Stable & Warm Summer Weather Pattern Continues

11pm Monday…

A very brief post to let you know the weather has S-L-O-W-E-D down across the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures in Portland have hit 86 or 87 for the last 4 days! Not a lot of variation there.

We are in our summer dry spell with no significant rain in sight. There could be spots of drizzle west of the Cascades when the marine layer thickens Wednesday morning. Other than that, the ECMWF (GFS looks the same) ensembles show almost no chance of measurable rain the next two weeks. That’s through the 20th. ONE ensemble member out of 50 produces all of 0.10″ rain…

Just as unlikely through at least the middle of next week? A heatwave. No sign of that in the 15 day ensemble average, just the usual ups/downs as marine air surges in and out of valleys west of the Cascades.

That’s it for now.

There’s no need to worry about the lack of rain, there’s nothing you or I can do about it. So enjoy the reliable sunshine while it’s here. I’ll be off the rest of the week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

62 Responses to Stable & Warm Summer Weather Pattern Continues

  1. Weatherdan says:

    88 at 4:00PM. Should hit just about 90 for a maximum. This would be the 8th day of 90 or more this month. Only 1 above 93 though. So just on the borderline of hot. Nights generally upper 50,s and lower 60,s so real good sleeping weather. Looks real pleasant next 16 days out. Mainly 80,s. Peace.

  2. tim says:

    Don’t look now but 00zgfs has heatwave by the 24th as we should expect in late July, august will be insanely hot for the lack of heat this month payback is a bi*ch for our cool start to summer.

    • Anonymous says:

      Mid to high 80s with lows in the mid to low 50s isn’t a heatwave. It’s also over two weeks out, no one has any idea how August is going to play out at this point.

    • W7ENK says:

      Tim apparently has the memory capacity of a goldfish…

  3. 5OClockCharlie says:

    KPTV’s 7 day forecast is glorious. 70 degree temps? In July?! Yes please!

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I’ll take it, but our average is only 81. We are conditioned to believe that 85-88 is average.

    • Anonymous says:

      More of that, less of 90+ degree days

    • Gene says:

      I’ll take 80s in July (along with a handful of 90s), as will most Oregonians.

      • 5OClockCharlie says:

        I don’t know a single native that wants 90+ degree temperatures. As for me, any summer temp above 65 and below 85 is perfect for me. That upper part of that range allows for playing comfortably in the water and the lower part makes for great hiking days. Besides, you’ve been accommodated plenty, it’s my turn!

        • Weatherdan says:

          I was born and raised in Salem. Have lived here all my life and love the heat and hate cold rain. Peace.

        • Gene says:

          My point is, we’re going to have a handful of 90s each summer (a dozen to 15, typically), so why not make the best of those days by going to the beach, hanging out at the local pool, running through the sprinklers, etc.)? The rest of the summer will be temps in the 70s and 80s, which most people are fine with.

  4. Opie says:

    Death Valley broke its all time daily average yesterday:

    “A daily record warm low was also set at Death Valley on Friday when temperatures only dropped to 104 degrees. As a result, it set a new all-time record for hottest average daily temperatures (which is the average between the high and the low) of 117 degrees. The previous record was 115.5 degrees, set on July 2, 2013, and August 17, 2020.”

  5. Weatherdan says:

    87 at 1:00PM. That’s 5 degrees Than this rime yesterday when we hit 92. Should hit around 94 today. To me this qualifies as hot. Not record heat but still hot. I have a nagging suspicion that we will have at least one more extreme weather event in Oregon by years end. What it will be I haven’t a clue. But my guess is windstorm. October or November. Hope I am wrong, but nothing surprises me around here anymore. Peace.

  6. tim says:

    Dramatic

  7. tim says:

    Dramatic.

  8. tim says:

    Cliff mass mention today a possible MAJOR pattern change by next weekend he’s so dynamic sometimes i don’t see what he’s seeing in the models that would make him use that word, does anyone?.

    • 5OClockCharlie says:

      00Z Euro and 12Z GFS operational runs are showing cooler weather. I’ve no idea where he’s seeing “wetter” or really any kind of measurable precipitation. Drizzle maybe, but it’ll probably be the kind that evaporates before it even hits the ground hah

  9. tim says:

    The SW is haveing record heat again, at what point does that happen here again this summer, what goes around comes around.

  10. W says:

    81 and sunny at 1:30PM. Should pop out at about the lower 90,s. Peace.

  11. Anonymous says:

    Way too early for anything solid, but it’s looking like it could be an ENSO Neutral winter for us.

  12. Zach says:

    Really digging the longer range solutions on the GFS recently. Lots of Troughing and cool temps.

  13. tim says:

    Interesting to see no heatwave in the models going into late july a bit unusual im sure august will make up for the lack of heat this month.

    • Jake says:

      I’m grateful for it because the trend would’ve been extreme drought conditions for much of Oregon if this weather pattern doesn’t hold.

      It is weird though, I will give it that too, if it holds into August one could argue that we had had a fairly mild and cool Summer with the historic extreme heatwave as an insane outlier in the stats. Super wonky to think about.

    • Roland Derksen says:

      I mentioned earlier that I think we had our maximum temperatures of the year in June. It’s possible, of course to see an equivalent heat wave in August, and possibly even in September, but I’m expecting it won’t happen.

  14. Sun Lover says:

    Why are we constantly having these gray lame days… It’s summer why is the marine layer always so thick? It ruins summer days every year…. this sucks.

    • W7ENK says:

      You must not be from around here…

      Relax, this is normal for our climate.

      • Sun Lover says:

        Oh, I am from “around here”, 23 years to be exact… I am just sick of this gray gloomy marine layer every morning, sometimes all day, while the entire rest of our state is in sunshine. I HATE the marine layer. Gray/cloudy/gloomy = winter, not summer….Portland weather always sucks no matter which way you slice it.

        • Anonymous says:

          We have like 3 more months of warm/hot weather. It’s not like we just didn’t shatter records 3 days straight!!! Lmao

        • W7ENK says:

          Maybe you should move.

        • Jim says:

          Heatwave, wildfires, drought, hurricanes, and CLOUDS are what bothers you? People are suffering everywhere. Have you helped anyone lately?

        • Winter Enthusiast says:

          Exactly. People are so shallow!

        • Michael G. says:

          It took me a long time to get used to the weather. 23 years is not a long time. When you do visit other places that are hot dry sunny places and find yourself longing long to get back then not only are you used to it but, you actually love it here.

        • Opie Dilldock says:

          Must be a NW weather geek thing. Like so many others here I love the marine layer. By September I’m starting to crave the dark, cold and rainy.

    • Anonymous says:

      We’ve hardly had the marine layer this summer, it’s only recently it’s shown up. You claim to have lived here for 23 years so you should know that usually we have much more than what we’ve had so far. If you don’t like the weather in this area, maybe you should move!

    • Roland Derksen says:

      Gee, I’m glad to get these kind of days- especially after last week’s heat! Relax, it’ll heat up again in a couple of days.

  15. W7ENK says:

    So, I take it no one noticed the thunderstorms that developed and slid North along the foothills last night?

    • Mr T (Stayton Oregon) says:

      Something only you must’ve seen! Now go take your meds! 🙂 Now I can jab back at what you tell me for not agreeing to the ‘narrative’.

      As Midna always said in Zelda Twlight Princess too much: ‘Tee Hee hee’

  16. Jake says:

    It is going to take awhile for me to forget that extreme historic heatwave but I’m readily enjoying this cloudy and cool morning. More of this marine air.

    The coming week only looks to maybe touch 90F on Friday. And that is a maybe. Best

    • Paul D says:

      The cloudy morning made my day when I walked out of the house!

      And now it’s actually precipitating in Hillsboro! Probably not measurable, though.

  17. W7ENK says:

    GOLU models says a bunch of smoke has moved in overhead, which should make for a really nice sunset in a few minutes.

    Let’s hope it stays up there, and doesn’t filter in down here overnight…

  18. Weatherdan says:

    87 at 2:00PM. Should be our 4th consecutive day over 90. Our Hot Summer continues. Next 2 days should be in the low 80,s then back to the 90,s by Friday. For me this beats Winter weather by a long ways. Peace.

    • W7ENK says:

      Agreed, I’m loving the weather this past week/weekend, ever since the massive heatwave broke. 115+ was just too much. In fact, I used to say I was good up to 110, but I think this year I’ve recalibrated a bit, and my threshold is somewhere right around 100 now. And now that that’s out of the way, let’s not revisit that again this Summer! 80s and some 90s are fine.

      Although, I definitely wouldn’t mind a decent nocturnal thunderstorm outbreak or two…

  19. Jake says:

    Some of you are commenting on tree damage due to the historic extreme heatwave as I predicted. If it is a tree on your property do this:

    1) Take a water hose and put at the base of the trunk of the tree. Set the water to about your index finger all day. This will allow the water to penetrate the soil far down.

    2) Ideally do this on a cloudy but regardless this works as the tree will provide shade to this watering method.

    3) If you do not do this what damage you see is only residual and is a reaction of the tree to what occurred. Trees respond to pain in dozens of minutes, not seconds. So if the damage is extensive and you don’t water the tree will continue to die off where bark falls off. With the rest of Summer still ahead of us this would prove deadly as any tree without bark cannot retain moisture effectively.

    • W7ENK says:

      That sounds like an incredibly expensive solution for many. Municipal water isn’t cheap, and I don’t think most folks realize just how much it costs until you start using it in excess, like this. Often times, your usual allotment of water “units” is billed at a flat rate that stays relatively stable, however when you start chipping away at additional units (over your normal or allotted monthly usage) the cost increases dramatically because those additional units are billed at a premium rate. What would normally cost me 90 bucks each month for a typical 2 or 3 units often increases to $220-$300/mo in the Summer months by using only 4 or 5 units in total, accounting for the municipal water I’ve used in my garden… hence the 330 gal rain catchment system I built last December to help offset that cost with “free sky water.”

      But, I do understand your sentiment.

      • Jake says:

        I disagree on it not being worth it because trees are expensive as well. Especially if we’re talking time and how much it takes for a full grown tree to establish itself.

        If someone is watering their garden or lawn chances are said tree has roots near that source so to be clear not advocating to water those trees.

        I’m taking emergency day or two at most here of watering for isolated ones. You’d be shocked how fast they can fully brown and this has to be promptly done before that even occurs. Once you have fully branches browning it is too late.

      • J Patrick Moore says:

        In Oregon City, the first $100 of our water bill is all “fees,” which are actually taxes. The actual water usage is rarely more than $40. Watering the trees for a week or so is a good idea right now.

  20. Roland Derksen says:

    There’s a chance I could see some light showers here in BC tomorrow, but I doubt it. At least it’s not too hot for the coming days.

  21. Mountain Man says:

    I haven’t been south down I-5 toward Portland since before the heatwave until this last weekend. I and my 13 yo son noticed the how bad the heat damaged the trees. We asked some friends/people, “oh I haven’t really thought about it, but now that you mentioned it, yeah a lot of the fir trees are a rusty color”, especially on their facing South side. I investigated a little more and almost all the evergreen trees in SW Washington, all there spring growth is dead and ot’s are damaged into years past growth as well.
    It doesn’t seem like anyone is paying any notice, but trees are dying right and left. This can’t be good. I have large acreage in the foothills of Mount Rainier, and even here I have a few hemlock suddenly dying and the trees are dropping needles like crazy.
    I’m just saying, this has got to be a bad thing as our dryest two months start. Even weirder, many people are to tuned out to even notice it.

    • Mountain Man says:

      Sorry about the couple typos 🥱

    • Mountain Man says:

      Anyway, maybe maybe it’s different driving buy it happening in slow motion, but it felt almost apocalyptic to us. I know this blog is sleepy now, but I thought I’d share a perspective.

    • runrain says:

      I’ve noticed it. Especially in many younger trees. And also the dryness of the deciduous trees leaves. They typically dry in Aug/Sep and some fall off just before Fall sets in. That’s happening now, just three weeks into summer.

    • W7ENK says:

      I’ve noticed, I’ve mentioned it, and I even posted a couple photos.

      My box elder maple has begun shedding its burnt leaves, my yard looked more like October over the holiday weekend.

      • Michael G. says:

        I believe trees play a big part in filtering the worlds atmosphere. They take in CO2 and produce oxygen. Also filtering out other toxins and particulate matter that washes to the ground with rain and eventually decomposes in the soil.

        It is said that one acre of trees produces enough oxygen to support 18 people for a year. Don’t know how true, but when I come to my home surrounded by trees/ forestland the temperature is always cooler and I get out of my vehicle feeling better.

        Right now you can see my older higher standing DF trees are showing signs of stress looking kind of sickly. The young ones are doing better of course. We need a wet summer like used to happen every so often.

    • 5OClockCharlie says:

      It 100% has been noticed by everyone I’ve talked to in person so far and it’s been mentioned online countless times now. My poor Japanese maple’s south-facing side has been burnt to a crisp. Many – if not most – people that had any sort of vegetable garden definitely noticed as a lot of plants didn’t survive. I personally lost a good chunk of my plants.

      You’re right to be concerned. The good news as per Mark’s blog is nothing like that is coming again in the next two weeks. The GFS was toying with high temps a few days ago, but thankfully it backed off. This marine layer I’m waking up to each morning has been a blessing too.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      I have noticed and commented on the dying native vegetation for years now. Just on my short drive up I-5 to downtown Portland for work, there are countless visible dead or dying trees. It’s even noticeable driving through the coast range which gets far more precipitation than the valley.

      Between ongoing drought and warmth, fires, and the recent ice storm, our natural beauty has really taken a beating.

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