An Early Summer Soaking; Wettest Weather Since February

8pm Sunday…

Quite a soaker eh? A warm and humid southerly flow has given the metro area somewhere around an inch of rain since it started yesterday evening. PDX has officially picked up .86″ as of 7pm with more approaching. I’m guessing that by the end of today (as early as 9pm?) WE WILL SEE MORE RAIN OUT OF THIS THAN ALL OF APRIL + MAY COMBINED! In a typical spring we’d get something like this maybe every few weeks. Not this drought year. The numbers so far…

By the way, in Portland we’ve haven’t seen this much precipitation in two days since…wait for it…the big snowstorm day! That’s Friday, February 12th (and into Saturday the 13th). Of course it was all frozen precipitation (mainly snow) that day for much of the metro area.

A few areas have picked up over 1.50″…notice all (so far) over/west of I-5. Models have done very well sending the heaviest rain over there. This map isn’t real pretty, but it shows any location that has picked up about 1.50″ or more as of 7pm. That’s a huge soaking around Salem and Corvallis.

Of course in a warm and humid airmass with southerly flow one can expect thunderstorms in the Pacific Northwest. We’ve seen quite a few fire up over north-central Oregon, even as far west as the eastern edges of the metro area. In fact at 7:30pm this soaker was right over the Hood River Valley. Luckily it’s moving fast so the heavy rain won’t last long. You don’t want a 3.50″ hourly rain rate to sit still…

Ahead of today’s system, it’s been HOT in Eastern Oregon. Check out the afternoon numbers…close to 100 in a few spots!

What’s ahead?

More humid and warm weather tonight as the main upper-level low continues to spin offshore.

But good lifting that would produce significant rain tonight and tomorrow seems to go away. So showers continue tonight, but then we get a break again tomorrow. Other than leftover morning showers (mainly east metro), it should be a MUCH brighter day and mainly dry. Sure, maybe a shower here and there, but widely scattered stuff. Lots of fresh rain-cleaned air too.

As the cool upper-level finally “kicks out” to the northeast and over us Tuesday, we get a round of showers. Maybe a thundershower midday too…maybe.

By midweek the hot upper-level ridge to our east has been pushed south & east. But then a new ridge is developing in this spring’s favored position; in the Gulf of Alaska. That leads to weak and warm westerly flow to our north. This is a warmer than normal pattern for mid-June, but not hot. 850mb temps on our models are generally well under 20 degrees with no sign of significant offshore flow. So our forecast highs remain in the 80s for now. Weather systems will stay away Wednesday through at least next weekend.

Looking farther ahead (this map shows anomaly), the pattern remains the same through early NEXT week. This is NEXT Tuesday. We don’t have a hot ridge of high pressure overhead, but it’s close enough to cut off any rain chance. That’s what we’ve seen much of this past spring.

The ECMWF ensemble forecast for 24 hour rain is the driest I’ve seen in weeks. Very few members produce even light showers over the next two weeks (after Tuesday). So…this was a one-shot deal rain-wise.

Enjoy the rest of the rain this evening, and you can look forward to some warm sunshine later this week as a July-like weather pattern arrives.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

24 Responses to An Early Summer Soaking; Wettest Weather Since February

  1. tim says:

    Wow the 12z gfs is showing highs around 100 for seattle on the 29th, our long hot summer is just getting started.

  2. Jake says:

    I almost feel the rain we had was as if we’re in a documentary with some narrator speaking in Australian about some terrible drought where some rain occurred.

    But alas, it was not enough before the poor Zebra herd had its last watering hole go kaput’.

    No matter how one cuts it. This will be a dry Summer for much of Oregon. Locally we’re okay, that’s easy to say with Mt. Hood near by, much of the rest of the State doesn’t have snow melt to count on.

  3. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Mark’s post isn’t aging well. Mid 90s on Sunday, about 100 on Monday, and back to the 90s or warmer at the end of the week. That is just stupid hot for June.

    When it’s all said and done, it will be another warmer and drier than normal month here in Upper California. Close to record warm.

    • Gene says:

      Mark: “Very few members produce even light showers over the next two weeks (after Tuesday). So…this was a one-shot deal rain-wise.” And: “A July-like weather pattern arrives.” Looks like his post is spot-on — the opposite of what you wrote!

  4. Evan -- Cedar Mill says:

    Barring a miracle it is panic time for the West.

  5. W7ENK says:

    Hey, take a looks at what’s poised to move in over the nice, sunny weekend…

  6. boydo3 says:

    We down here on the south coast got the goodies. 4.88″ in 2 days. The slugs are loving it!

  7. Andrew says:

    feels like we could see more widespread thunderstorms this afternoon.

  8. Roland Derksen says:

    Some light showers here this morning. My total for the month is 1.80 inches, which isn’t bad- considering we have another 15 days to go.

  9. Mike says:

    Well it’s raining pretty hard this morning so much for showers and sunnier

  10. W7ENK says:

    I’m very happy to see the lot of you whining nihilists were wrong.
    My garden thanks you!

    0.15″ Friday
    0.22″ Saturday
    0.74″ Sunday

    For a weekend total of 1.11″

    Was helping a friend move yesterday, heard a couple long, rolling peals of thunder to the East of Powell Butte right around 5pm. The whole day was reminiscent of August in the Upper Midwest.

    A few hours break in the rain last evening gave way to more of a constant light dripping that lasted all night, and continues still this morning. I see some heaver spots now embedded, approaching from my South on radar.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      Nihilists? Haven’t heard that word used to describe people that are understandably skeptical about rainfall meeting or exceeding expectations.

      Anyway, very glad to have been wrong. Yesterday was epic.

      • W7ENK says:

        Your (and others’) constant pessimistic “skepticism” undoubtedly rises to the level of nihilism. It doesn’t stop, and it gets old real quick.

        Move North. You’ll (but probably won’t) be happier.

        At the very least, please stop with the incessant whining.

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          I can only take so much disappointment until it festers into negativity. I’m sure it’s annoying for you and others to read.

          You know what though? It’s cathartic for me. I don’t attack anybody personally. Deal with it.

          If you buy me a house in Ketchikan, I’ll head on up.

        • Mr T says:

          Since when did W7ENK became a backseat moderator? I thought this was Mark’s blog not W7ENK’s blog where he can put people down as he pleases?

        • 5OClockCharlie says:

          It’s a weather blog… whining is half the fun. It’s weird to see people get all bent out of shape on here over the silliest things. This is the last place I’d expect personal attacks and elitist bravado. It’s just so meaningless – anywhere really – here especially. Ya’ll need to take a breath every now and then if this place is causing you so much grief

    • Paul D says:

      I’m completely thrilled to be wrong!! Over an inch of rain in Hillsboro!

  11. tim says:

    It’s only a matter of time before that hot ridge parks over us for the summer.

  12. Anonymous says:

    I’ve missed the rain, especially in these quantities. Crossing my fingers we get a couple of summer soakers this year

  13. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Thank you for the update Mark. It’s been nice to see the rain for the past couple of days. We’ll see what happens the next couple of weeks.

    First

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