5:30pm Thursday…
It’s been a bit wet at times today, but not exactly a big soaker. This wraps up the month of September AND the “water year”. We use “water years” because we want to put all of each wet season into one “bucket” for historical purposes. Since each wet season in our climate begins Oct/Nov and ends in April, meteorologists across the Western USA have created a “water year”…precipitation from October 1st to September 30th. We will end up with just over 30” this year; the number below will end up a bit higher after the showers today…
Notice we’ve had 4 dry years (lots of drought in Oregon) after two very wet years. Hopefully this winter we can get more rain/snow to recharge groundwater and fill reservoirs. More on that in a later post about the upcoming winter. It’s obvious we have a nice start to October. Both Friday and Saturday will be dry with warming temperatures. Anything above 70 is now considered warm…things change quickly this time of year.
But let’s get on to the big story…
Brian MacMillan is moving on…yes, Brian is leaving KPTV/KPDX here in Portland
After 12 years, my best “weather buddy” is leaving us. No, no one did or said anything offensive or illegal. He’s not getting fired, laid off, and probably won’t leave tire marks in the station lawn on the way out. Nothing like that. Brian has accepted a new position with…wait for it…FOX…13, not 12, in Seattle. I grew up in Chehalis, so I regularly watched Q-13 (KCPQ), just like Brian did since he grew up in the northern suburbs of Seattle. They are making some changes and one is the retirement of longtime morning weather anchor MJ McDermott. So Brian is taking over her morning shift in his “hometown”. It’s a great opportunity for him, but I’m really going to miss that guy!
Brian came here from Bend in 2009 with just a couple years of TV under his belt. Just a young guy with no obligations. During that time he got married, bought a house, and now has two kids. He’s blossomed into a solid meteorologist and reporter that we will miss. The old saying of “jack of all trades, master of none” doesn’t apply to him. He’s really good at just about everything and a solid professional. EVERYTIME I (or a boss) asked him to fill a role, he did it without complaining.
We just finished a brand new FOX12 WEATHER PODCAST (episode #30) and Brian talks about all the different roles/responsibilities he held here at KPTV. We had some great laughs as he went over 12 years of memories and crazy stories. I think this podcast is my favorite of dozens we’ve produced.
Find it on your Apple Podcasts or just go to this link: https://www.kptv.com/podcasts/weather/
One of my favorite memories is Brian (trying) to take a drink up at Women’s Forum viewpoint during a raging easterly wind…now THAT was good TV!
And he could have been a window washer! Luckily the ropes held for this story…
We were recording something at one point and BMAC just jumped at the chance to spray me down. We were aiming for that “sweaty” look, but putting diet coke in a some fancy wine glass just didn’t work out quite right…
And who fills out THIS MANY vacation requests all at once???
I once walked in to this pile of his requests; I left the pile and added the large red DENIED sign. We’ve had a lot of fun!
All those tornadoes? From Aumsville to Manzanita to Longview, we worked them together. I’m really going to miss Brian’s forecasting skills too. I’ll come in during a snow/ice event (or in the lead up to one) or we’ll have a conversation about the meteorology as we compare notes. We almost always have the same forecast, even in those tough winter weather setups.
And of course most of all I’ll miss Brian’s friendship here at work. We’ve shared the ups/downs of family life, (a couple) crazy coworkers, training new employees, conversations about COVID, riots, elections, deck staining, roof replacement, strawberry varieties, ties, suits, music, etc… You only see us for a few minutes at a time on TV, but remember we work together for 8 hours each day behind the scenes just like “regular” office folks. Brian is the nicest guy, always positive, and always asks his coworkers “how things are going”. I’ve learned a lot from him! Luckily, we’ll only be three hours apart via freeway…not too far away. Always time for a little Seattle vs. Portland gossip right?
So… to wrap it up, we’re losing a great employee but in a good way I suppose. New experiences are one of the best parts of life.
Good Luck Brian!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
I thought I would post this. The NWS has issued a freeze watch for our area.
https://tinyurl.com/382dxc5d
Interesting that pdx will freeze but seattle won’t I think increasing clouds from the NW Monday night will keep western WA warmer then further south.
Has the annual Weather Conference @ OMSI date/time for this year been announced yet? Couldn’t find it on the OMSI site. Maybe someone already posted about it previously; but I’m behind on my blog trawls!😒 Thanks.
Oh—just saw on AMS: 10/23 @ 10:00 a.m.!
A cell that just went over battleground like 30 40 minutes ago, looked pretty similar to the one that turned into a Tornado last time, same location too, although coming from a different direction this time.
Also wind is going insane in salem right now
I think it’s going to be one of those days were showers will just pop up out of the blue and could develop into a thunderstorm really quickly. I think it could be a active day 🙂
00z has a nice little warm up around the 20th Indian summer?, maybe.
I was watching the 00Z GFS run and for some reason, it seems a little off to me. If it was me, I would throw it out.
There does seem to be a warming trend with the GFS, but we all know the GFS tends to exaggerate anomalies.
It’s funny though, I keep thinking my motorcycle season is over only to be surprised the following weekend with favorable temps and dry weather.
At this point I really don’t mind what the weather does. Seems we’ve got the perfect blend of rainy and dry days sprinkled with some cool and warm temps. Something for everyone 😎👍
A couple days at 65-70 in mid October is hardly an indian summer.
I got to thinking about something I saw on Channel 12 news yesterday and this morning. It’s about the Beluga whale up in the Tacoma waters. Hank has been posting the water temperatures (which I hope you will keep doing 😉) which is showing colder temperatures. I’m thinking because of the water temperatures are colder, that’s why the Beluga whale is so far South 🤔 its just a thought 🤔
One of the coolest and soon active October in years, can’t complain can we.
Love the coolness. Actually feels like fall. I will believe the active part when I see it. It keeps getting pushed back or weakening.
Loving the late October weather in early October! It makes up for the brutal summer.
Hard pass on that…. keep it warm!
The warm season(s) are over, tough luck for you.
Are you talking to yourself?
I haven’t totalled up my water year number this time, because i moved to a new location in December- but just looking at the first 9 months of this year, my amount from January to October is right around average : 102%. however 2 months made up over half of it: January and September.
18z has a 949mb low just offshore has that ever happened before? my guess probably not after all it is the 18z.
That storm would be amazing!
One thing I did notice (and I think everyone needs to start watching) is how strong the Jetstream is getting. On the 23rd, there are winds over 200 knots for the Jetstream (that’s if this run comes true!!). If the Jetstream keeps getting stronger, I think we could have a descent chance of a major windstorm. That’s if it keeps getting as strong as the models are showing!
I looked at the 12Z and 18Z GFS and I will admit, I’m a little impressed (that’s if these runs actually would happen). If the GFS is right, we would be going into a very active pattern. I know it’s a long ways off but it’s worth watching.
It is looking increasingly likely that Sunday and early next week is going to bust. Maybe .25’’ total for the next week. Let’s see if the 00z GFS gives in to the Euro. The 00z ICON did a 180 and bowed down to the king. The GFS will at some point in the next few runs and then it’s game over.
Our active October is turning into a drier than normal first half of the month. Cool though which is nice.
Cool, is an understatement. Downright chilly if you ask me.
Hudson Bay is warmer than Mexico:
https://news.yahoo.com/hudson-bay-warmer-mexico-thanksgiving-105807639.html
The backtracking has begun on the 00z GFS. Not a full retreat… yet.
I was looking at 00Z and the 06Z GFS this morning. I normally don’t have time to look at it because I’m getting ready for work but I woke up a little earlier than normal so now i have time…lol.
If you look closely, the 00Z and 06Z on the GFS look exactly like the 00Z Euro. Maybe the Euro is starting to come around to the GFS…lol. The only difference is the GFS has a lot more moisture with those systems coming in. I’m not believing the GFS past 240 hours though, its just a little to far out. But it would be interesting to see if the multiple lows form after 240 hours.
The GFS bow down is complete on the 12z. Dwindled down to .25” through Sunday. How many times have we seen this happen?
Mark’s forecast for Sunday already went from ”wet day” to ”rain to showers”. Any steady rain that falls will be before we wake up. He will probably change it to ”showers” later today.
I don’t know we sure didn’t see it in September. Every system that hits Oregon isn’t going to be a complete soaker.
Also it shows precip through late Monday. Looks like closer to 0.5″ through then.
lol
Why are you like this, Joshua? This fatalist attitude of yours is incredibly tiresome, and FWIW, it hasn’t really panned out for you at all yet this season.
As for that “King” title, EURO fell off the throne a year or so ago. Case in point would be the big ice storm last February. EURO’s handling of that in the lead up was abysmal, the model came off as completely clueless even right at the onset of the event. It was so bad, the AI driving that model should be ashamed of itself. EURO also completely botched the extreme “Heat Dome” at the end of June, as well as this last series of rainy systems. The EURO plays catch-up more often than not anymore. Your undying faith in “King EURO” is comical.
I actually don’t have more faith in the Euro than the GFS in general. Maybe in overall pattern details, but not necessarily in fine details.
In this case, the trend was obvious. And looky at Mark’s forecast now for Sunday.
Yes, a couple of events over-performed in September. We’re still at about a 90% bust ratio in 2021. And, I have correctly called many of them before the rug was undoubtedly pulled.
I am excited about the monster low lurking off shore in the long-term. If that puppy moves a little closer to us, it could be really fun.
Accuweather posted an interesting story about the record cold season in Antarctic…from April to September they recorded at the South Pole station average temperature of -78 F for the season coldest in 60 years…station has been recording temps since 1957. Coldest temp this season was -110.9 below zero F. It will be interesting what happens up North this winter season if there is any correlation.
Cliff mass new post, apparently the effects of la Nina are happening now, I thought the effects of enso don’t happen until after the first of the year as both mark and cliff have mention in the past but what the heck do I know.
If I didn’t know the calendar and you told me it was the end of October I’d believe it so. Apart from being a tad too warm I’d never guess right because of how active the weather has turned. I frankly am loving it especially for hiking. The forest is really bouncing back with greenery.
What were the expected rain totals for today? Seems like this system might be over performing.
I think NWS had called for about 0.25″ across the metro. Many gauges in the N / NW area saw closer to 0.5″
https://or.water.usgs.gov/non-usgs/bes/precip.html
Seems like my rain predictions I made on Thursday are going pretty well, my station here in Salem has gotten .34 Inches of rain, My friend in Portland’s station has gotten .45 So far! Seems like my highly doubted prediction worked out! (Original forecast on Thursday was .3-.5 in Salem, .4-.7 In Portland)
Update on Ocean Temperatures
South pacific still cooling, looks like we will enter Moderate or Severe La Nina at this rate, Gulf of Alaska still cooling, Blob still moving west and overall cooling down, The rainstorm this weekend coming from the North with cold air should get rid of most of the warm waters from 145W To our coast, and after that the waters affecting us will be average or below average, Very good news for snow lovers.
-Hank
Won’t the warming in region 1.2 effect region 3.4 as it moves west ward?.
I’m a native and have hated – loathed even – the rainy season for as long as I can remember, but I’ve generally been in the minority. I get major SAD symptoms and no amount of sun-lights or vitamin D has been able to fix it. Luckily I’m able to keep it together until mid-January when I start whining about the dark days. Taking all that into consideration, my feelings around the gloomy season changed after last year’s fires and doubly so for this year’s drought. I have a new appreciation for our diverse weather seasons and rain. We absolutely need it.
If people are honestly complaining about rain in October at the tail end of a drought and record heat, honestly you do not belong here, period. California, Arizona, or Texas is where you should be. That’s not some kind of xenophobic statement; that’s a rational response to irrational opinions. Why are you here?
What makes Western Oregon so attractive is the rain in the first place. Without the rain, you don’t have the greenery to admire all Summer long. That’s what makes it worth it all.
Well said!
Hear, hear!
I agree. I didn’t like all the rain in Portland so I did something about it. I moved to central Oregon. If people don’t like the weather they need to move or just stop complaining about it. Our old fashioned northwest weather is some of the most least life threatening in the world so it doesn’t need to change
That is still very active gloomy weather region by those in the South. I was out hiking on South Sisters a few Summers ago and my brother and his friend went with me.
My brother the whole hike was giving me crap for trying to usher us along at a set pace because of the thunderstorm warning for the region. After I saw a thunderstorm to our South I especially didn’t give any heed to his whining.
When we got back to the vacation home a cell went through the area. It rained so hard there was 2 inches of water around the house / cars. It didn’t look like much due to the Ponderosa (one of my favorite trees) big pine needles in that area but if you looked close at the ground you realized they were floating lol!
For Portland area homes that would have spelled water spilling through the foundation vents that they all often have very close to the ground. The water was rushing around that much.
I am also a native Oregonian and have lived here all my life. I don’t need record heat. But I do want normal October warmth. I.E 60,s and 70,s with an 80 or 2 early in the month. The rain will come as it always does. And I am in no hurry to speed it along. You could have 60 inches of rain in the Winter and a hot Summer and the lawns go brown. That’s just reality. If you can’t stand the new reality of global warming then do something about it. Our climate is warming and with it our trees and shrubs and lawns will change too. I too have SAD and loved this Summer except those few days over 100. So I will long for those sunny warm days of Summer and have no plans to move. Peace.
I’ve been noticing the Portland radar seems to not pick up a lot of the rain echoes but when I switch to the Langley radar up in Washington, it picks up good rain echoes along the Oregon Coast. I think they need to fix the radar again. It use to pick up the rain echoes before but now it’s barely picking them up 🤔
If models are right we could have the wettest October on record, what does the mean for November and December? death ridge or more of the same, well see.
This wet\ cool pattern does look like a classic la Nina setup with the ridge south of the aleutian island and a trough over us.
The effects of la Nina or El Nina aren’t supposed to happen until after the first of the year so the upcoming la Nina pattern is unusual.
Looks drier than average for the foreseeable future to me. Models are really backing off.
As a lifelong W Oregonian, I’ve personally always pulled for the invigoration and enchantment of snowy winters. Maybe having been born during one of our classics has something to do with that! Back in school years I aspired to a possible career in meteorology but ended up in a liberal arts mode—with weather as a perennial hobby.
As far as “El Nino”, “La Nina” and “ENSO Neutral” cycles go, I’ve basically given up trying to find correlations between those phenomena and what transpires during the winter when one or the other prevails. We have experienced all types of winter weather during each over the years—and certainly predating to before they were even given names. Just my 2 cents.
Definitely looking forward to the coming season, no matter what!
I hope every storm falls apart like they’ve been doing and we have a mellow winter again. Everyone I’ve talked to is dreading winter and the gross gloom, rain and cold. Come on blob, stick around and do your thing!
Really!! I’m not wishing for all snow but I’m hoping we have active weather this fall/winter season. The one reason why we are in a drought is because our fall/winter last year was very dry. We need these storms to bring the water base back up to normal. That will include having snow up in the mountains but I wouldn’t mind a couple of snow days in the valleys!!
The one thing I have learned over the years, it’s just go with the flow. I know people wish they wouldn’t be bothered by the weather but it’s Oregon. Get over it. If they don’t like this type of weather, then they shouldn’t have moved to the PNW. Sorry for being a pain but I hear this every year. All I can say is get prepared.
I Noted in my last comment i wanted to know what is everyones favorite type of winter weather is, you answered my question without reading it!
I don’t mind having snow in the valley for a day or two but then it can go away. What I like about fall/winter is having a active season. We didn’t have any active weather the past few months, its time for people who love rain, wind and snow to have their time. That’s why I love fall/winter!
This month is a little hard on me because on the 24th, it will have been one year since my mom passed away. Mom loved this time of the year. She especially loved snow. That’s why I’m hoping we have some snow this year.
Rain, rain, and rain. I love dark, gloomy days.
I like a mix of almost everything during the winter – gloomy days, lots of rain, a handful of sunny but cold days, a few good snow days, one big snow storm, etc. Absolutely hate ice (especially after last winter) and days that are too “warm” for winter. We get enough of those during the summer.
What I am tired of is extremes. Extreme heat, rain, wind, drought. Portland shuts down when it snows, all the storm drains, roads and houses flood when we get crazy rain storms, wind storms wreak havoc on everything and obviously droughts dry everything to a crisp and our forest fires get worse. We don’t need 3″ of rain in 1 day and we don’t need 60mph gusts of wind, nor do we need a foot of snow lingering for a week that turns to ice. 20 years ago the weather was great, boring and damp for 6 months and boring and dry for another 6. (give or take). I’ll take that weather over anything that we’ve been having lately and unfortunately, as much as I’d like to move away, I am too rooted to pick up and start a new life somewhere currently….
There’s absolutely no way you can compare the extremes we get with what happens in other parts of the country. All over the U.S., places are hit with severe tornadoes, flooding rains, destructive hurricanes, 120-degree heat for weeks on end, 90-degree heat with 90 percent humidity day after day in the summer, damaging thunderstorms, brutal cold for weeks on end, life-threatening snowstorms, etc., etc., etc. The Pacific NW gets months of drizzle in the winter, months of showery weather in the spring, months of dry, sunny and 80s weather in the summer, and months of crisp alternating sunny, cloudy and rainy days in the fall. Hardly apocalyptic. Despite recent trends, we still have some of the most benign, calm weather in the whole country.
Climate models are hinting at el Nino development by next summer so we better get some action this winter otherwise it could be quite some time.
Link didn’t work, I’ll try again
https://i.ibb.co/LYcjkWv/ssta-animation-90day-large-1.gif” alt=”ssta-animation-90day-large-1
Followed every step
I’m just gonna give the link,
Notice gulf of Alaska cooling down and blob going away!
And la nina forming
The original link worked, so much for imgbb
Notice how the Central Pacific is cooling a lot faster than areas further east? Maybe the La Niña variant called La Niña Modoki is forming, which is apparently really good for PNW precipitation:
https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-la-nina-modoki-risk-later-this-year-2/
The La Nina is looking Extremely likely, possible extreme La Nina, mark normally posts about this stuff in mid October, I’m waiting for that to be more confident about this winter, but its looking pretty good for snow lover’s.
Also question for everyone, What type of winter is your favorite? I Have a guess what most people will say, and I’ll say my opinion, I Like 35-50 Inches of snow Lots of cold weather, a few good rainstorms, other than that dry. Part of the reason I’m moving to Montana next year, conditions match up!
8-10 days out looks exceptionally cold in the overnight hours… and that system moving in is massive… looking like another 2in+ yeah? November seems to be arriving early with that one
Which system are you talking about? I’m not home so I can’t see the models.
The cpc is going crazy with below normal temps and above normal rain for the next two weeks only if this could happen in Dec or Jan but we all know February is were it’s been happening the past few years.
2013 was the last regional artic outbreak it’s like pulling teeth now just to get one, I say we’re long overdue.
Frankly I don’t even recall that arctic outbreak. They’re so far in between and so marginal to modified arctic events I have a hard time noting the difference?
Do we have to be in the teens for highs or what constitutes it all really? Serious question.
Mark posted a graphic in October of 2013 saying he considers highs of 30 or below arctic (especially with lows in the teens).
It didn’t get that cold in Portland, but brutal in other parts of the state:
https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2013/12/oregon_weather_a_list_of_towns.html
Well then again maybe were not due for a artic outbreak since1972 was the last major one prior to 2013, 40 years vs 10.
I guess will have to wait another 30 years for the next big one.
Okay some interesting stuff to think about because right now I’m surprised we’re getting another La Nina. Granted the one last year came very late in the Winter.
Still we had some wild Winter storms in February. I would pass on a repeat of those power outages though. Never had to use a generator till that icestorm after the snowstorm the power transistors were popping like popcorn during the thawing.
With highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s that checks out. I’m liking the above average precip no matter what the temperatures are
With the advent of our active seasons just arriving I thought I’d show this.
Looks like Hawaii’s waters are quite busy right now:
https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/2-tropical-areas-to-monitor-in-the-pacific/
Wondering if these systems have anything to do with our weather models having a tough time predicting storms as these are rumbling and feeding the jet stream moisture at times. To me this is all a promising sign of an ideal La Niña for the PNW.
For those interested in introductory on what a El Niño or La Niña are for the Eastern Pacific Ocean I really like this video:
https://lostcoastoutpost.com/videos/2021/aug/26/el-nino-and-la-nina-weather-patterns-explained/
Also I want to mention that while we’ve had some good above normal rainfall for monthly averages. Statistically the ground soil is still very much in a drought. The recent rains have only really stomped out the fires and that’s it:
https://nasagrace.unl.edu/
I’m looking at the 12Z GFS and Euro model and I noticed something on both of them. If you look really closely, you can see a low forming and going towards Seaside (or somewhere around there). It’s not really strong at this time (around 1004mb or so) and has wind gusts around 50+ knots before it makes landfall.
It will be interesting to watch to see if this Low will get any stronger in the next couple of runs. When we get closer, the HRRR will have a better handle on how strong this Low will become before making landfall.
Just something I noticed on the 12Z run. What’s even more interesting is both models are showing this low and were it’s going. 🙂
CFSv2 runs are typically showing 5-7 low pressures (32 day run) it seems most people into weather can agree starting some point next week, also look at blob cooling down! Hopefully link works
https://ibb.co/x69BGCf
The link doesn’t work ;( I’ve tried using that site to do pictures but for some reason it won’t work for me 😦
You guys keep missing one VERY crucial step…
Additionally, it doesn’t appear that .gif images work with this site, so you you will have to convert any .gif images to .png or .jpg format before uploading them. That’s easy to do, just open the image with MS Paint (or similar program) and save-as to the correct format.
I’m thinking we will be seeing a more cooler and wetter pattern for at least the next 10 days (if not more). I’ve seen this pattern before were we stay in a cool pattern for awhile. I don’t think we will see 70’s for the rest of the year (maybe!!).
I think this fall/winter will be much cooler and wetter this year then we have seen for a long time. The reason why I saw this is just what I’m seeing with the pattern. Some people said October could be a dry month but I think it could be one of the wettest months we have seen in a long time.
Just my thoughts!!
You are a terrific “weather watcher” and I think your prediction might be spot on.
Thank you 😊 I just noticed I said “saw” when I should have said “say” lol.
https://ibb.co/9VpZMg1
Found this, can real notice the south pacific cooling down! Gulf of Alaska dramatically cooled down in the past week, also can notice blob cooling down on our side and moving more west, as I mentioned before.
How come some people get that link to work but not others!
Would like some tips.
1 more try
https://ibb.co/9VpZMg1
1 more this link might actually work
The climate models are showing cooling continuing through the winter especially the cansips, It would be nice not to have any influence from the blob for once.
18z gfs 4.4 inches of rain in Salem 5.79 in Portland, not going to happen.
Is it me or does the Pacific look unusually active for early October on the models?.
It’s just you, Tim. Why would an active Fall pattern over the Pacific look unusual in October? I’m genuinely curious.
The 18z is the worst run, I dont even bother looking at it.
Agreed
I see 4.85’’ total. 4’’ of which is more than 12 days out. 75 miles north has half the rain. In other words… worthless.
.10’’ in the next 8 days is a roundabout figure you can bank on. Very dry first 10 days of October.
The wet season doesn’t typically ramp up until late Oct anyway.
After how epic those two systems in September were, I won’t start to complain unless we go through Oct with less than 2″
Also, I would say its a good thing some of these systems are dipping south into CA. They need the rain desperately.
I sure am glad I didn’t make that move to Montana. They had a loooong winter followed by very hot summer. Middle of next week Missoula is at 80 degrees only to follow that up a few days later with some potential snow fall. Yup, definitely not my cup of tea. I think I’ll stay put for a while, but these hot Oregon summers are unbearable, so NW WA is looking more attractive each year.
I’m torn between Bellingham and Leavenworth, but leaning towards the latter because of the 90” average snow! Hoping to move to one of the two in a few years.
I’m probably going to move to either Kalispell MT Whitefish MT Sandpoint ID and Maybe Coeur d’alene ID but they are a bit too warm and overpopulated, probably will wait till after la nina winter, a bit challenging to move during that
Here’s a low resolution look at snowfall during the 20 La Niña winters that occurred from 1950-2008:
Basically, in Portland, 60-70% had above average snowfall. How much above average? Hard to tell because the graphic doesn’t take local geography into account.
Looks way snowier in North Washington and Idaho, guess that makes sense since la nina favors them most with Jetstream. Kinda surprised it doesn’t go higher than +11, north cascades north rockies get like 30+ inches of snow if not more. Also don’t remember where I saw this but it said Portland had +6 inches, salem +5 inches.
Commented this on the last blog, was meant for Tim since we were discussing this coming winter, don’t think you saw this because mark posted this blog right after I commented on the last one. So I’ll copy and paste.
Yes it was the warmest la nina last year (probably, but I don’t want to look into it) But that has nothing to do with this la nina, especially because it’s a colder ocean setup this year, and the blob is a decent amount more west this year which will make a big difference. cean temperature anomalies this year
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
And then there is 2020, have to scroll down a bit for pic
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/enso-global-ocean-weather-influence-spring-united-states-summer-europe-fa/
Different link and map, but that was all I could get for last year, but the point is, the hottest spot in the blob is 2300 miles farther away from us than last year, unlike last year, most important part of South America coast has below average water temperature unlike last years above average, the part of the blob affecting us most is 1 Celsius cooler than last year. You may notice in last years picture the overall ocean was a bit cooler than now, thats because it was in late December which that period of time makes a big difference since that’s when the ocean cooling is most rapid, but by that time this decrember it will be cooler than last year.
My point is, there is no reason this winter will be warmer than last winter, but technically since anything could happen in weather, it could be warmer than last winter, but conditions don’t back it up being a thing likely enough thing to happen that its worth talking about. Correct me if I’m wrong.
-Hank
I don’t know if I would consider .20” or so a rain storm. Late next weekend has some good potential.
I’m pretty sure you meant to reply to my other comment, but anyways to my point, the models did that for the last storm, only
Showed higher number precipitation once we got close to the storm, I’m guessing .45-.85 inches, big range i know but theres a lot of uncertainty so a range seems more logical.
Don’t look at the 00z GFS. Totally evaporated. I like your optimism, but I have seen this movie many times before.
9 days from today is our next shot at meaningful rainfall. But, that appears to be falling apart too. We just can’t get into a consistently wet pattern. Fall is still young though.
Yeah totally evaporated on 00z, not giving up on it yet though, but next weekend has some Potential, but too far out for me take it somewhat seriously
Anyone else noticing the rain storm starting to trend more next week on Tuesday and Wednesday?
No signs of a Indian summer during the next two weeks, I don’t think we had one yet this fall I’m assuming we get one every year.
3.76″ of rain for pdx this September. Not bad, and hope the trend keeps up.
Congrats Brian! You will be missed!
Congrats to Brian! Too bad for you though, you’re gonna miss him, but Seattle is gonna be happy! Sounds like he will be ready for anything now. Happy Friday everyone!
Surprised he went to Seattle, I never liked it personally, but he grew up there and it likely pays more so it is a understandable decision. I wish you the best of luck Brian.
Nice going Brian! We love Seattle! (Except when their snow totals exceed ours!)
Sad to see Brian leave, but congrats on the new opportunity! Seattle is a great town, I visit often, looking forward to seeing and hearing him on the TV up North!
You will be missed Brian 😢 I hope your new job will be as successful as this one!
CFSv2 does not show precipitation, but it shows 850mb temperatures, 5 Low pressures coming over us in the month of October, 2 back to back Extreme rainstorms, lots of models showing us having a wet October starting next weekend, we’ll see
Tried to post that as a comment not a reply 🙄