Typical Early June Weather Turns Humid This Weekend

10pm Tuesday…

We’re into summer now (at least weather-wise) and things are relatively slow for meteorologists in the Pacific Northwest. Of course we had the hot weather last week and now we’re back below normal with the temps in the 60s the past few days

Today we’ve seen showers roaming throughout the area as an upper-level low sits just offshore. It’s strange because we can’t see them well or show on TV. That’s because the NWS is doing some maintenance on their radar = no coverage over our area for a week. Better now than in January…

Looking ahead, expect the same partly cloudy sky tomorrow. Just a few showers may pop up in the cool air overhead. We have an upper-level low just offshore that should weaken and push inland Thursday. But a new trough is dropping down into the Eastern Pacific

So we get a dry day Thursday (or nearly dry), then the leading cold front with the next system gives us a wet day Friday. That’s the easy part of the forecast. Less than 0.25″ rain now through late Friday.

Then things get much trickier…the next upper-level low digs straight south, pushing up a hot ridge just east of us. This could push Eastern Oregon into the 90s by Sunday, while a lingering front and warm southerly flow keeps skies cloudier west of the Cascades. By Monday the pattern is quite “meridional”, meaning flow is south-north instead of west-east. A slight pattern shift west or east this weekend will make a huge difference down here where we live.

And models are pushing a LOT of moisture north. Check out the Saturday evening map of “precipitable water”. Up to 1.50″ or so.

This lingers through Monday. Expect mild/humid weather (regardless of rainfall totals) Saturday evening through Monday; we haven’t seen that yet this season.

How much rain? Very tough call right now. This much moisture around means someone in the region COULD get a big soaking, which would be nice! The 18z Euro ensembles (51 members averaged on this map) showed at least 0.50″ for ALL of western Oregon and SW Washington north of Eugene. About 1/3rd of the members produce more than 1″ rain in Portland…that would be nice, although it would mess up any weekend outdoor plans

We will see how this pans out, but I think the big message is that there is no stretch of guaranteed dry weather the next 7 days. Wait until after we get past this weekend to see if we’ll enter a warmer/drier pattern heading into the 2nd half of June.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to Typical Early June Weather Turns Humid This Weekend

  1. Mike says:

    Marked eastern boundary to rainfall. KEUG has had 1.27 and 10 miles east we’ve had half that. Another ten miles east and half ours. No thunder here.

  2. Ken in Wood Village says:

    Just heard some thunder in my area a few minutes ago ๐Ÿค—โ›ˆ

  3. Andy says:

    Been a few years since this much rain has fallen in the Albany Corvallis area in June. I feel bad for the farmers that have hay cut and the grass seed farmers that have been dealing with the dryer weather so far and now the potential for mold…if it wasn’t for the warmer temps you would think it is a very rainy November day.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Rain has been coming down hard for about a half hour and based on the radar, will continue to until at least 7 tonight

  5. Roland Derksen says:

    The rain has stopped here for the time being- not a lot of it so far (just 0.39 inches in my gauge) but more is coming. What is intresting is that the temperature is a lot cooler than what was forecasted earlier. We were expecting an afternoon high around 72F here- it might get up into the mid-60’s, if the sun peaks through, but that’s all.

  6. tim says:

    The record 80 pluse days in june for seattle is 13 in 2015 with 2 so far and gfs is showing over a weeks and a half of 80s starting Thursday so i think we could at lest tie it, 2015 summer? well see.

  7. Andy says:

    What a soaker here in Albany…it will be interesting what the totals are…this storm didn’t underperform this time.

  8. Anonymous says:

    Seems to me this rain will actually be detrimental to the snowpack that remains and will just add fuel to eastern areas

  9. Anonymous says:

    Pouring in LO

  10. Andy says:

    Moderate rain here in Albany…hoping for .50 to 1.00 through Sunday. We can really use this rain in western Oregon.

  11. Brad says:

    How much rain are we expecting tonight/overnight for Tigard area?

  12. Anonymous says:

    Rain started here (~8 miles SW of downtown PDX) about 20 minutes ago

  13. Roland Derksen says:

    Looks like we’ll get e good dose of rain here tomorrow and another on tuesday. That’s fine with me, if we’re heading for a warm dry summer.

  14. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    That has close to 0% chance of verifying. The operational is warmer than any ensemble member.

  15. tim says:

    gfs18z is showing mid 90’s for seattle end of june great start to summer.

  16. tim says:

    Still looking forward to our long hot/dry strech second half of june after all this weekend rain, love the 6-10 and 8-14 outlook.

  17. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    As I was afraid of and called on Thursday, this is looking more and more like a bust. It might be a coast to coast range only event if things keep progressing westward. The 06z GFS gives the Portland metro area .10โ€ – .30โ€ through Monday morning. Well, actually through June 28th.

    You wonder why Iโ€™m so pessimistic, W7? I think we are at close to 15 or even 20 underperforming events in a row. Yesterday counts as one too.

  18. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Looks like my .10โ€™โ€™ forecast for today was too optimistic. Seattle sextupled us even though we were heavily favored leading up to this.

    Saturday night/Sunday is sure looking like a west of I-5 event in Oregon. Olympia, Tacoma, and Seattle will score like they always do.

  19. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Bust starting to take shape? The ECMWF keeps moving the the bullseye of the precipitation swath to the west. With the SW to NE flow, thatโ€™s puts far NW Oregon and western Washington in the bullseye.

    The 00z NAM is backing way off on rain totals.

    The 00z GEM is backing off big-time through Saturday. Puts us right on the eastern edge of the bullseye of a mini atmospheric river on Sunday. It too has shifted west.

    The 00z HRRR backed way off through Saturday afternoon.

    The trend is clear.

    • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

      00z GFS still bullish.

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        12z models looking really good so far.

        • Zach says:

          Almost at the point now to just start looking at mesoscale

        • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

          Yep. 4km WRF-GFS goes out to 84 hours. HRRR to 48 hours for 6z, 12z, 18z, and 00z. NAM 3k out to 60.

          I’m sticking with my .60” prediction through Sunday for PDX. Looks like we could pick up a little more early next week.

  20. Roland Derksen says:

    We’ve had showers on 7 of the past 8 days, but they so far have only amounted to 0.55 inches.

  21. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    Whatโ€™s everyoneโ€™s predictions for total rainfall at PDX from tomorrow until it all wraps up by the end of Sunday?

    Iโ€™m going with .60โ€.

    GFS, GEM, and UKMET are very bullish. ECMWF and ICON are backing off. GRAF and NAM support prediction. HRRR way too bullish for tomorrow.

    I think we will end up with .10โ€ or so tomorrow, .20โ€ late Saturday, and .30โ€ on Sunday.

    That would be a bust in my book based on current model output. I hope Iโ€™m wrong.

  22. tim says:

    Models are showing a very long hot strech starting end of next week and the cfs climate models take it into early july, a hot fourth would be a nice change for once.

    • Mr T says:

      ๐Ÿคฎ๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž ^^^^^^^^^(Aridzona Troll) ^^^^^^^.

  23. Paul D says:

    Hillsboro will get 0.05″ out of it.

  24. Roland Derksen says:

    Looks like a typical old style June pattern to me. Up here, we’ll miss most of the heat, but it won’t be cold showers at least.

  25. W7ENK says:

    Pineapple Express, anyone?

    • W7ENK says:

      No idea why my phone only post thumbnails…

      Let’s try that again from the PC this time.

      • Zach says:

        We finally appear to have a source of significant moisture again. Feels like we haven’t seen anything like this since mid Feb….

      • Joshua Lake Oswego says:

        12z Euro and GEM on board too. I will believe it when itโ€™s within 24 hours. Small adjustments in the positioning of the high to our east and low to our west will make a huge difference. We could end up high and dry or hosed.

    • 5OClockCharlie says:

      I freakin hope so! That’ll slightly delay the inevitable arrival of hellfire smoke and allow me more opportunities to go camping. I suspect we’ll be in high fire danger in the mountains by week 2 or 3 of July but I sincerely hope I’m wrong. In fact it would be so refreshing to get some measurable rain in July… can’t believe I’m saying that given how much I whine incessantly about the rain in winter, but here we are ๐Ÿ˜

      • Jake says:

        I hope so too and you’re wrong about hellfire and smoke being inevitable.

        Saying this joyousness / eagerness we’d have a cool and wet Summer if a pineapple express started to become a pattern going forward.

        Think about it, July and August around the corner in regard to weather (patterns take weeks sometimes a month to unfold). A pineapple express now would mean a wet and cool Summer.

        Our temperate Mediterranean climate’s equivalent of a monsoon event. We cannot quite get a monsoon season because we’re not in the tropics but still really cool (pun not intended) to see!

  26. Joshua Lake Oswego says:

    We are running >4 degrees above normal in June and have .10โ€ of rain for the month. I donโ€™t think warmer and drier is something we need to worry about.

  27. tim says:

    Wow, more rain on the way just what we need here in w wa is summer ever gonna start?, geez.

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