Historic Blast of Heat Now A Near Certainty This Weekend

11pm Friday…

I’ve been a bit busy on TV this evening…7 shows!

THE BIG MESSAGE

The next three days bring an extraordinary and unprecedented surge of heat not seen during recorded history west of the Cascades. That’s a dramatic statement, but I’m quite confident it’s going to happen.

HIGHLIGHTS

Our forecast hasn’t changed much, with a few caveats:

1) We should PROBABLY raise Sunday and Monday’s 110 degree forecast to 112-114. That’s because just about all models are pushing us into the 110-115 degree range both days. For tonight I left it the same. But does it really matter at this point? There’s always tomorrow to up things a couple degrees

2) Models just about all agree that the thermal low (hottest air) will still be over us 3-5pm Monday. That’s why we’ve upped Monday’s high temperature forecast to 110. It’s possible Salem, Albany, & Eugene are down closer to 100 that day

3) Excellent agreement that a major marine push drops us around 15 degrees Tuesday…which means that day will be similar to today, around 95.

4) Easterly wind might just touch the far northern Oregon and southern Washington coastline during the daytime Sunday. The result could be spots that spike well into the 90s. Anywhere between Tillamook and Long Beach. An example…it’s possible that at 3pm Sunday it’s 80 at the Tillamook Bay jetty, 85 at Garibaldi, 90 in Tillamook, and 100 at the eastern edge of the valley up against the Coast Range. Just an example.

4) This is a dangerous heat wave for those without air conditioning; we have never experienced these conditions in our area. You will not be able to cool down apartments/homes Saturday and Sunday nights. As mentioned in #1, it’s possible Sunday afternoon features temperatures 110-115 with a dry easterly wind. Add in low relative humidity in the metro area and you get absolutely unreal and hellish conditions for our area.

The 3 Day Forecast is crazy…

And the 7 Day…

For comparison, the hottest temperatures on record in our area

All records in the valleys are 107-109. We’re going to exceed at least some of these numbers

Eastern Oregon in general is hotter in summer so records are higher. Note Oregon’s all-time high is Pendleton at 119 degrees. We used to think Prineville shared that record (119), but it’s unlikely that ever happened. Washington’s all-time high is 118 at Ice Harbor Dam just east of the Tri-Cities.

Some of these records could be broken. Maybe Bend, The Dalles, or La Grande. We will see!

I’ll be working through the weekend and into next week. Stay tuned and make sure you are following me on Facebook: @marknelsenweather and Twitter: @marknelsenKPTV. I will be updating those much more frequently than this blog. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

17 Responses to Historic Blast of Heat Now A Near Certainty This Weekend

  1. Hank says:

    Forecast for Saturday and Sunday in salem Keizer from all websites I know and models I can get.
    Weather.com 106 115
    Weather.gov 105 110 always undershoots by atleast 3 degrees myforecast.co 102 110
    Accuweather.com 107 115
    Weatherbug.com 105 115
    Timeanddate.com 102 110 infamously undershoots
    Weatherstreet.com 104 115
    Weather-forecast.com 103 115
    Weatheravenue.com 103 117
    Weatherwx.com 103 114
    12z ecmwf 105 115
    12z gfs 104 114
    12z icon 108 117
    12z Norway 106 115
    12z Serbia-mos 104 115
    My forecast, 105 114,
    Salem alltime record 108, June record 105,
    Stay cool out there folks and check in on old people you know, atleast 2 times a day if possible
    And ill be back for the 18z

  2. ocpaul says:

    A few days of hot weather

    or…an inch and a half of ice, 20 trees down, no power for 10 days, 48 degree house temp.

    I hate hot weather, but still…

  3. runrain says:

    How awful to not get our record high but have it feel worse because of high dewpoints!

  4. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    The only job of onshore flow is to preserve our records whether it be summer or winter. What a joke.

    • Anonymous says:

      Lol, everything is moving right on time. You are being dramatic. We are going to beat our all time high tomorrow.

  5. 82F dewpoint 69F.
    1.3 km wrf gfs would have low 80s tonite, ? 90F Sunday nite… at this location

  6. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Possible bust for high temps due to continued onshore flow. But that means higher humidity.

  7. W7ENK says:

    Anyone else notice how disgustingly high the dewpoint is right now?

    That’s gotta be pushing some kind of a record. I suppose our only consolation is that humid air takes a whole helluva lot more energy to heat than dry air, so maybe this will keep the daily max down? The unfortunate flip-side to that, humid air also retains a ton of latent heat, so it’s not going to cool off very quickly overnight.

    That offshore flow can kick in any time now… PLEASE?!?

    • Zach says:

      Yeah they were saying 107 today right? I’d be shocked if that happens because I am seeing 91F at Portland noon.

  8. Hank says:

    Forecast for Saturday and Sunday from all models I can get and all websites I know, your welcome for numbers 😉
    Weather.com 107 116
    Weather.gov 102 109 weather.gov always undershoots atleast 3 degrees so this gives me confidence in record highs.
    Myforecast.co 102 110
    Accuweather.com 106 115
    Weatherbug.com 105 115
    Timeanddate.com 103 110
    Weatherstreet.com 104 113
    Weather-forecast.com 103 114
    Weatheravenue.com 103 113
    Weatherwx.com 103 113
    Theweathernetwork.com 101 109
    00z ecmwf 106 115
    00z gfs 103 113
    00z Access-g 103 111
    00z icon 110 116
    00z norway 106 115
    00z Serbia-mos 105 115.
    Salem alltime record high is 108, June record high is 105.
    My forecast 106 114 105, seems like this is the new normal for me, giving salems temperatures after 12z 18z and 00z, I can’t do 6z since that’s in the middle of the night, stay cool out there folks 😎.

  9. paulbeugene says:

    I raise a champagne glass to toast us getting toasted

  10. Hestu says:

    https://zelda.fandom.com/wiki/Hestu%27s_Gift

    “From all of us (Koroks) to all of you we wish you a merry Christmas” to quote a certain Disney Character:

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      Temp jumped 6 degrees in an hour here. Up to 96 now. I’m thinking I will top out around 102.

  11. Korok#900 says:

    YAHAHA! You found me! Here’s your seed! (You get the final seed! You must take this to Hestu)

%d bloggers like this: