Hot Summer Temps Are Gone For At Least A Week

9pm Monday…

The heatwave ended today; a beautiful blue sky, temperatures in the 80s, and much lower relative humidity

That was after a sweaty six days of 90+ degree weather, peaking midweek with the 102 and 103

What’s Ahead?

  1. There’s no sign of a heat wave, or even 90 degree temperatures, in Portland during the next 7-9 days
  2. Other than a sprinkle/shower tonight & Tuesday morning, or a light weekend shower, the dry spell continues
  3. This next week will have that “the heat of summer is over” feel. Nights are getting longer and we’ll be cooler each morning
  4. Expect more cloud cover, especially mornings Friday through next weekend.
  5. Most likely we’ll turn warmer again during the last full week of the month (after the 24th)

Sunday was our 24th day at/above 90 in Portland. That’s the 3rd highest number of those hot days…after 2015 & 2018.

With two weeks to go in meteorological summer (June-August), many parts of the Pacific Northwest are on track for the hottest summer on record. That includes Portland, Salem, Eugene, Medford, Olympia, Pendleton, Burns, & Redmond. It’s interesting that North Bend isn’t even close. That’s because that location is dependent on warmer than normal ocean waters for a “hot summer”. And 1997 is the all-time high there due to the Super-Nino that year.

Of course we still have two weeks to go. This next week looks a bit cooler than average; starting with a mainly dry cold front passing overhead this evening. You’ve probably noticed the cool northwesterly breezes, clouds, and quickly dropping temps. This is associated with a cool upper-level system dropping down into Eastern Washington. Another one drops in over us or just to the east again around Friday. The result is more typical late summer weather; onshore flow plus cloud cover at times, then sunny periods. You can see the ECMWF forecast for the next week, showing a strong upper-level ridge (above normal heights in the higher atmosphere) in the Gulf of Alaska. That leads to lower than normal heights and upper-level troughing over Idaho. This is the pattern that gave us a dry and cool-ish spring at times.

But most models (including this one) show the ridging edging closer to us NEXT week. This is Sunday the 22nd through Sunday the 29th; a warmer pattern again, although not necessarily hot.

Both patterns (this week and next) are relatively dry; there’s no sign we have a late summer showery pattern setting up.

Enjoy the comfortable weather the rest of this week! Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

74 Responses to Hot Summer Temps Are Gone For At Least A Week

  1. tim says:

    June gloom in august which is nice I’m sure at some point will get another warm up before fall finally sets in, hopefully not another September 2020 redux.

  2. Anonymou says:

    The thing I don’t get is how wrong all the weather reporting sites are wrong about the weather constantly. Friday and yesterday were supposed to be partly sunny with “clearing” and normal temps, but if you call the 2 minute break in clouds “clearing”, then there needs to be a discussion on new terminology for clearing. Why don’t sites just saying it’s going to be cloudy and gross the whole day? Why can’t anyone get it right? All this sophisticated weather tech and nobody can tell you when/if it’ll get sunny… and for the life of me I’ll never understand how a city 90 miles from the beach still gets beach weather. It’s stupid.

    • Anonymous says:

      We got a decent afternoon clearing in some parts of the metro area. Mark has got into detail many times on why pinpointing weather in this region is extremely difficult. You should go back and read some of those in the archives.

  3. Anonymous says:

    If there’s one thing that Mark has been consistent on it’s that predicting the forecast or any sort of weather pattern more than 14 days out is a futile effort. Taking the increased occurrence of extreme weather events into consideration along with the profound impact to the ecosystem from that and the cascading effects of that, it’s become apparent that any sort of prediction on long term weather expectations is a coin toss at best. We had a very mild January followed by a very cold February followed by a very dry spring followed by a very hot summer. Nobody predicted those. So when guys like Parsons or Cliff Mass talk about “so and so pattern in the next season”, I’d take that with a grain of salt. It’s a huge guess with small amounts of science and historical data sprinkled on top. We could end up extending the dry weather pattern well into winter for all we know.

    • Gene says:

      You’re so right about all of that. So many of the predictions in the comments section of this site on local weather in 2020-21 have turned out to be wildly inaccurate, though it’s always fun to read people’s thoughts about future weather. On a different note, why are so many people commenting lately under the “anonymous” title instead of under their selected name? Or is it just one person making many comments under “anonymous”?

  4. Weatherdan says:

    The dry spell continues. Now at 67 consecutive days. Record is 90 in 2018 and 2nd is 79 in 1967. Interesting to see what happens next 23 days. Peace.

  5. W7ENK says:

    Fascinating, very comprehensive site looking at The Blob from a bunch of different angles. Quite a good bit of history on it, too.

    https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/cc-projects-blobtracker

  6. W7ENK says:

    Picked up an unforecasted and therefore completely unexpected tenth of an inch of rain overnight. Glad I felt and smelled it coming when I went to bed last night and decided to throw a tarp over my working table in the yard, otherwise I would have lost a bunch of old photos, old baseball cards, and a lot of my radio/electronics!

    The purge continues…

  7. Jake says:

    Another morning with wet cars interesting to see this happen again for a 2nd morning.

  8. tim says:

    A cool crisp dry fall would be great for raking leaves and going to pumpkin patches, who wants a wet muddy mess during harvest time.

  9. tim says:

    The Cfs model is showing much warmer then normal temps for September so another 2020 redux is looking very likely at this point, not good for wildfires, Bonney lake WA took a big hit last September from the devastation fires as well as Oregon, the new norm.

    • Anonymous says:

      No it’s not. Pete Parsons released his Sept – Nov seasonal climate forecast a couple of days ago and says that September is going to be average or below average temps with near or slightly above precip.

      • tim says:

        I’m coming from what the cfs model is showing I don’t care about pete parson outlook he should base it on climate models and weather models not personal options.

        • tim says:

          With do all respect of course.

        • Zach says:

          I wouldn’t put much weight on what the long range CFS says either…

        • Hank says:

          My forecast for September from decades of experience with weather, a storm in the first half of September, the rest of it slightly below average precip and above average temperature, but in October we get more precip than average and same/below average temps

    • tim says:

      If I seem a little pissed that’s because I have friends in Bonney Lake that lost there homes from wildfires I have to believe what models are showing and not someone’s personal opinion, better safe then sorry.

    • tim says:

      If I seem a little pissed that’s because I have friends in Bonney Lake that lost there homes from wildfires I have to believe what models are showing and not someone’s personal opinion, better safe then sorry.

  10. Hank says:

    Today is the 69th day I haven’t recorded rain at my weather station in North salem metro, record to beat is 90, 39 days of 90± 7 days of 100+, actually they were all 102+!

    -Hank

  11. Boring Oregon says:

    0.02″ of rain earlier this morning. Currently overcast and 61.

  12. Hank says:

    2016-2017 and 2017-2018 repeating la nina, 2016-2017 very above average snow very above average rain very below average temp, 2017-2018 a less extreme 2016-2017

    2010-2011 and 2011-2012, 2010-2011 above average snow and rain very snow mountains and a bit below average temps, 2011-2012 below average temps very above average rain, a bit above average snow

    2007-2008 and 2008-2009 repeating la nina, 2007-2008 very cold snowy and rain, 2008-2009 EXTREMELY cold snowy and rainy

    1998-1999 1999-2000 2001-2002 three peat la nina, 1998-1999 very snowy and rainy and colder, 1999-2000 a bit more extreme then 1998-1999, 2000-2001 a typical la nina

    1983-1984 and 1985-1986 repeat la nina, 1983-1984 extremely snowy and cold 1984-1985 even more extreme

    1973-1974 1974-1975 1975-1976 three peat la nina, all of them pretty extreme, 1975-1976 a bit more extreme than the previous years

    This point on is when my data is less accurate from now on, but it’s still accurate

    1970-1971 and 1971-1972 repeating la nina, 1970-1971 above average snow and rain and pretty cold, 1971-1972 more snowy the the year before, but everything else is pretty much the same.

    1954-1955 and 1955-1956 repeating la nina, 1954-1955 VERY cold and snowy, 1955-1956 VERY EXTREME COLD And extremely snowy

    So from what I looked into, this upcoming winter should be similar to last year or much more intense, it’s like a 40 45 15 chance, much more intense 45% similar 40% other 15%

    But what I’m saying isn’t 100% facts, but it goes with averages, plus we are kinda over due for a 2008-2009 winter

    • Hank says:

      Your welcome Anonymous (only name I know you have)

    • Anonymous says:

      Thank you so much! Winter was pretty tame last year until February, it would be nice to have a front loaded one since it seems like we’ve missed out on those for the past several winters. I’d love a repeat of 08/09

  13. tim says:

    Cliff mass new post on la nina, of course that could mean the warmest one on record like last winter, seems to be the case now with la nina.

    • Hank says:

      Yeah the new post was good, but it’s rare for la Nina’s to be how it was last winter, that was just the dice coming up as 6s, and the la Nina’s before last one were normal, so us getting 2 warm la Nina’s in a row is very unlikely

    • Anonymous says:

      Does anyone know how second year La Ninas typically fare vs. year one of them? Really hoping for lots of rain this fall and above average lowland snow. Sans ice this time, thanks.

  14. Oliver Watson says:

    Is it just me or does it seem like something in the atmosphere has completely shut down the Pacific from giving us nothing more than a few sprinkles. I think this is going to carry on well into fall or beyond. I would love some expert analysis on this

    • W7ENK says:

      It happens every year, it’s called Summer. It just settled in a bit earlier than usual this year. Once the Aleutian Low sets back up, weather in the Northern Hemisphere will become more active again. Just sit tight, no need to worry…

      • Hank says:

        Exactly W7ENK, it’s just summer, it never rains this time of year.

        Off topic statement, I know another Oliver Watson he is a nice guy, would be funny if you were them, but you probably aren’t

      • Michael says:

        I have worked outside for a long time and there seems to me something abnormal. Of course I hope very strongly that I am wrong but, on the basis of over 40 years of outdoor work, I know it has changed. I think it has to do with the amount of pollution in the air. Used to never smell like a stale polluted air in the mornings. Used make one feel more alive, awakening in the mornings, like up in the mountains. It was as though the atmosphere had more vitality, more energy. I wonder about plankton numbers in our oceans. Are they dwindling? Very very important topic right there.

        • Hank says:

          What your saying is and isn’t true, our air quality hasn’t gone up a noticeable amount, unless you go to downtown Portland. And probably why you feel less alive is because you are older now,
          Or your memories are from fall spring or winter, because during the summer air quality is much higher in the mountains because of fires. or because our current weather pattern gives us a more active wildfire season, which makes us have higher air quality.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      It may appear to have shut down, but don’t kid yourself- it can rev up anytime. Can you recall what happened near the end of August 2015?

  15. Jake says:

    Surprised how cool and drizzly it was yesterday. More of this and less of the 90F+ stuff. Cheers.

    • Hank says:

      The cool air was nice, amazing hiking weather! But sadly where I live didn’t get a drop of rain, been that way for 67 days, but I’m happy atleast Portland got rain, just hoping next time salem gets it too.

      Remember to enjoy next week though, probably the end of summer!

  16. tim says:

    00z gfs is looking more progressive at the end of the run hopefully it will hold.

    • Hank says:

      Yeah the end looks really nice, but the end of gfs or euro isn’t even forecasting, just random weather. But here’s a off topic question for you, would you rather 2021-2022 winter be the warmest winter ever, or the coldest winter ever? I myself would pick coldest.

  17. Hank says:

    It always is so boring here when nobody comments, but in winter there’s a new comment every 5 minutes! I’m excited for that!

  18. Hank says:

    I just realized, old farmers almanac and farmers almanac are both out now as of today, mark if you read this, it’s that time of year again for the yearly post on the almanac forecasts!

  19. Hank says:

    Anyone else see cliffs new post? Seems like a pretty accurate take on it, what does everyone else think?

    By the way in the replies of this comment, please don’t make it controversial, just say if you liked it or not, or how accurate you think it was, just don’t go into the details, maybe a little bit of details is ok.

  20. Weatherdan says:

    74 on our way to about 85. Very pleasant indeed. Next week looks to have some more 90,s. We are at 38 presently. Looks like 3-5 more next week. That would give us a new record. Also today is our 64th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. This is now in Salem’s top 5. The record being 90 which was set in 2018. Peace.

    • Hank says:

      Funny, where I live in salem (north part of the metro) I recorded no rain the June 15th night, so for me today is the 67th day of no rain, LETS KEEP THE STREAK ALIVE! No point of having warmest summer ever if its not the driest summer ever, I would be so sad if we woke up to between .01 and .2 inches of rain and it ends our streak, because that’s practically a useless amount of rain, but still enough to end our streak

  21. tim says:

    Good thing they kept Goes 15 for backup since Goes 17 is out again.

  22. Paul D says:

    The outdoor oven is FINALLY off!!!

    • Hank says:

      It’s so amazing!, the cool temps made it much easier for me harvest some of my garden, and it was also good for hiking, got to do a couple today!. But then we go back to above average tomorrow 😐.

      • Gene says:

        No, we go to average tomorrow. Whining about forecast highs of 82/83 seems a bit over the top. We’re done with the 110s and 100s for this summer, and likely the high 90s as well. Enjoy these sunny days in the low 80s that we have coming up!

        • Hank says:

          Actually I wasn’t whining, where I live tommorow will be 86 degrees, and I was stating how the whole summer has been above average, and only a 1 day break, but I’m going to be enjoying the rest of summer while I still have it.

          But I understand why you misunderstood what I said, people whine to much about weather, it’s just weather, nobody can control it (unless your a conspiracy theorists then you think the government controls weather, which I find absurd) I always hate people getting mad at the weatherman because they don’t like the current weather or the weatherman messed up the forecast a bit.

          Anyways, enjoy the rest of your summer!

  23. JERAT416 says:

    This is the coolest high temp today since……when? Does anyone know?

    • Hank says:

      For my weather station in salem, coolest day since June 15th, I recorded a high of 73.6 at my personal station, June 30th was close to today’s temperature, I recorded 74.2 that day.

      A friend of mine who lives in Portland, at his station it recorded a high of 69.9! Barely got under 70 which would make it also the coldest day since June 15th, recorded a high of 67 that day

      If you live in Albany, coolest day since June 30th, recorded 72 that day, 73 today

      If you live in Willsonville Tigard or Oregon city, high of 72 today, coolest day since June 15th

      If you live in the George, anywhere west of Rufus coldest day since June 16th, high of 70 today

      If you live in another town I probably still could find you the information

  24. Anonymous says:

    Loving the weather today! I’d love it even more if we squeaked out a little rain, but I’ll happily take this.

  25. Hank says:

    Still not a drop of rain here in salem, at this rate we will go atleast 77 days without a drop of rain, today is the 66th

  26. Roland Derksen says:

    Nice to get a few showers here yesterday (0.07 inches) and it’s comfortably cool today as well(temperature 61F).

  27. W7ENK says:

    I smell petrichor!

  28. JoeyMarie says:

    I was watering the birdbaths early evening yesterday and I felt the temp drop so dramatically within minutes! I don’t think I’ve ever been so happy. Finally got to turn off the AC and open the windows for that beautiful cool breeze that has forever been eluding us. 😊

  29. Hank says:

    A whopping 39 days 90 or above recorded at my weather station in salem, which is crazy, in 2018 I recorded 30 days, and so far
    7 days 100 or warmer, warmest temp I recorded during June heatwave was 117, warmest during this one was 105, but happy that we probably will only have 3-5 more 90+ days, but atleast watermelons are good this year, harvested my first one 2 days ago and another one today! Also can anyone tell me salems longest dry spell ever? I think 90 but I don’t know if that’s right, so far 65 days since rain has fallen where I live, and I don’t mean 65 days since measurable rain has fallen, I mean 65 days since a single drop fell!

    Enjoy your cool day tommorow everyone! Next cool days will be the 23rd and the 24th!

    -Hank

    • Hank says:

      Also I know I shouldn’t say what I’m about to say but im saying 100% facts and what it would’ve been

      For those of you who think this summer would be no where near as bad without climate change, if i subtracted 1.6 degrees from every 90+ Day, we wouldve had 32 90+ days, so it really doesn’t make much of a difference, and those 7 less days would have been 5 89 degree days and 2 88 degree days, but to the somebody who will reply im a climate change denier, you didn’t even read the part of my comment where I said 1.6 degrees of warming 😐.

      Yet again sorry I went into this, I just had to state what happened

      -Hank

  30. Anonymous says:

    Thanks, Mark! I’ve been ready for autumn since the first heatwave at the end of June. I’ll enjoy the cooler temps and preview of fall coming up while it lasts.

    • Hank says:

      I’m looking forward to fall and winter too! Just enjoy the next mini heatwave, in 3 months you will miss summer, so enjoy the end of it while you can!

      -Hank

      • Anonymous says:

        I never miss summer and I’m always glad to move into fall and winter!

        • Hank says:

          You say that now….. picture the possibility of an arctic outbreak and you had no power, and your house/apartment was very cold, or a week of just heavy rain, are you confident you wouldnt miss summer?

          If you wouldn’t………. you are the most………….. the most…………… you are the most……. 100% agreeable person I have ever talked to!

          You Probably didn’t think I was going to say that.

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