We’re into summer now (at least weather-wise) and things are relatively slow for meteorologists in the Pacific Northwest. Of course we had the hot weather last week and now we’re back below normal with the temps in the 60s the past few days
Today we’ve seen showers roaming throughout the area as an upper-level low sits just offshore. It’s strange because we can’t see them well or show on TV. That’s because the NWS is doing some maintenance on their radar = no coverage over our area for a week. Better now than in January…
Looking ahead, expect the same partly cloudy sky tomorrow. Just a few showers may pop up in the cool air overhead. We have an upper-level low just offshore that should weaken and push inland Thursday. But a new trough is dropping down into the Eastern Pacific
So we get a dry day Thursday (or nearly dry), then the leading cold front with the next system gives us a wet day Friday. That’s the easy part of the forecast. Less than 0.25″ rain now through late Friday.
Then things get much trickier…the next upper-level low digs straight south, pushing up a hot ridge just east of us. This could push Eastern Oregon into the 90s by Sunday, while a lingering front and warm southerly flow keeps skies cloudier west of the Cascades. By Monday the pattern is quite “meridional”, meaning flow is south-north instead of west-east. A slight pattern shift west or east this weekend will make a huge difference down here where we live.
And models are pushing a LOT of moisture north. Check out the Saturday evening map of “precipitable water”. Up to 1.50″ or so.
This lingers through Monday. Expect mild/humid weather (regardless of rainfall totals) Saturday evening through Monday; we haven’t seen that yet this season.
How much rain? Very tough call right now. This much moisture around means someone in the region COULD get a big soaking, which would be nice! The 18z Euro ensembles (51 members averaged on this map) showed at least 0.50″ for ALL of western Oregon and SW Washington north of Eugene. About 1/3rd of the members produce more than 1″ rain in Portland…that would be nice, although it would mess up any weekend outdoor plans
We will see how this pans out, but I think the big message is that there is no stretch of guaranteed dry weather the next 7 days. Wait until after we get past this weekend to see if we’ll enter a warmer/drier pattern heading into the 2nd half of June.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen