thirsty for the exciting stuff.

    • Hank says:

      Halloween might be the worst day for us to get a storm like that, either Halloween or the 4th of July, days everyone goes outside.

  2. Andrew says:

    Looks like a couple good size systems aimed our way early next week but neither as of now appears to hit the right location to give us much more than rain and some breeze. worth watching though. pacific is certainly active.

  3. Roland Derksen says:

    6.01 inches for the total of the month here so far- that’s already considered normal for the entire 31 days, but more is coming. We might see another new record for October, though I doubt it- we’ll probably fall just short.

    • Jake says:

      I’ve not had a chance to look at the ensembles have you? Why is he having such confidence.

      This has forecast exactly because of its potential as a deadly storm… wth…

      • Jake says:

        to be*

        Oof, I’ll keep sipping this chai Golden Eagle from Dutch Bros. My brain this morning with what is going on!

      • W7ENK says:

        Okay, but if you’ve been watching this like he (claims that he) has, you’d also know that this storm is not coming anywhere near close enough to threaten us here in the population centers of the PNW. The way he’s hyping this storm, it leads one to think it’s going to slam straight into Seattle, but that’s simply not the case. He does clarify in passing at the very end of his post that this storm is going to affect extreme NW BC and SW Alaska.

        Alarmism at it’s finest, I guess that’s what Uncle Cliff does best. Gotta get those clicks!

        • Jake says:

          Okay I was going to say there’s nothing supporting this going anywhere but the wilderness of the Northern Cascadia region.

          Most of it will have a run of power over the ocean. Not seeing it either at all

  4. W7ENK says:

    This looks like fun…

    😬

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      I saw this storm a day ago. I think we need to keep an eye on how the models do the next couple of days. The last run of the GFS has taken it further South though. I’m waiting to see what the Euro model does with it on the 12Z.

    • tim says:

      12z gem has a 950mb offshore.

      • Ken in Wood Village says:

        Did you see what it shows on the 27th? At one point, the low is down to 962mb then it moves into the Puget Sound area but the low goes up to 981mb. Not sure how I feel if we had back to back windstorms.

  5. Paul D says:

    Noisy rain in Hillsboro!

  6. tim says:

    Cliff mass new post on a superstorm off our coast.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Lol, my lightning detector went off 🤣 I was a little surprised since there wasn’t any mention of thunderstorms today 😅 maybe we’ll see more later today or tonight 🤗⛈

    • Andrew says:

      I should prob know this but why do so many systems like the one Mass describes seem to take dead aim for oregon but then beeline it north. is that the influence of the blob?

      • yigablademaster says:

        The biggest influence is the split of the currents. Naturally we are right where the Humboldt Current goes south down thru Eureka and the other one goes north making us sort of a ‘dead’ area. Other factors include the ‘blob’ which the models have no parameters programmed for it.

        There is also a known underwater volcano SW of Brookings Oregon where there has been unusual low-magnitude earthquakes since about 2013 ish which creates a ‘slow burner’ effect on the ocean which influences again where weather goes.
        It creates a semi-permanent localized warming effect which only goes away when something powerful overrides it’s effects.

        There’s a lot more then that but it involves understanding of physics and all that which the GFS/Euro,NAM,etc do not take account for.

      • yigablademaster says:

        Oh and microplastics island in the center of the pacific is the size of the west coast backing up ocean current flow. An article in the Statesman Journal reported the microplastic has been building since synthetic fibers went into clothing leeching into laundry water. State of Oregon is studying it. The fibers are found in all local marine life and some human tissues from the pollution.

        The island is thicker water and impedes the flow circulation.

  7. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I just looked at the 12Z Canadian model. It shows a 963mb in the classic spot to produce a windstorm on the 25th. I’m not saying this will happen but it will be interesting to see how the models go forward from here.

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Just looked at the 12Z Euro. It has a 967mb Low almost in the exact spot the Canadian model has it but the Euro has it on the 26th. Interesting!!

  8. Ken in Wood Village says:

    All I can say is, WOW!! Just looked at the 06Z GFS and the 00Z Euro models and they both look the same (one has a little more moisture tho!!). It really does look like we are going into a very active pattern (I believe I said this a couple of weeks ago 🤔). It looks like we’ll have a line of storms coming in, one after another. Like I said before, I don’t mind the rain but I really hope we don’t start having flooding issues ☹

    One other thing!! Some of these storms have potential to be wind makers. I think we need to watch how these storms develop so we are not caught off guard. If the ground is saturated with water and we get a wind storm, that could be a recipe for disaster ☹

  9. tim says:

    Off topic, seahawks will win there next three games I see a 2014 repeat. Go hawks.

  10. Oliver Watson says:

    I just never remember ever in my 15-20 years of model riding the models flipping and flopping so drastically on just regular old rainstorms that used to be more common around these parts. I mean that’s what Pacific Northwest weather was all about

    • tim says:

      Arizona is moving north, enough said.

      • yigablademaster says:

        Geology records show that during the 1,000AD warming there was a 50 year MEGA drought and Tahoe went dry. We will be dry more then we are wet in our current cycle for the next 200 years and water fights will be a common theme.

      • yigablademaster says:

        Oh and I forgot to mention that the 1,000AD drought was more worse towards 1100AD thru 12000AD. Then a bunch of major volcano events cooled the world off sometime around 1300 leading to mega crop failures in Europe and mass famine. It went very cool real dramatically.

      • yigablademaster says:

        Oops again typo: I meant 1100AD thru 1200AD.

      • Hank says:

        Hey Tim/Oliver, hasn’t cliff proved our precipitation hasn’t gone down, mark has also agreed on that, the way we get our precipitation isn’t really affected by climate change. But I still believe climate change (I’m not insane) but 1.8 1.9 whatever it is, isn’t very Noticeable (in our pnw climate) I don’t think Arizona is really moving north.

        To make it clear one more time, I believe climate change and its threats, but in pnw climate (most places aren’t as lucky as us) we aren’t really affected.

        .

        .

        -Hank

        • Oliver Watson says:

          Climate change/variability is real. How much humans affect it is still in debate. The melting glaciers and warmer temps can’t be denied. Unfortunately it’s seems many people don’t believe in climate change or take it seriously. Too many people think if you believe or dont believe in it you are somehow taking either political side. It’s kind of the same thing with the coronavirus.

        • Opie says:

          Portland isn’t so lucky during the summer months:

          Trends in average temps, June-Aug, 1939-2021 (NOAA)
          Global oceans: +0.09 C/decade
          Global land: +0.16 C/decade
          PDX: +0.22 C/decade

      • Opie says:

        Long term records show Oregon has been trending warmer, but almost no change in precipitation.

        The result? With more water moving upwards from the higher temperature (evaporation), but the same moving downwards (precipitation), you get a drier climate overall.

  11. Oliver Watson says:

    Something I was thinking about was it would be good to do a study on the model accuracy over the past 15 years. You could compare all the major models on a 8-10 day time frame, 5-7, and a 3-5 day. It seems to me like the model accuracy is getting worst. It also seems though that certain models perform better in certain weather situations. I definitely don’t believe in the euro is King thought process anymore. Also I wonder if model accuracy ebbs and flows with different months and years and isn’t necessarily getting more consistent or less consistent. I would also be interested to see if they got rid of all analogs before 1995 or even 2000 if model accuracy would improve. If anybody wants to do a study on these things I’d love to find out what your research shows

    • Hank says:

      Luckily I have some information for you.

      I’ve kept track of accuracy since January (I don’t do it every week)
      But a couple Mondays a month, I look at what the weather apps and weather models forecast for the next 7 days, and then I right down the weather every day at my station, and at the end of the week I compare, there are 2 ways I track accuracy, whatever one gets the most singular days right, and mean temperature.

      I’ve done it 17 Weeks this year, and GFS Has came out on top.
      For days exactly correct (high temp, low temp and precipitation) GFS has a shocking 41/117!
      Accuweather (weather app) has a good 32!
      CFSv2 with a good 27.
      Weather.com with a decent 23
      Ecmwf with a depressing 13! There’s more but I don’t want to say all, that would take too long.
      Now for mean temp (average temp between the whole week)
      Gfs has been the winner of 10 weeks (2 of them spot on within a tenth of a degree)!
      Accuweather winning 4 weeks! (One week spot on!)
      Weather.com with 1 Week.
      ECMWF with 1 Week.
      Gem gdps with 1 week.
      And the 11 other models/weather apps, have 0 wins.

      So in conclusion GFS is the winner. But when the gfs is wrong it’s the furthest off from the actual weather.

      -Hank

  12. Hank says:

    So who here wants a dry or wet fall? I Know Ken, Tim, one of the anonymous, want a wet fall.

    Also I wonder how many anonymous’s comment on here, it’s kinda annoying not knowing who is who

    Hank

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I want a wet fall, winter, spring, and summer. Moss, mushrooms, mud… all of it all the time.

    • Anony says:

      I don’t want wet anything. I don’t mind a few days of rain, but long stretches of rainy and grey days are not fun. I don’t want to put on rain gear and go outside and do “stuff”. Doesn’t matter how dry your gear keeps you, it’s not going to keep you 100% dry (trust me I know I’ve worked outside in it plenty). I wish our winter weather wasn’t so predictable either, it’s just the same thing for 4 months. Also, before everyone chimes in about “why don’t you move…!?!” Be realistic, if I could I would, but I can’t, so save it. It’s funny though, if I say I don’t like rain and clouds everyone gets SO upset. Like it’s personally offending them that someone who lives in Oregon doesn’t like the incessant rain and clods. There are a lot of people who don’t, they just aren’t vocal about it. There is a lot to love about Oregon and Portland, but the rain, clouds and marine layer are definitely not on any list of mine.

      Signed,

      Anonymous

  13. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Then I’ll be comment 101 🤗😇 it’s going to be short though!! The 00Z Euro is really wet 😳 IF we went with what it’s showing, we could see flooding 🥺 I know we have been in a drought for months but I noticed on the run, there was still a lot of moisture coming towards the PNW. I don’t mind the rain but I do have a problem if we start having issues with flooding ☹

    Ok, I’m off to bed again 😴😴😴

  14. Hank says:


    Last time I did one of these was Monday, and ALOT has changed since then!

    I’ll start off with the equator, that string of cold water is a average of 2.1 Celsius below normal, thats 3.8 Fahrenheit! This isn’t always associated with la nina conditions, but when it is, it makes our arctic outbreaks a extra .5-1 degrees F colder, other than that it barely affects us.

    Now I’ll talk about the blob and gulf of Alaska. The gulf of Alaska has been cooling dramatically in the last 2 weeks, that has mostly slowed down the last days, but now it’s spreading more south and getting rid of the part of the blob that affects us and moving it west. And i have 100% Confidence as of today, that after a very large low pressure will go over the part of the pacific near us that is still warm (Oct 20th-Oct 23rd) , which will connect the cold water area from California to Hawaii, and the cold Gulf of Alaska, making it 1 big batch of cool water. For those of you confused why that would make it cooler, because the low pressure will take the top layer of the ocean off and that will help fuel the precipitation, and will just drop it down (as rain) much cooler than. It originally was.

    Now I’ll talk about the south pacific (the main la nina action) on Monday I 100% confirmed the la nina, and then on Wednesday Noaa confirmed it. I’m also 100% Confident it will be atleast a Moderate La Nina. pretty much all there is to say about there, Cold.

                                 .
    

    I’ll update some point next week, either Wednesday Thursday or Friday.

    .

    .
    -Hank

  15. Hank says:

    It seems like it’s going to be above average precip this month, I’ve so far recorded 1.39 Inches in salem, average is 3.2, last 3 gfs runs have had enough precip to get us above average, but to be honest I don’t want a rainy October or November, I used to think most people on here don’t like rainy falls either, but now I think the majority of the people on here like rainy falls.

    And if someone says I’m selfish to not want a rainy fall (people say stuff like that one here) I’ll tell you why, I hated playing in wet leaves as a kid, I hated wet Halloweens, fall has the nicest weather of the year, not too hot, not too cold, and the UV is low, but rainy falls ruin that, also wet leaf raking sucks.

    -Hank

    • Anonymous says:

      GFS is trash. It trends towards the extreme upper limit of a particular range. Remember last year’s 2ft of snow it predicted like 3 days out? Yeah, it sucks that bad. Euro is a bit better, but even that’s been unreliable over the last year.

      • Hank says:

        I know not to trust the gfs or euro, I was just pointing it out, actually for future reference, never think I believe the forecasts I. Saying, I’m actually more of a person who points out what the models are saying, what shape the polar vortex is in, ocean temperatures, ect. I’m not really a forecaster on here, I just point out conditions and models, although sometimes I will make a forecast, but very rarely.

        But I’m going to point out this to the people who say the euro is more accurate, since Jan 12th (when I started tracking forecast accuracy) the gfs has been much more reliable.

        -Hank

  16. Anonymous says:

    Oof… we went from 3+ in of rain from the 12z Euro yesterday to about 1/2 in of rain on the 00z and 12z Euro today.

  17. Hank says:

    Guess I’ll do the same thing but with low temperatures (if you haven’t seen my comment on highs yet, go see it) Average low temperature of every month in Portland, Here goes!

    Jan 2021 avg low, 39.51. Historic Average January, 37.
    Feb 2021 avg low, 34.46. Historic Average February 38
    Mar 2021 avg low, 37.54. Historic Average March, 41.
    Apr 2021 avg low, 38.89. Historic Average April low, 44
    May 2021 avg low, 46.24. Historic Average May low 49
    Jun 2021 avg low, 57.69. Historic Average June low, 53.
    Jul 2021 avg low, 58.02. Historic Average July low, 57.
    Aug 2021 avg low, 54.64. Historic Average August low, 58.
    Sep 2021 avg low, 51.34. Historic Average September low, 54.
    Oct 1-13 2021 avg low, 42.81. Historic Average Oct 1-13 low, 49.6

    Historical Average low Jan 1st-October 13th, 48.1

    January 1st-October 13th 2021 Average low, 46.1

    Wow! Again below average! If I put together the highs and lows
    55.65 Mean temp this year, and Average from Jan 1st-October 13th is 57.1, So our mean temp has been 1.5 below normal!

    I guess now if someone says we are having a hot year, they are right If we talk about hot days, but overall they are wrong!

    Kinda sounds weird to say “We are in a cold year”, but I guess it’s the facts, also what’s everyone’s thought on this Average?

    To the couple of people who might be curious, this one took less time to do since I kinda got the hang of it, but still took, 1 Hour 34 Minutes 6 Seconds 743 Milliseconds!

                                                                                                                       .
    
                                                                                                                       .
    

    -Hank

    • Opie says:

      Hank,
      Could you give a link to your source?

      • Opie says:

        I checked the average high at PDX for June, 2021: 82.6 F

        https://projects.oregonlive.com/weather/temps/

        You reported 76.43 F, but maybe a different location?

      • Hank says:

        I’m bummed out I posted incorrect information, actually it isn’t a link, my friend who lives in Portland has the 290$ Ambient weather station which is really accurate, and it’s a app for his station, and I have access to its information, I guess he lives on a decent sized pond and more in the forest, maybe that makes the temperatures colder? But I’ll accept I’m wrong, and because I’m wrong, Nobody take my information seriously since I guess it’s inaccurate.

        Hank

    • Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

      You’re numbers seem to be way off buddy. Could you give a link to your source.

  18. tim says:

    Looks like another big busteroo that doesn’t sound positive to me but what the hell do I know, damn right wing hypocrites.tucker Carlson is your master.

  19. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    This weekend is looking more and more like yet another big busteroo. Portland could potentially be 100% dry or close to it.

    The Euro is the last holdout. Any bets on which run it will back down?

    It doesn’t matter how wet the models are if the verified amount is a small fraction of the forecasted amount.

    • tim says:

      O0z has a split flow California should benefit from it, but I’m sure I’ll get treated like sh*t for saying that so go ahead guys I’m waiting for it.

      • tim says:

        How come Josh can be a downer and nobody says anything but if I say what models are saying I’m debbie downer?.hank, w7? Hypocrites.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          W7 is all over me like a fly on sh*t. He knows I’m right most of the time though. Just won’t admit it.

        • Hank says:

          Well I’m okay with anyone’s thoughts on the forecast, but if someone is Debbie downing the winter and i know alot of people on here don’t like that (I didn’t really care that much) ill be ok with it, but what I do care about is if someone is Debbie downing something when conditions don’t agree at all with what they are saying, because that’s spreading misinformation. But this dryer pattern we are in, I don’t care at all if someone is saying “it’s going to be a dry October” mostly because models agree with that (and a little bit of me being biased since I love dry falls” but don’t call me a hypocrite because that is not what I am.

          To be fair, I kinda get how you could think I’m a hypocrite, that might be because I’m not the best at wording stuff.

          -Hank

        • Hank says:

          Actually to be honest, my opinions on then forecast, ect, match up alot with Joshua lake which might be why i don’t say anything like that to Joshua.

          Actually tim, the majority of the time I like and agree with your comments, just some of them really ruin it for me.

        • Hank says:

          Correction, my opinions on the forecast, instead of on then forecast, typo

        • tim says:

          I don’t know when to keep my mouth shut I tend to be pessimistic when I shouldn’t because I don’t always see what we all want in the models short term or long term but sometimes we do get what we want therefore I shouldn’t complain, new la Nina advisory came out today it does look promising.

        • yigablademaster says:

          Nobody should be swatting anybody over being realistic vs wish casting. This is a result of a culture problem that we are neck deep in to the pint that you can’t even make a realistic winter weather prediction without being silenced by the wrong think police.

    • tim says:

      Well then i was wrong Josh for picking on you.although I don’t think I was I just making a point.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I hate being right. The Euro came around to the bust solution for Portland. Wayyyyy drier overall too. It’s like clockwork, folks.

  20. Hank says:

    Well this might take a couple hours but I’m gonna put together the temperatures this year to get a average so far, also I normally do salem but I guess people would like it more if I did Portland

    Jan 2021 avg high, 49.41. Avg January high, 47,
    Feb 2021 avg high, 46.64, Avg February high, 50
    Mar 2021 avg high, 53.09. Avg March high, 56
    Apr 2021 avg high, 61.93. Avg April high, 61
    May 2021 avg high, 68.01. Avg May high 68
    Jun 2021 avg high, 76.43. Avg June high 73, this one shocked me, but I guess the first half of June was well below average
    Jul 2021 avg high, 80.64. Avg July high 80
    Aug 2021 avg high, 80.43. Avg August high 80
    Sep 2021 avg high, 73.87. Avg September high 75
    Oct 1-13 2021 avg high, 60.89. Avg October 1-13 high, 67

    Average high January 1st-October 13th, 66.1

    This year average high January 1st-October 13th, 65.2

    Well that is a shocking average, I was not expecting those results, I was thinking a couple degrees above average, but 1 below?! What a shocking average!

    I would like to hear your guy’s thoughts on this! Also should I do the same thing but with low temps?

    Also for the couple of people who might be curious, took 2 hours 7 minutes 53 seconds (in 2 sittings)

    -Hank

    • Anonymous says:

      I’m surprised the average high ended up being one below. I’d be curious to see the low temps too. Thanks for doing this!

  21. Roland Derksen says:

    We’re into the rainy season here now- the next 2 days will see amounts of 3-4 inches or so. Mid- October often is our time of heaviest rainfalls. Can’t forget Oct16-17, 2003, when i measured over 6 inches in 2 days.

  22. Weatherdan says:

    We are as of yesterday less than 2 inches of precipitation below normal for calendar year 2021. No need to wish for huge rainfall amounts. Just catching up gradually will be just fine. The tv mets have to sensationalize things. With a la nina this Winter we should do just fine. However a hot Summer in 2022 will put us back in a similar situation. Climate change is not our friend. In the meantime I am hoping for about 70 on Saturday. I have some fall outside chores such as cleaning out gutters and I want some sunny weather. Peace.

  23. Zach says:

    Holy cow that 12z euro run is nuts

    • Ken in Wood Village says:

      Yea, I saw that too!! We need to see if the Euro sticks with this trend. The ensembles are look good too.

      • Hank says:

        Oh, so you like fall rain?

        • Zach says:

          It isn’t really a matter of me personally liking wetter Falls, but more just that we need the moisture desperately. The ongoing drought will continue to compound until we start seeing a consistent “wetter than average” pattern.

          I like dry weekends, but otherwise let it pour.

        • Ken in Wood Village says:

          I’m assuming Hank was talking to me!! To answer your question, Yes!! After a very dry spring and summer, we need the rain badly. If you remember, those forest fires need a lot of moisture to be put out. Even though we are not talking about them, they are still burning. They can burn for months (even having this much moisture) but with more moisture, hopefully they will be put out for good.

          Now, I’ll talk a little about the 18Z GFS run. It looks like it’s starting to come around to the Euro. The 12Z GFS run was very dry and now the 18Z run is a little more wet. Let’s see how the next couple of runs do!!

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      It sure is. The GFS is not biting until la la land.

  24. Anonymous says:

    These models are doing a real number on the forecast. I watched the forecast go from dry and cloudy Saturday to straight up rain on Saturday and now to dry and sunny Saturday. All within less than 7 days. Incredible.

    • yigablademaster says:

      That’s why they are ‘models’. Anyways I firmly believe the volcanoes (not the sports team you silly guys) are messing up the medium to long term forecasts. While one volcano isn’t enough there has been a gob of little to medium size events clustered together this last year: You won’t find much press coverage but scattered across the web are pieces of information on these volcanoes.

      One of the biggest ones is the Aleutian Island ones and one in Spain and a couple of others that have been doing a lot of spewing lately so combining them all together is having a ‘net’ effect which I think is helping add to the ‘La Nina’ conditions we are having otherwise it would’ve been pretty similar to last year’s neutral. Enough of these little babies going and something snapped in earth’s balance:

    • yigablademaster says:

      One thing NONE of us should want to see is El Hierro to be rumbling too. There isn’t any good outcome from that:

    • yigablademaster says:

      One of the volcanos rumbling was NEAR the volcano I just mentioned I think just to the north or south of El Hierro. One of the islands nearby had a smaller volcano spew a bunch of crap in the air causing evacuations:

  25. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    I disagree that we are entering a wet pattern. What is your basis for that? We have below normal precipitation already for October and that looks to continue. This weekend is now completely dry on the 6z GFS, and so is the long-term. At face value there would be .25” of rain in the next 11 days.

    We are getting to the time of year where if we don’t see 1.5” – 2” of rain forecasted every 10 days or so, we are behind the curve. The wettest time of the year is almost in our forecast window.

    The 00z Euro was decently wet, but it has been consistently overdoing the QPF forecast. The GEM is remarkably dry just like the GFS. The GFS ensembles are wetter than the operational. The Euro ensembles are a bit drier than the operational.

    So, it is certainly possible that we will be entering a consistently wet period about a week or so from now, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Ensembles have consistently dangled the carrot of a wet pattern in the mid to long-term only to pull the rug out in future runs.

    • Zach says:

      The 00z gfs looks better for Sun/Mon. In my view the 6z has credibility just marginally better than the 18z.

      Otherwise I agree it really isn’t shaping up to be a very wet october

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      The 12z GFS brings back a decent soaking for Sunday. Still dry overall for the next 10+ days. Much drier than the Euro.

      The 00z Euro ensemble run was wet overall, but it appears to be an outlier. The single highest GFS ensemble member has far less rainfall than the median Euro ensemble member.

      • Zach says:

        Oh, yeah I meant the 12z run.

      • Zach says:

        12z Euro op is hanging on. Still pretty wet.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Yep. Euro ensembles are still wet too. GFS ensembles are very dry. 1/4 of the rain compared to the Euro. The average on the GFS is lower than the single lowest member of the Euro. Huge discrepancy long-term.

    • Hank says:

      Well after this dry stretch our conditions add up to wet, who knows how long the conditions will favor dry, nobody. But yes we are going to enter wet conditions, but I personally want it dry, wet October’s suck. Also I noticed this the people who want it wet are saying it will be dry, the people who want it dry say it well be wet.

      -Hank

  26. W7ENK says:

    MSM is already picking up on the idea (from my previous comment.)

    https://abc7ny.com/amp/long-range-forecast-polar-vortex-winter-how-much-snow-this/11112650/

    Interesting, considering the fact that absolutely NO ONE has ANY idea HOW (or even IF) this will play out…

    Who knows, maybe we in the PNW lowlands get a rare pre-Hallowe’en snowfall? It’s not completely impossible.

  27. Ken in Wood Village says:

    I’m surprised no one is talking about the 12Z Euro? I know it’s only one run but it’s amazing how wet it got in one run. Also, back on the 7th, the GFS showed a very strong Low on the 23rd. Now the Euro is showing a 936mb Low on the 21st (it’s not coming close to the PNW but it’s interesting to see another very strong Low again).

    If we went with the Euro and what it’s showing, we could be going into a wet pattern but I like to see if this will be a trend first…lol. Let’s also see if the GFS jumps onboard…lol.

    • Hank says:

      I think most of us can agree we are in/entering a wet pattern, and I also think most of us can agree we want a dry fall, and I think EVERYONE can agree we want a dry Halloween, hated rainy Halloweens as a kid.

  28. Weatherdan says:

    I see not a single comment about the 1962 Columbus Day Storm. It killed 43 people and caused several billions of dollars of damage. Enough trees were blown down to build 300,000 homes and power was out for a week. Winds at their maximum on the coast gusted to 170mph and 120 here in the valley. I was 8 years old then and it scared the you know what out of me. Google it or go to youtube. I hope I never see another epic storm like that again-ever. Peace.

    • Hank says:

      Well it came to my mind, I was thinking about making a huge comment about it, but I decided, it is bad memories for people as you said for yourself. the reason you thought people should’ve commented about it, in my opinion is why we shouldn’t have, I don’t see the purpose of talking about something 59 years ago, every Columbus day, its in the past, only gives people bad memories when you bring it up. And I’m gonna say this, didn’t see you comment about it yesterday so why expect us to?

      -Hank

    • JohnD says:

      Maybe next year will have more commemoration. I was a boy too then but also remember it well, of course. A Category 3 Hurricane equivalent. Years later I attended OCE/WOU where the iconic tower on top of the art bldg. once existed prior to it being blown over by the storm. The photo of it toppling made wire services worldwide.

      • yigablademaster says:

        By next year we will likely be like Lebanon’s power situation the way things are going if there isn’t a major turn around:

        https://www.voanews.com/a/lebanon-power-outage/6264139.html
        BEIRUT —
        Lebanon has no centrally generated electricity after fuel shortages forced its two largest power stations to shut down, a government official told Reuters Saturday.

        “The Lebanese power network completely stopped working at noon today, and it is unlikely that it will work until next Monday, or for several days,” the official said.

    • yigablademaster says:

      Do you think the Columbus Day Storm delayed school at all?

  29. Hank says:

    Rains about to move in, probably will hit downtown Portland and downtown Salem at the same time, should be a couple of downpours mixed in.

  30. Roland Derksen says:

    Speculating about the coming winter is always fun, but as already mentioned it’s not a garauntee that a cold October means a cold winter. i recall seeing snow on Halloween night back in 1984- the winter that followed was cold and snowy, but not in 1991-92.: I saw measurable snow on the ground here in late October 1991, but that was the only snow that came before and after the solstice that time.

  31. Hank says:

    Got a 33.4 here in salem, wind chill all the way down to 27! Pretty cold if you ask me!

    • yigablademaster says:

      Been the trend lately to have our coldest weather mid or late October then a ‘meh’ winter where we all wondered if it was just a dream we had.

      • W7ENK says:

        No Kyle, that is not, nor has that ever been the case. C’mon man.

        Show us that trend, Kyle…

        • Hank says:

          I think he said that because October 2019 and 2020, the last couple nights of the month were like 25 or 26, but those were not the coldest temps of the year, and its not a trend! And if you think a 33 will be the coldest night of the year, I feel bad for you.

        • yigablademaster says:

          That sounds about right Hank. I’m hoping we don’t blow our load too early again…………..I had something like 24 or 23F last year which I thought was too good to be true and it was until Feb’s ice storm. BTW: Not a single snowflake out of it.

  32. W7ENK says:

    Welp…

    And with that, my 2021 gardening comes to a close.

  33. RoRo says:

    Based on the latest meteorological updates with La Niña and the recent developments of the stalled Atlantic Ocean current it looks like we will have a historic ice age type winter. Winter months will yield several feet of snow even into the southern states with very few thaws and devastating blizzards and ice storms. Buckle up!

    • Hank says:

      I’m not one to bust peoples hopeful ideas about winter, but the southern states are warmer and drier in la ninas, and our la nina will either be moderate or severe, if you look at this https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif
      This doesn’t Look like a historic ice age that barely gets above freezing winter, and the atlantic isn’t stalled.

      Also what the heck is this comment section tonight.

      -Hank

      • yigablademaster says:

        I was mentioning wish casting. It usually goes out of control this time of the year. Then usually they’ll say snow to 500 feet at 37F which most of the time is a bust. Especially if there isn’t any cold air to work with.

        • Hank says:

          You were adding alot of extra stuff which made it confusing

        • yigablademaster says:

          I call it the Wish Cast Express and often times it performs SPADS which stands for Signal Passed At Danger: At the VERY least you’ll get chewed out by dispatch if it’s an honest mistake:

      • yigablademaster says:

        I think your right Hank. RoRO is one of those ‘alarmist’ though on the opposite side of the camp: If you go to Global Solar Minimum it’s full of shills. If you comment the truth good luck not getting blocked!

  34. Hank says:

    What in the actual heck is yigablademaster talking about now?

  35. yigablademaster says:

    Edit: Wish Cast Express:

  36. yigablademaster says:

    Anyone see the Wish Cas Express taking off. I sure hope the driver doesn’t perform any SPAD’s this winter. (Signal Passed At Danger) which he ignores the little things on the track that blare a warning at him.
    When he ignores the in-cab horn within like 30 seconds the emergency brakes (breaks?) fully kicks in and the reverser gear is set to neutral until the driver resets it all and gets a good chewing out by dispatch.

  37. Hank says:


    Looking at the South Pacific, I think it’s finally safe to say 100% guaranteed, moderate or severe La Nina, Interesting how the equator is really cold, in typical La Nina’s it’s not that cold, normally equator conditions like that enhance cold but don’t really do much about precipitation. Gulf of Alaska warmed up a bit the last couple of days, (but they are still really cold) because of a warmer storm more from the south went over it, I see that reversing some point this week.
    To those of you comparing this year to 2019-2020 or saying repeat la nina’s are busts, here’s this, #1 don’t compare this coming la nina to el nina 2019-2020 that makes no sense, #2 Normally repeat la ninas the second one is warmer ocean temps, but this year isn’t one of those years, Ocean temps are cooler than last year, blob is cooler, No reason to compare, because weather isn’t like “Oh we got snow last year, can’t happen again this year if it happened last year” Previous conditions have NO impact on the next year’s conditions, All that matters is current conditions not past, and the current conditions are in favor of a colder winter, Stop being such annoying Debbie Downers! I’m looking at you tim

    Models are showing this October to be a bit less active than they were saying a week ago, I think most of us are happy about that, although the models are not really saying that today, we’ll see.

    -Hank

    • Hank says:

      Auto correct turned el nino into el nina, wish I could edit mistakes.

      • yigablademaster says:

        Please memorize the Phonetic Alphabet. It’s there in your driver’s cab. You may need to repeat it to the dispatcher to him/her when requested to do so. Don’t screw up the Wish Cast Express and have a safe journey!

    • yigablademaster says:

      Hi. New driver: Please don’t perform any SPADS. That is (Signal Passed At Danger) actions:

      You REALLY don’t want to get chewed out by the dispatcher.

  38. W7ENK says:

    Heads up, folks: An extremely early-season SSW event is taking shape in the Arctic polar vortex…

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/

    It will be interesting to see how this progresses and how it will impact us here in the PNW. If you’ll recall, I spoke of this a few weeks leading up to last February’s ice storm…

    • Anonymous says:

      What could/would that look like in the PNW at this point in the year?

      • yigablademaster says:

        It would look like the Wish Cast Express going 10km over the track limit. Eventually the new driver realizes his mistake when his score is in the negatives.

    • Jake says:

      This right here, this is what we want to see. A very volatile polar vortex that’s active and rotating into the South from the North Pole.

      Even this early we’d see heavy mountain snow with high risk of avalanches (there’s very little up there with lots of loose terrain).

      A crap ton of freezing rain in the foothills. Valleys would be at high risk of black ice for morning commutes and hard freezes.

      But there’s a big area of question going into such a La Nina. Looking forward to what Mark has to say about this Winter because trends look promising.

      • W7ENK says:

        This is all assuming any cold intrusion into the PNW is accompanied by moisture, which isn’t always the case. Many of our mid-Winter cold snaps / Arctic blasts that result from SSW disruption of the polar vortex end up completely dry. Who knows what one in late October or early November will look like…

        • Jake says:

          Nah I disagree what I mention above could happen with our current factors but I do agree it is unlikely.

          I hope we just don’t end up with a dry cold Winter. That I find so boring. East wind week after week with not much to watch on radar or read about.

          I’ve really noticed over the years that the Rockies, then the Cascades and even the Coastal range to an extent really do protect us from storm development. Probably why this weather blog is so enthusiastic for active weather.

          Then again on the flip side, when something does happen, we both know we have a very hard time pushing the cold air out and thawing. Something Eastern States don’t understand and even make fun of us when they see crashes on the news 4 days after a storm. They’ve never seen our mountainous micro-climates that cause an icebox of doom. Especially the East side where I grew up. The Columbia River Gorge is something special forever to me personally.

  39. W7ENK says:

    Thanks for the update, Mark. Looking forward to your thoughts on this upcoming Winter.

    Hoping it doesn’t freeze here overnight, but I’ve already been down to 37 twice (last night and on Friday morning). If Mark is calling for 36 in the city, I’ll most likely hit 32. Typically, frost will form at ~35 if it’s clear and calm. There go the last my tomatoes! That will probably terminate my cucumbers and beans, too.

  40. Andrew says:

    What was state of PDO the last few winters and what are the trends related to our weather effects. Cold PDO + La Niña feels promising for a more active winter, ideally a more active EARLY winter. Part of me also feels like none of this really matters and it will simply come down to how systems and fronts randomly line up. I’m just crossing my fingers we don’t have another winter with mid to late February action where the narrative invariably devolves to “if this only happened in late December.” My mid-feb, i’m ready to pronounce it a bust winter and move on.

    • Andrew says:

      *“By” mid feb

    • Tanis Leach says:

      Winters 2014-2019 was in the positive phase, 2019-20 was neutral (yes I know there is no neutral, but it was flipping back and forth), and 2020-21 was negative.

      • Anonymous says:

        Good to see you posting again, Tanis! Do you know when the last set of negative PDO winters were prior to 2020-2021?

  41. tim says:

    That anomaly map looks impressive and at some point things will flip, mid westerners are throwing a fit about our cool weather but in return they will get a brutal cold winter.

  42. tim says:

    Well we did have a winter storm this past winter so maybe we’re due for another boring winter again unfortunately, but maybe lightning will strick twice.

    • Hank says:

      You always say something like this, it’s annoying, and facts never back up the stuff you say, We don’t have every other kind of winters, plus comparing this year (la nina) to a el nino makes no sense, weather doesn’t work that way.

      -Hank

      • tim says:

        Mark said a cool October doesn’t mean a cool winter that sounds more negative then what what I said and I’m being positive by saying lightning could struck twice so pick your fight.

      • tim says:

        I’m not predicting the weather in just making a statement it’s not every winter we see a big event like this past winter so keep it real the odds of a another big event back to back are low but can happen.

        • W7ENK says:

          But your “statement” was a prediction though…

          And, I second Hank’s statement: Your “statements” are obnoxious. It’s quite apparent you only come on here to incite discord. Making a “statement” (which surmounts to a forecast, believe it or not, this is a weather blog) claiming that Winter is over before the second full week of October comes to a close is ridiculous and inflammatory. No, Mark didn’t “say so…” Did you read his final little paragraph?

          “… it’s La Niña and a cold PDO this season. Hmmm…we will see.”

          Knock it off, Tim.

%d bloggers like this: