Historic Blast of Heat Now A Near Certainty This Weekend

11pm Friday…

I’ve been a bit busy on TV this evening…7 shows!

THE BIG MESSAGE

The next three days bring an extraordinary and unprecedented surge of heat not seen during recorded history west of the Cascades. That’s a dramatic statement, but I’m quite confident it’s going to happen.

HIGHLIGHTS

Our forecast hasn’t changed much, with a few caveats:

1) We should PROBABLY raise Sunday and Monday’s 110 degree forecast to 112-114. That’s because just about all models are pushing us into the 110-115 degree range both days. For tonight I left it the same. But does it really matter at this point? There’s always tomorrow to up things a couple degrees

2) Models just about all agree that the thermal low (hottest air) will still be over us 3-5pm Monday. That’s why we’ve upped Monday’s high temperature forecast to 110. It’s possible Salem, Albany, & Eugene are down closer to 100 that day

3) Excellent agreement that a major marine push drops us around 15 degrees Tuesday…which means that day will be similar to today, around 95.

4) Easterly wind might just touch the far northern Oregon and southern Washington coastline during the daytime Sunday. The result could be spots that spike well into the 90s. Anywhere between Tillamook and Long Beach. An example…it’s possible that at 3pm Sunday it’s 80 at the Tillamook Bay jetty, 85 at Garibaldi, 90 in Tillamook, and 100 at the eastern edge of the valley up against the Coast Range. Just an example.

4) This is a dangerous heat wave for those without air conditioning; we have never experienced these conditions in our area. You will not be able to cool down apartments/homes Saturday and Sunday nights. As mentioned in #1, it’s possible Sunday afternoon features temperatures 110-115 with a dry easterly wind. Add in low relative humidity in the metro area and you get absolutely unreal and hellish conditions for our area.

The 3 Day Forecast is crazy…

And the 7 Day…

For comparison, the hottest temperatures on record in our area

All records in the valleys are 107-109. We’re going to exceed at least some of these numbers

Eastern Oregon in general is hotter in summer so records are higher. Note Oregon’s all-time high is Pendleton at 119 degrees. We used to think Prineville shared that record (119), but it’s unlikely that ever happened. Washington’s all-time high is 118 at Ice Harbor Dam just east of the Tri-Cities.

Some of these records could be broken. Maybe Bend, The Dalles, or La Grande. We will see!

I’ll be working through the weekend and into next week. Stay tuned and make sure you are following me on Facebook: @marknelsenweather and Twitter: @marknelsenKPTV. I will be updating those much more frequently than this blog. 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen